The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of June 17th

The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of June 17th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies. Our current performance is showing more than a 284% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This week, I am managing trades in Sugar, Natural Gas, Corn and Gold and looking to possibly initiate new trades in Lumber, Lean Hogs, Soy, Coffee, and Live Cattle.

All trades posted here are discussed in detail in our Daily Update Subscription Service and posted on our private Twitter feed. This past week, I exited my Corn trade and also was stopped out on Natural Gas. I also added size Friday to the Gold trade and hold an average at 1291 currently. Our track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.

The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: Click Here for a FREE Trial

 

Soy – Re-entering the Trade

5-27 – Gap up last week on the news about the China Tariffs being put on hold. This news reaction will unwind and I am still expecting lower lows into the 990 area. From here I am interested in a long as this is the completion of a flat. We can retrace to the trend line but lower prices are expected.

6-3 – Still waiting on the setup for the long in Soy. When I see 990 I start getting interested. Low window into mid June is where time and price should come together. Being patient and waiting on the setup.

6-10 – After the interruption of the trend with a news reaction on China tariffs, price action and the trend has reasserted itself. We have achieved target on Soy and I am looking this week for an entry. I like to capture the dominate trend on the daily chart and weekly chart, the trend is up in Soy. Positive D this week and I will begin a 1/2 size position.

6-17 – I  have started a new position on Soy and the tariff news has driven price lower. At this point I see a big cycle low this week and am holding until I see the price action. I expect 917 to hold. The rally Friday was a dead cat bounce, we should see a full retest of the low and likely a lower low before we see a reversal.

 

Sugar – Managing the Trade

4-29 – I have doubled my size in Sugar at $11.34 and it appears we may have a turn. For now we are three up and a re-test down to $11.45, the weekly pivot, should call price higher into $12.50s by May 12th. Divergence has held so we have a candidate low. Time will tell if this is the turn or just a flag setting up a lower low.

5-6 – I have taken 1/3 off the Sugar trade in profits at 11.80 and am watching with interest the current test of the support trend line. If it holds we likely see the next legg higher into 12.25-50 or so. If it breaks, there is risk to 10.50. Bigger picture, I am looking for a major turn in Sugar and higher prices. So far the structure is very flaggy, so the declining resistance trend line is key this week.

5-13 – Sugar has traded lower and I have been stopped put of my second entry at 11.34. I continue to hold my original 1/2 size entry and plan to add lower. Target are 10.50 and possible a double bottom at $11.00. From a timing standpoint, sugar is past the low window of 4-24 so I am expecting a double bottom this week and a turn into $12.50

5-20 – Sugar has turned and is forming a flag channel. Resistance at 12.10 may cause the lower trend line to break and open the lower target at 10.50. If we break up above 12.10 we have a good chance of breaking out. The lower trend line must hold for higher prices to occur.

5-27 – Sugar has broken the flag that we have been discussing and that is a bullish sign. The retest of the broken trend line is key this week as we are in a retest and I am expecting to see support in the 11.80 area. I exited the second 1/3 size position at 12.50 this week and plan to enter a new position on the retest. I am leaving the trailer on for now. There is risk on the break of the lower channel trend line to 10.50

6-3 – 2/3s off and holding my trailer in Sugar. We rejected after a 5 up structure so likely we see a retrace into 12.10-12.30. I will be adding a new position and plan to carry my trailer higher into July.

6-10 – Still holding my trailer on Sugar and I am about to add size. I missed the perfect add at the broken trend line which is what I advised my clients this week. Retest of last week’s low is what I am looking for and roughly 11.90ish or so. I am a buyer of Sugar into the July window.

6-17 – We have reached the shallow three back area on Sugar and I will be looking to add size this week for the next impulse higher. Next high window is 7-20 and I am looking for roughly $13.50-$14.00.

 

Natural Gas – Entering the Trade

5-27 – Natural appears to be in a channel here and I am expecting resistance in the $3.00-3.05 area. Timing cycles are pointing lower and a retest of the current low is likely. I am expecting 2.40 by Mid July. I have entered Natural Gas 1/2 size short at 2.97 and plan to add the second 1/2 after a full reversal is signaled. There is still a chance to see a higher high here with neg D on RSI which would sweeten this setup. All entries for the weekly call are posted on our private twitter feed.

6-3 – I have taken 1/3 off in profit on the first decline at 2.897 as posted on our private twitter feed. I am looking to potentially add size if $3.00 is breached as a higher high is still possible. I am planning the low into the cycle window of 7-14 and have another cycle low into August to consider.

6-10 – I have taken another 1/3 in profit in Natural because we have morphed into a potential triangle. This may or may not be a triangle so if we break the swing low, I will add size on the conversion. More likely however is a break higher into 3.05-3.10. My stop is at even and if stopped out, I will re-enter higher.

6-17 – Stopped out of my last 1/3 in NG as we have broken in the $3.00 area as discussed. Likely we see a reversal pattern between 3.05 and 3.10. I am still expecting the move lower into 2.40, the triangle that emerged is driving a termination move higher. I will be planning another entry when a reversal pattern is seen. Last trade completed with two leggs in profit and a 31% profit on margin.

 

Live Cattle – Entering the Trade

5-20 – Live Cattle is in the last legg lower into the 18 month cycle window. I am expecting a major turn and a big rally from that area. We have not yet broken Wave y which should occur this week. This will set up positive D on RSI which is what I want to see before choosing my entry. I had a similar trade when I started the Weekly Call in October of 2016, this turn should not disappoint.

5-27 – Patiently waiting on lower prices and the 18 month cycle low on Live Cattle. We are approaching the slaughter peak and seasonality should press prices lower. I am still expecting wave y to break and see a lower low into our cycle date.

6-3 – Live Cattle may retest this week and then move higher. The 18 month cycle window may already be in. The retest this week if it finds support at 100.20 will call price higher into the 7/7 window and $108. If the trend line demonstrates support, I plan to enter long.

6-10  – Live Cattle price is inside the channel and heading into my cycle date. A retest is coming this week, so the lower trend line may be seen. This is a decent entry if the trend line holds. I like Cattle long into November.

6-17 – Lower trend line support on Friday as the retest occurred as expected. – Looks good long into 108.60s and the 7-7 high window.

 

Coffee – Entering the Trade

5-13 – A small retest is needed at this point into 120s and then lower prices expected into 114s as mentioned. This is the perfect area for the alternate to play out which would be a rally into 130s. Although my lean is lower, I am watching for the possible alternate this week which would play out Monday/Tuesday if seen. Given the seasonality, I am expecting this to continue lower into 114s and setup a turn in the next week or so.

5-20 – No change in forecast, seasonality points lower and I am still expecting 114s. We will likely get there after the current retest finishes into 120.

5-27 – The retest appears done and I am expecting lower prices into 114s. Commercial sentiment has not shifted yet and I am watching this with interest as we are approaching the Brazil harvest season.

6-3 – Coffee may be forming a flag here. I am still expecting lower prices after we finish the three up. I am expecting a low in the month of July. A short entry may present itself this week which I will be looking for.

6-10 – Seasonality still driving the bus on Coffee as previously mentioned. Likely the move continues lower into the July cycle date and 114s. We have a lot of time to consider a major reversal in Coffee. – No rush to get long here, just keeping it on my radar for now.

6-17 – Retest and lower, still waiting on the long and the turn. Likely an 18 month cycle low in July in a few weeks. We now have a new low and also positive D, so I will be looking for a reversal pattern.

Lean Hogs – Entering the Trade

4-29 – Lean hogs is an interesting chart and is setting up for a rally. A lower low into my cycle date may get me long with a target roughly in the $90 area. I like the commercial and retail COT positions here and I also like the seasonality long into June. I will be posting my entry on lean hogs and the other commodities listed here on The Art of Chart private twitter feed.

5-6 – We are now past the cycle window and may have turned. The current price action may be the retest. I like this long and will be looking for a possible lower low to set up positive D on RSI. Commercial sentiment favors a rally here.

5-13 – So far so good on the rally. Expecting continuation higher into the 6-11 high window. The monthly pivot at 74.025 must now hold as support.

5-20 – Monthly pivot holding as expected and we are set up for a rally this week. I am expecting the upper trend line and roughly $83 next. A break of the channel signals and confirms that the X wave and turn are confirmed.

5-27 – So far the channel is holding and bulls must perform here as a break of last week’s low would cause a retest of the current low. The turn is not confirmed yet and I am waiting to see if we complete the first three up. Upon completion, I plan to enter on the retest.

6-3 – Bull have performed so the are still alive here. Three up into the next cycle date of 6-11 is expected. The retest after that move is key to the rally and $78 needs to hold. I will be considering a long entry at that time.

6-10 – Reversal coming this week in Lean Hogs, a higher high first then the turn. Likely we see the lower trend line. If it holds, we see a strong move higher into October. Watching for a break of the RSI price cycle to indicate the beginning of the retracement.

6-17 – Cycle date has passed and we are at target and the retest has begin. Lower prices expected into 74.80-75 and the tren dline. If support is found we should see higher prices into October. Break the flag and we open a retest of the low. Big decision this weel in Hogs.

 

Gold – Entering the Trade

6-3 – Gold is at an inflection point and DX is turning. I entered a long in Gold last week at 1302.1 and may add size this week if we see 1290. Right now I am small, 1/2 size on this setup and am looking for a high in the July time frame. No stop on this trade as I am managing risk with size.

6-10 – DX turned beautifully as expected, and Gold is a bit disappointing here. Silver and Copper have rallied nicely, Gold is lagging. Trend line needs to hold this week, the lean is higher into the July cycle date. Holding my current 1/2 size and I may take first profit at 1314 or 1328.

6-17 – ECB news Thursday and a big rally in the US Dollar and a dump in metals. The trend line which was support has broken and we are in the alternate scenario which is price heading fopr a touch of the lower trend line of the wedge into 1270-80. Likely we see another legg lower and a reversal pattern this week. DX is driving the bus and this turn will depend on a reversal in the US dollar. I have added a second legg at 1281 and am now holding a full size position.

 

 

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.


Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

There is a substantial risk of loss of capital when trading and/or investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

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Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.

 

About the Author

Stan Nabozny
Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. A registered Commodity Trading Advisor, his specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies. Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics . Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

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