The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of November 25th

The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of November 25th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies. Our current performance shows a 337% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.

Back from a holiday week and looking to get busy with Oil, Coffee, Sugar and Natural Gas for possible entries. Lots of good setups this week. All trades posted here are discussed on our Daily Update Subscription Service and posted on our private Twitter feed. Our track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.

The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: Click Here for a FREE Trial

 

Soy – Re-entering the Trade

9-2 – Back from my holiday break and the retest appears to have completed at 828 and we are getting set up for a rally into the 979 area. A conversion of monthly pivot at 862 confirms the rally. I am currently long 1/2 size from 831 with a stop below 826.

9-9 – Still long and waiting for a three up to take off first 1/3 and set stop to even. Likely we see monthly pivot this week. Normally, I would wait for a 50% back of the previous swing, but in this case, respecting the headline minefield in soy so exiting first 1/3 earlier.

9-16 – I was stopped out on ZS last week on the move lower. I am waiting on a clear sign of a reversal pattern before re-entry. We have risk to $800 here so waiting on a confirmation on this turn first.

9-23 – Confirmation of the turn expected this week as we have broken above the trend line. Likely we see 828 hold as support and I am looking to enter for a run higher into the 950s by the end of October. There is still risk to $800.

9-30 – Still waiting on 828 and likely we will see it this week. I will be looking for a reversal pattern in that area. If we break through and convert 828, likely we open a new low to 800. I am still expected 950-970 by the end of October.

10-7 – No change since last week, waiting on the 50% back test. Still expecting 828 to 835 and if the setup is right, I like it long into 950 or so. Should see the retrace this week.

10-14 – No change again. We have the beginnings of a three wave sequence lower. Looking for 839 and still possibly 828. Looking for a reversal pattern to enter and expecting higher prices into 950 or so by November.

10-21 – Still waiting on the retest on Soy, not yet at 839. I plan to wait for a better setup long as I am still expecting higher prices into November. We are at trend line support here, but likely we will break the trend line on this retest.

10-28 – Near a turn here, needs a 5th wave lower, 839 turn area. Looking for a long into the next cycle window.

11-4 – Turned as expected, and now a re-test of Monthly Pivot. The next legg up will hang around Monthly Pivot for a while before heading higher, putting in a right shoulder.

11-11 – As mentioned, we are hanging around the monthly pivot last week. So far it has tested as support. Still expecting higher prices as long as monthly pivot holds as support. Friday’s price action be broke above the bull flag, more upside expected.

11-18 – Soy appears to be in a triangle, it appears to be consolidating for a move higher. Likely through the holiday week it will finish this consolidation. Monthly pivot here must hold or we risk a retest of the red trend line. There is no quality setup here to trade.

11-25 – Soy is in a triangle and now completing it. There is risk to the downside to as low as the red trend line. Lean for the triangle break is higher into 950 or so. Chances are we see wave E finish early this week.  Trading the triangle breakout is easy, start a small position with a stop below the triangle and plan to add after the breakout.

Sugar – Managing the Trade

 

9-2 – The 11.68 level did not convert and we have seen a lower low at the monthly S1. At this point we have a candidate low that may be in. Looking for the first three up into 10.89 then the retest. If the retest holds 10.30 then likely the turn is in. If we convert 10:30 then we open 9.68 as a potential lower low. My plan is to exit 2/3s of my current position early this week and wait on the retest to add size.

9-9 – Flag is now complete and I have already exited 2/3 of this position, looking for a retest and support at 10.30-10.40. If support becomes manifest I plan to add size at this level, if not we see a new low.

9-16 – Waiting on the retest to complete, exited the last 1/3 a little early in this trade, waiting to reload lower. Expecting the trend line to break and the monthly pivot to be tested.

9-23 – Still waiting as the three back is not quite done. Expecting a lower low which gets me long again in the 10.20 area. I am currently flat Sugar.

9-30 – Worth waiting on the low, likely we are either turning here or we see a minor new low. Either way, I plan to re-enter this week long. Waiting on the setup.

10-7 – Wave 5 has played out, reversal likely and a retrace into 10-15 cycle. Support 50 back is a clear buy for the next long cycle into November and 13.50ish.

10-14 – We have an A – B and now expecting a 5 wave decline into the 12.40 area next. Reversal pattern and I am long again on Sugar.

10-21 – Sugar has topped here, looking for the retest into 10/28 for a possible long into the next window higher 11/24. Retrace target is 12.82.

10-28 – Sugar retracement in progress, turned as expected, three back can be shallow to 13.56 and if converted can see 12.50. Next rally expected into 11/24..

11-4 – First target achieved, and we have made the 200% fib, looking for a reversal pattern here and a hold of the current low. 12.50 is still possible here. Expecting a decision early this week. Next high window 11-24 and 14.50.

11-11 – Sugar is below the monthly pivot and heading for the 100% fib at 12.38. Support seen here expecting a turn and a march higher into the end of November. Bigger picture I have higher highs through August of 2019.

11-18 – Sugar may be turning here and may not make the 12.38 target as stated last week. The trend line is broken and on a conversion of the monthly pivot (the blue line) we likely see continuation to the upside. Next target is 14.50.

11-24 – Sugar in the area for a turn. Made the full target to 12.38 and needs to convert the trend line to open the upside. The lean is higher and any conversion of the Monthly pivot (the blue line) and we see the next upside move.

 

Natural Gas – Entering the Trade

 

9-2 – The retest completed higher than expected and may be turning over here. Likely a flat has formed here and 2.93 is resistance and am expecting 2.76 next. This week we need to convert back below 2.90 to see continuation lower. I am still holding a short trailer with my stop at even.

9-9 – We have hit first target at 2.76 and now we should see a small retest. 2.82 or 2.86 resistance and lower prices expected into 2.62 likely. Stop still at even and still holding 1/3 in size. Will add size on retest when resistance is seen.

9-16 – So far so good on the decline, we have at least a week left. Only a trailer left on the position and still holding for now. Looking for an exit likely next week. Minimum target $2.70.

9-23 – A busy week for NG. I enter NG short earlier in the week, adding to my existing 1/3 short position. Just before the EIA news announcement, I decided to take a small profit on my new position and placed my stop at even. Price broke higher into a flat and I have been stopped out of my add and my trailer of my original position. Always a good practice to go even stop before EIA. I have re-entered short again at 2.978 and am expecting lower prices into at least monthly pivot.

9-30 – Stopped out of NG at 3.020 and standing aside. I am re-evaluating the trend here and the October contract is usually a seasonal low. I am now looking for a run higher into 3.30 or so. Waiting on a retest here into 2.90 – 82, a three back if seen should set up for a long. Looking for this setup this week.

10-7 – Nice setup for a short on NG and looking to get long after this retracement finishes. The trend is clearly higher into November and I am a buyer of support. Two levels to watch 3.10 and 3.02. Waiting on positive D setup and the three back to finish.

10-14 – Short playing out nicely, broken trend line and expecting 3.055 as support this week. Likely the next legg up starts later this week into 3.45 next.

10-21 – Natural Gas is still in a retracement into 3.125 and I am waiting on the next long. By 11/17, I am expecting 3.45-3.50ish. We could be forming a triangle here so Monday see the top of the range, this would be wave D.

10-28 – Retracement may be finished. 3.12 retracement target was achieved. Now looking for a small right shoulder and higher into 3.45 target in the mid/late November time frame.

11-4 – Break out to the upside in process, expecting 3.50 next and then a strong reversal lower. Weekly pivot should hold as support.

11-11 – Through our target at 3.65 and an overthrow of the channel. Retest in the next 4-5 trading days into 3.50 and higher expected into 3.90. Natural gas prices being driven by El Nino weather pattern expecting colder than usual winter. Stocks are not bullish, so this will end badly when the time comes. For now, lean long.

11-18 – A volatile week as a hedge fund went under and capitulated pushing NG into the $5 area. While this volatility is not sustainable with implied vol over 100%, likely the high will be re-tested in December. Looking for a pullback in three waves into the 2nd std dev BB in the 3.60-3.80 area next. Day trade only with small size and mind your risk.

11-25 – A triangle may be forming and equally there is a chance that this can be a flat. My lean is lower to 3.85 so vol can relax a little then the next legg up for December. Any break and conversion of 4.60 and we open 5.20-40 directly. The lean lower needs to plan out with a break of the triangle support trend line on Monday

 

 

Coffee – Entering the Trade

 

9-2 – Coffee is in the turning process for a seasonal low. I am expecting a rally into 108 then the retest of the low. There is risk here to $98. I am currently carrying just a trailer size position and waiting for the rally into 108.

9-9 – Coffee is still turning and I am still holding 1/3 of a position. Likely a lower low is coming and I plan to add size at that time. Holding the 1/3 in case of an early turn. Target expected is $97.

9-18 – Coffee is still working on a lower low. Took profits this week on the last 1/3 and I currently have no position. I am looking to get long at around $97. Lower low sets up positive D on RSI. Waiting patiently.

9-23 – I got long coffee this week at 95.57 and am off 2/3 of the trade. Originally looking for 101, we may see as high as 105s. Waiting on my last 1/3 with stop even and looking to add size on a pullback into 98. A break of the declining resistance trend line is a positive sign, a retest that holds the trend line as support confirm the turn. Also news of farmers in Brazil lobbying the government about their inability to farm with prices at these levels. Watch the news for more. A government tailwind here would be welcomed!!

