Friday Update – SPX, RUT, GC, Oil and USD

The Friday Update is below and it covers SPX, RUT, ES, Oil, USD, and Gold. Am on holiday this week but back on Sunday for Chart Chat. Updates three days a week next week as usual.

We did get the V day we expected but did not see our target area in the 1834-22 area. Bear market rally and end of flat is near. Tomorrow key day for the bulls, they must maintain 1950 as support or we open the 1834-22 area for a new low. Turn in silver and oil has happened and looking for downside in DX tomorrow.

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Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and

27th Aug 2015

11 thoughts on “Friday Update – SPX, RUT, GC, Oil and USD”

  1. Thanks for the video Stan. You mentioned you think we are in a bear market and this is a bear mkt. rally. “IF” SPX 1950 holds as support and we rally (I assume a significant one) does that change your view that we are in a bear? Meaning, it could be (an ending) Primary IV going to a Primary V?

    Lastly, and, “maybe too early to call”. If SPX is in a bear market, do you have (potential) targets for the bottom (also a time-frame)? Enjoy the end of your vacation. BTW, next time don’t plan a vacation during such a volatile market. 😉

    1. Good questions Mike which I am also contemplating myself. When I say bear market rally, just describing the type of bounce we had. I am still asking the question which correction this is – from 2011 or 2009. I don’t have an answer yet. Three scenarios here bigger picture – P4 is over and we go to new highs OR P4 has one more dip and we go to new highs OR we are in wave B of a larger correction to 1400ish which is the 2009 correction. By the close Monday we should have more clues. Will discuss more this weekend. 🙂

      1. Thanks Stan. With today’s action looks like maybe P4 with one more dip to SPX ~1921 (even 1867 re-test?) then new highs in P5. Still looking for a rally to 2020’s or 2030’s along the way. Not ready for a new bear…yet (maybe 2016).

  2. Thanks Stan, great analysis! You mentioned in Wed’s video that the Monday gap would be a done deal, since institutions must reduce their position if the week closes below the year open (or something to that effect) – can you give me a link to this rule (and perhaps others)? I wasn’t aware.

    1. Hi Stan,
      Thanks for posting this. Hope you’ve had a good break.
      Will be looking forward to that new market timing signal based on your vacation schedule.


    2. No link that I know of – money managers pay attention to S&P’s and where it is in relationship to the year open. A close below the open gets them to rethink their allocations, spreads, etc. But that Friday close was a shot across the bow, just made sense there would be a reaction to it.

  3. Truly amazing calls from last week and last update. you have a rare gift to take something so complex and make it very easy to understand. appreciate you doing this on vacation. i keep current notes taped to the wall next to monitor and my charts marked with alerts. Funny you said ONLY accurate read on patterns 67-72% of the time. if 51% is good, then i will take every trade with those odds and and bank my 70% ty very much. i believe that any futures trader would be very pleased with his monthly statement with a 70% win record. i know you often do better than 70% but like Princeton Trader Mike, you both are too humble to say. TY for trading with us. your help and posts in the room have been money in the bank

  4. Stan, good answer to Mikes question. I was waiting to see how you would handle that one. if you had the answer today, that crystal ball would be priceless. good scenarios though.

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