Friday Update – SPX, RUT, USD and Oil

Today’s update focuses on SPX, RUT, USD and Oil. I covered in today’s video the first except on using time based analysis in trading. Time based analysis is the most undervalued and misunderstood aspect of TA in my opinion and we will be covering more of this in the future.

SPX – Be aware that I will be making posts intraday on these updates in the comments section. On the Wednesday Update, we called 65-70 as resistance and the formation of a triangle on ES. Both played out beautifully. More easily seen on ES, we have a clear ABCDE which completed yesterday and are now seeing a trust out of the triangle. Bulls are in must perform mode. Watch for resistance at ES 68’s – a fail there means we may see another test of the bottom of the range then 34’s next. I am expecting 68’s to be broken and see higher prices back to test the monthly pivot.

RUT – Setting up nicely for a flat – A-B-12345 which is a reversal structure to 1263 and the monthly pivot.

CL – Finishing a flat with the possibility of a marginal new high before we see lower prices and 49’s for a significant turn. Watch the Pit open thi morning for clues.

DX – Testing a key pivot this morning and we may not have finished wave C of the triangle – so higher prices in store if support at the pivot holds. If we break support, look to complete wave D at 94.20’s.

A question was asked about the cloudiness of the video – they are all HD quality and you must make sure in the bottom right corner of the viewer that the HD button in on. It also takes Vimeo a few minutes to covert the video to HD after I post it.


Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and

10th Jul 2015

25 thoughts on “Friday Update – SPX, RUT, USD and Oil”

  1. Very interesting , Love the time box: Question I am trying to redraw the HR chart on StockCharts and the candles are different, Can you think of any reason that they would not be the same? Maybe you are all season ? TIA , great stuff

    1. careful john that the time bars are the same distance – some chart packages the bars to the right of current time not the same – not familiar with stock charts software

  2. aslan murad ekmekci

    Very much thanks for video updates. Which region would SPX target if it fails at 2,083/5 resistance area? 2,050ish back test?

    1. YW Aslan – A quick answer to your question – I don’t like to guess at retracements. My skill and background is around forecasting impulsive moves, their duration and timing. As such, I concern myself with only that – a backtest is just that – a backtest of support. Not something I trade as I concern myself as a swing trader to capturing the trend short and medium term. If you are day trading the emini, go for it in trading both directions. Day trading is different in that way. Once we see 83’s – if I have a perspective – I’ll offer it, but routinely the question you ask is difficult to answer with a 70% win rate. Lets see what happens next week as we will have more information – after the Sunday open which will be interesting.

  3. Well it didn’t take long for the SPX to blow thru 2068 to ~2076 this morning. So it looks like some back-testing and then higher, into next week I think is forecast. I’m really interested in the “turn” you mentioned. When (next week?) and to what possible lower levels. The news is mentioning Greece and China as catalysts this am. On Sunday the EU should now probably approve a new Greek bailout and next week 2Q earnings really begin. Should be an interesting time period.

    Thanks much for the videos Stan. They are very informative and helpful as well as spot on so far! I’ll be watching for any intra-day updates. 🙂

    1. Thanks Stan. So far things playing out the way you’ve predicted in your vids this week. I know you mentioned you let price tell you where the market is going. But, how high do you think the SPX can go before the “turn” you mentioned. (I think you’re suggesting a new downtrend?) New highs maybe? It could be really dangerous to short this market too early.

  4. Thanks for the vids this week Stan. Wild week. After viewing the vid again I think the “turn” mentioned may be from a failed rally where you expect a “low” next week and then a turn from the current patterns, to a new uptrend/pattern. You mentioned a vid this weekend so I’ll watch to see for more info there. Have a great weekend all! 🙂

    1. Failed rally = a really good definition of a “B” wave. Otherwise known as a suckers bet. We will know when we are there as I am sure others will be calling for new highs – thanks for the posts Mike, cya next week. 🙂

    1. Now the question is if SPX will keep moving up breaking 2,083/85 at first test or a back test scenario is in play. If the second scenario is in play what could be the target of back test move down? After Friday’ s action up, I don’ t think SPX would drop hard..

  5. I simply couldn’t go away your web site before suggesting that I really loved the usual information an individual provide
    in your visitors? Is going to be back often in order to investigate cross-check new posts

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *