SPX closed ten handles or so over the 5dma yesterday, so SPX is back on the Three Day Rule. If SPX should close back below the 5dma today or Monday then we should expect a retest of the last low at 2583.23 in the near future. At the moment the 5dma is at 2638 and […]
read more »I had food poisoning for half of last week, so I didn’t manage to get a post out or remind everyone that Stan and I were doing our monthly public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you missed that, the recording is posted here. In the webinar yesterday, we were looking at the likely triangle on ES/SPX […]
read more »At the open this morning, there was a key common thread on SPX, NDX and RUT in that all three were either close (SPX & NDX), or at (RUT) their key resistance trendlines from the all time highs. As I’ve been writing, the falling channel resistance on SPX and falling wedge resistance on NDX have […]
read more »The bull scenario initially looked good after my post last week, with clear breaks back over the daily middle band and 5dma on Friday. That triggered the 5dma Three Day Rule, which, on a daily close back below the 5dma on Monday or Tuesday, would look for a retest of the most recent low. SPX […]
read more »On my last post I was talking about the expected significant backtest on SPX, and we have now seen that retracement which has reached the 61.8% fib retrace area. At this point I’m expecting the main rally into Xmas to start in the next couple of days and that may well be starting here. However […]
read more »Last week I was talking about a backtest into the 5dma / 50 hour MA support area and we saw that, and another leg up over the daily middle band and the 50% retracement level that brings SPX up into resistance at the 61.8% retracement level at 2812 and the September rally high at 2816.94. […]
read more »The close on SPX yesterday was a clear close back over the 5dma, and as it has been a decline of more than 2% since the last break down, that puts SPX back on the Three Day Rule. That means that if SPX should deliver a clear close (4/5+ handles) back below the 5dma, currently […]
read more »SPX retested the retracement low this morning, so the Three Day Rule target has been reached. This is a return to form after the first fail on this stat since the start of 2007 in April/May 2018. Still the strongest stat I follow. So what now? From a cycles perspective there is a cycle high […]
read more »It has been a while since we have seen a Three Day Rule signal fix, in part because the rule requires an initial 2% decline, and those have been pretty rare over the last couple of years, but the Three Day Rule triggers when there has been a minimum 2% decline on SPX and then […]
read more »I was saying after the SPX support trendline touch a few days ago that having a strong three-touch support trendline cuts both ways, in that it is strong support while it holds, but can get ugly fast when it breaks. The strength of this push down after the support trendline broke on Wednesday morning was […]
read more »