The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of Sept 16th

The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of Sept 16th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies. Our current performance shows a 290% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.

This week I am focused on re-entries in Sugar and Coffee based on the current forecast. I have taken all profits in Sugar, I am stopped out in Soy and looking at a possible entry in Gold.

All trades posted here are discussed in our Daily Update Subscription Service and posted on our private Twitter feed. Our track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.

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Soy – Re-entering the Trade

9-2 – Back from my holiday break and the retest appears to have completed at 828 and we are getting set up for a rally into the 979 area. A conversion of monthly pivot at 862 confirms the rally. I am currently long 1/2 size from 831 with a stop below 826.

9-9 – Still long and waiting for a three up to take off first 1/3 and set stop to even. Likely we see monthly pivot this week. Normally I would wait for a 50% back of the previous swing but in this case respecting the headline minefield in soy so exiting first 1/3 earlier.

9-16 – I was stopped out on ZS last week on the move lower. I am waiting on a clear sign of a reversal pattern before re-entry, we have risk to $800 here so waiting on a confirmation on this turn first.

 

Sugar – Managing the Trade

 

7-1 – Triangle is at support as of Friday. A decision on sugar is about to occur, break lower and chances are we retest the low. My lean here is higher into the 20th of July. Monday we need to see the upper trend line convert which is close to the monthly pivot at 12.46.

7-8- Sugar triangle support broke down and we have retested the low. Likely we see a turn here or marginally lower at $11.00. Looking for a turn this week and a rally into the 8-9 window and 12.50-13.00 next.

7-15 – We have seen $11.00 area as discussed, the 100% fib is at $10.74. Likely the turn should happen in this zone. Watch this week for a reversal pattern. The low has been retested and we have a double bottom.

7-22 – Small double bottom on Sugar, I like the impulse higher from here and we are in a low window. The trend line should be tested next, any break above and we see continuation higher.

7-29 – The lower low and positive D on RSI is a nice setup for a long. The trend line above is key, I am expecting a rally this week and a test of 11.68. Convert and the turn is confirmed and we see the rally.

9-2 – The 11.68 level did not convert and we have seen a lower low at the monthly S1. At this point we have a candidate low that may be in. Looking for the first three up into 10.89 then the retest. If the retest holds 10.30 then likely the turn is in. If we convert 10:30 then we open 9.68 as a potential lower low. My plan is to exit 2/3s of my current position early this week and wait on the retest to add size.

9-9 – Flag is now complete and I have already exited 2/3 of this position, looking for a retest and support at 10.30-10.40. If support becomes manifest I plan to add size at this level, if not we see a new low.

9-16 – Waiting on the retest to complete, exited a little early in this trade, waiting to reload lower. Expecting the trend line to break and the monthly pivot to be tested.

Natural Gas – Entering the Trade

7-15 – No significant retest yet, price is slowly working itself lower. Resistance at 2.85, still expecting lower prices into 2.40-50. Retest expected this week and lower prices.

7-22 – The retest is in progress in NG, likely this will finish quickly and we see lower prices directly. $2.78 likely the area of resistance to test before we see lower prices. I am still expecting 2.40-50 by mid August.

7-29 – The retest looks complete to me and 2.80 is currently resistance. This week we need to see acceleration to the downside and a conversion of the low. If seen we open 2.50-40 next.

9-2 – The retest completed higher than expected and may be turning over here. Likely a flat has formed here and 2.93 is resistance and am expecting 2.76 next. This week we need to convert back below 2.90 to see continuation lower. I am still holding a short trailer with my stop at even.

9-9 – We have hit first target at 2.76 and now we should see a small retest. 2.82 or 2.86 resistance and lower prices expected into 2.62 likely. Stop still at even and still holding 1/3 in size. Will add size on retest when resistance is seen.

9-16 – So far so good on the decline, we have at least a week left. Only a trailer left on the position and still holding for now. Looking for an exit likely next week. Minimum target $2.70.

Coffee – Entering the Trade

 

7-15 – Coffee is three down at 109 and this is an area for a possible rally or Coffee will make a lower low this week. My timing window is this week and am looking for a spot to start a new position. I have been very patient watching this drop with the Coffee harvest in full swing, a setup should come this week.

7-22 – Given there is no divergence in Coffee, the likely path is still lower. This is a major turn and no divergence means that we see a retest into 7-30 and then a lower low to set up positive D on RSI. I like the timing for a turn, now waiting on a better setup, the lower low is key.

7-29 -Coffee is at the end of a seasonal pattern as the harvest is nearing completion. We have no divergence on the low and a lower low here would be preferred. We can turn right here and go higher but my lean for now is for the better setup and lower prices into 105 or so.

9-2 – Coffee is in the turning process for a seasonal low. I am expecting a rally into 108 then the retest of the low. There is risk here to $98. I am currently carrying just a trailer size position and waiting for the rally into 108.

9-9 – Coffee is still turning and I am still holding 1/3 of a position. Likely a lower low is coming and I plan to add size at that time. Holding the 1/3 in case of an early turn. Target expected is $97.

9-18 – Coffee is still working on a lower low. I current have no position and am looking to get long at around $97. Lower low sets up positive D on RSI. Waiting patiently.

Lean Hogs – Entering the Trade

 

7-15 – Last week I called for a lower low at the monthly s1 and we are now there No change from last week’s expectations. The turn date is later this week, and I am still expecting the rally into the $80s.

7-22 – Lean Hogs is close to a reversal, I am looking a small move lower to complete the RSI divergence followed by a reversal pattern. This is likely going to turn this week. I like the next rally through October.

7-29 – Last week I expected a turn,and this week we are putting in a double bottom which is a reversal pattern. Commercials are long and this week we should see the initial impulse off the bottom. I still like the high window in October.

9-2 – A support test is in progress now. The low may be in and we are now three down to the 100% fib. Friday showed us a 5% rally off the low. If we see the low hold from Thursday and see continuation higher, the turn in Lean Hogs in confirmed. Higher prices expected into the October window.

9-9 – Lean Hogs may have found support and likely we see a conversion of the red line – the monthly R1 and if seen the turn is confirmed. Looking for a rally into next window in mid October. I have no position at this time.

9-16 – Lean hogs now confirmed to the upside into the cycle date in October, the next retest is a chance to reload. Price is 50% back the previous swing to you should be out at least 1/3 of your trade and stop even at this point.

Gold – Entering the Trade

 

7-22 – We have seen the 200% fib at 1210. This is a candidate low and is in our low window at 7-20. The next candidate low window is 7-28 which can be a lower low. We are in a timing window and a price area for a turn in Gold. A retest of support at 20-22 that finds support should push Gold higher into the trend line at 31-33. Convert that area and we have a turn and should see the next high window on 8-3.

7-29 – Rolling to the Dec contract, the setup has not changed. Is the 7-20 window the low? It is still unconfirmed until we convert the trend line. Convert 40s and we have a turn. Fail to convert early this week and we open a full retest of the lows.

9-2 – We failed to convert the trend line at 40s and have seen continuation lower in Gold into the monthly S1 area. We have a potential candidate low and I am expecting a retest of the low. 1188 is the support area and if this breaks we open 1162. Once support is demonstrated, and we convert monthly pivot, we will have a confirmed turn in Gold and am expecting a rally into November.

9-9 – Looking for the retest this week, and likely support at 1188-85 as discussed. If seen I will be entering long, if not I will be waiting for 1162 as discussed. Looking for a rally in Gold into November based on the USD forecast which is calling for lower prices.

9-16 – Waiting for the retest and now we are in it. 1188-85 is the area for the retest – find support and I am long, break down and I enter on the lower low at 1162. This week should make the decision on Gold and the USD.

 

 

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.


Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

*** There is a substantial risk of loss of capital when trading and/or investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

 

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Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.

 

About the Author

Stan Nabozny
Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. A registered Commodity Trading Advisor, his specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies. Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics . Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

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