[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I didn't really have time to fall much in love with the possible bull flag channel on SPX yesterday as it broke hard and SPX went directly to the main support level I was expecting to see tested later after a bounce. That level is rising support from the 2022 low in October which I...
read moreTag: IWM
Love And Marriage
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I always try and keep an open mind, as too strong a directional view on any trading instrument can result in tunnel vision, where the analyst sees mainly or only the evidence that supports that view. That is an obstacle to good analysis, and for an analyst who trades, can get very expensive. In trading...
read moreTag: IWM
A Modest Proposal
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On Thursday night last week I posted a public model trade on my twitter taking a short on ES at 4561.75 looking for the 4350 area. That trade was in thirds, I posted all entries and exits in real time on twitter, and I took the last two thirds at 4399 yesterday for an average...
read moreTag: IWM
A Festival of Flags
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]SPX has seen a decent retracement from the highs, the reversion to the mean target at the 45dma has been hit, and a lot of decent looking bull flags have been forming on US indices. SPX may now be close to a retracement low, and a daily RSI 5 buy signal fixed a couple of...
read moreTag: IWM
Hard Knocks
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Over the last few days SPX has been retracing and is approaching the first big support level. That is the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 4312, with the low yesterday at 4328. That is a target that may be reached today. SPX daily BBs chart:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="147307" img_size="large" alignment="center" onclick="img_link_large"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On the bigger picture, a...
read moreTag: IWM
Looking For A Short Term High
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The high last Friday was only three handles below the close on the daily 3sd upper band, which is a rare event, so I did what I like to do with rare events, I looked back and crunched some numbers looking at previous examples. These are the stats I posted on Monday morning. There are...
read moreTag: IWM
No Improbability Drive
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was saying on Wednesday that the decent looking bullish setup was still there, but in the light of the Fed Chairman's candid comments about future policy over the last few days a significant drive higher was looking improbable. I was looking for a test of weekly pivot at 4007 and then a fail there...
read moreTag: IWM
The Dove That Didn’t Coo
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was writing about the very attractive looking bull flag setups on SPX, NDX and IWM that are setting up possible tests of the February highs. We saw the retracement that I was expecting then but SPX has broken back below the weekly pivot at 4007 on the press conference yesterday by the Fed Chairman....
read moreTag: IWM
A Cluster Of Flags
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Support has been tested hard over the last couple of weeks on SPX, and the week before last there was a potentially interesting break below the 50 week moving average, currently at 4002, and then a test of the weekly middle band, now at 3960. Had SPX managed to close last week again below the...
read moreTag: IWM
Rallying From Major Support
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]We saw the breakdown on SPX that I was warning about on my last post, and so far SPX is finding support in the 4000 area, which is the obvious support level as there is an intersection of decent support levels here. There are hourly buy signals fixed overnight on all of the six equity...
read more