9-30 – I legged out of 2/3 of the trade and now am holding a trailer. We are at first target at 103.50 which is the 100% fib for the three up. Likely we see a retest lower into monthly pivot and then higher. If we fail at monthly pivot and penetrate $99, we open $92 next and a lower low. Holding 1/3 in case we see higher into 105s, and plan to add size on the back test.

10-7 – I closed out my trailer in the 110s which is the end of the third wave. Happy with the profits and a 116% return on margin. A nice trade. I am looking to reload on the pullback which can get as low as 103. First, we finish the move higher into 111s then the pullback. I am a buyer when seen.

10-14 – Looking for the next purchase on Coffee, looking lower into 105-106. 5th wave finished, we are looking for an expanded flat lower into that area. I’m a buyer when seen.

10-21 – The Coffee freight train has topped and a retest is expected this week into one of two targets – 114s or 110s. Implied vol is high here so still expecting big moves. Looking to enter long on the next reversal pattern lower.

10-28 – Three back expected into 114-115 and then another legg higher into 135 by 12-12. Coffee is very volatile her so wait for a confirmed turn for the next long. We can see 109s as an alternate.

11-4 – Coffee made out target and now is finding resistance at the declining resistance trend line. 50/50 chance here that we reverse hard and make 109s OR we convert the trend line and head straight to 135s. My lean is lower to complete a three down into 109s this week then higher to 135s.

11-11 – No change in forecast, a triangle is forming here, resolution is lower to 109s. Bigger picture the lean is long and I am still expecting 135s. The support test needs to complete first so waiting for the long setup here.

11-18 – Still waiting on the 109s, no change in forecast here. Still looking for a long into 135s. A quality setup is required on Coffee to get me interested. Likely entry is next week.

11-25 – The move lower playing out as expected. Next stop is 109s and positive D for a long setup. Should see it this week. Waiting for a reversal pattern to enter.

Lean Hogs – Entering the Trade

 

9-2 – A support test is in progress now. The low may be in and we are now three down to the 100% fib. Friday showed us a 5% rally off the low. If we see the low hold from Thursday and see continuation higher, the turn in Lean Hogs in confirmed. Higher prices expected into the October window.

9-9 – Lean Hogs may have found support and likely we see a conversion of the red line – the monthly R1 and if seen the turn is confirmed. Looking for a rally into next window in mid October. I have no position at this time.

9-16 – Lean hogs now confirmed to the upside into the cycle date in October, the next retest is a chance to reload. Price is 50% back the previous swing to you should be out at least 1/3 of your trade and stop even at this point.

9-23 – Lean Hogs near target and is early timing wise. Time and price usually come together in my work so this early is a sign that my price target is low. We may see $62 and the trend line by the cycle date.

9-30 – Likely we see the move higher into $62 and negative D on RSI to set up the retest this week. 50% back expected then higher into the next cycle date into $75.

10-7 – We have hit target which is the 100% fib and we still have time remaining on this cycle. Leave on a trailer here as we may see a higher high this week. Looking for a pullback 50% back and then next leg up into 75s on Hogs. I will be a buyer on the retracement.

10-14 – Reversal here is in progress now and expecting 52.275 as support. The monthly S1 likely to be the right shoulder of an IHS. Expecting a rally from there. For now I am standing aside waiting on the next entry long.

10-21 – Reversal is close to target, expecting lower lows to $50 for support and a right shoulder. Will be watching for a reversal pattern this week for a long into February.

10-28 – Lean Hogs has broken the resistance trend line and I am expecting the next legg higher after we re-test the broken trend line. Looking for the next high into February.

11-4 – The advance is above the flag resistance trend line and I am expecting another advance this week into the blue trend line from June. Lean is higher into February and $75.

11-11 – No advance last week, and still leaning long here. Trend line support is expected and a break and conversion of monthly pivot is bullish here. Commercials are short which gives me pause here on the next long. I am waiting on the reversal pattern here before entering 1/2 size to start.

11-18 – Nice advance here on Hogs, likely will see the trend line next and a retrace then the final advance into the February time frame into the 75 area.

11-25 – Upside move complete for now, needs a wave 4 and 5 to complete this legg then a larger retracement. For now take profits and keep your size small, add lower after the wave 5 completes.

 

 

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. See the videos below for more information.


Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

*** There is a substantial risk of loss of capital when trading and/or investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

 

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Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.

 

About the Author

Stan Nabozny
Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. A registered Commodity Trading Advisor, his specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies. Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics . Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

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