The Weekly Call provides perspective on high quality setups and trading strategies for the coming week. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This week we manage our trade in Cocoa and are looking for entries in Coffee, Sugar and Silver.
Our goal in this blog is to generate a 200% return in less than a year by swing trading futures that are not part of our regular service. Our track record is now posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.
Follow along during the week on twitter by following HERE.
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Coffee – Hunting the Long
4-2 – We entered Coffee long last week at $138 on the 50% back test and have held our stop below 137.30. Monday morning we are out 1/3 at $141 roughly 50% of the previous swing and stop is now at even. Expecting Coffee to climb into the 150-152 area by April 21st or so. We are still watching the $135 area as this may develop into a bear flag early this week.
4-9 – With the move up last Friday we may have the beginnings of the next impulse higher. Longer term cycles are supporting a move higher in Coffee through July. We will be looking for an entry early this week if we see a break of the monthly pivot at 140.65.
4-16 – We are waiting patiently for the next setup on Coffee, we are in the channel and waiting for a move lower to key fibs at $137 and $135. The RSI price cycle says lower price action is likely this week. We will tweet out the entry if seen this week.
4-23 – Our patience has paid off as we are now looking at a much better entry for Coffee. It is worth waiting for an extreme and a good setup before putting out risk. At this point we will wait for either a trendline touch or a reversal pattern in the $130 area. Bulls need to cross the potential floor ceiling market with the inflection box. There is further risk to the downside if resistance is seen here. Follow along during the week on twitter by following HERE.
4-30 – As expected, we have a turn in the $130 area and a potential rally into 5-8 as mentioned. The inflection box on 5-8 will make the decision if the low is in. Timing cycles call for another low in the 6-10 time frame. We will wait for a reversal pattern as we are expecting a major rally in Coffee that is likely to last well into 2018.
Sugar – Looking to Re-enter Long
4-2 – Sugar has reversed and we have been stopped out. We have 2 small profits so far but are still looking for a larger swing higher. We will be looking for the next reversal pattern and tweeting out our next entry. We are watching for a break of the declining resistance trendline.
4-9 – The timing cycles say a turn this week in Sugar. We are still waiting for a reversal pattern and will watch for an entry this week. $15.59 and a reversal pattern gets us long Sugar, we are looking for at least a three month move higher. Watch the twitter feed for our entry this week.
4-16 – Nothing has changed from last week, we are still waiting for a reversal pattern and will watch for an entry this week. $15.59 still the area to watch. We will tweet out an entry this week if we get the setup.
4-23 – We have a potential reversal pattern here and are waiting to convert weekly pivot at 16.62. If seen this can begin the next legg higher in Sugar. We like sugar long here as timing cycles are pointing higher into the beginning of June and we are exiting the low timing window.
4-30 – The setup is developing as we have a turn and a rally through channel resistance. The rally should continue this week through 5-4 and we are expecting a retest and an entry. The retest will be either a higher low or a double bottom. We expect the entry sometime next week. Commercials are long Sugar and we expect a significant bullish move soon.
Cocoa – Adding to our position.
We were hunting an 18 month cycle low in Cocoa – this is a very volatile commodity and we suggest trading this only if you are experienced in commodities and risk management. There is a likelihood that this low cycle can initiate a change in trend for this commodity.
4-2 – We have initiated a 1/2 size position at 2088 in Cocoa and are managing risk using size instead of using stops. The 18 month cycle has printed on Cocoa so we have some confidence the low in now in. We will add to our position if 2030 is seen.
4-9 – We have added a 1/2 size position at 1996 – the three down a=c. The 18 month cycle low has printed at the low and we are looking for an impulse higher this week into the high window at the end of April. We are expecting 2252 as a first target. Longer term we are looking for 2685 by year end.
4-16 – We have two 1/2 size positions long and expect a reversal this week in Cocoa. We may see a full retest of the low and a double bottom setup. Nice positive divergence setup on RSI and timing cycles are indicating we are in a short term low window with the larger degree 18 month cycle low now complete. On a break of divergence we will look to exit this trade, until then we are holding.
4-23 – We have a new low and a 5 down structure and are planning to add another 1/2 size position. This will be our last add to this trade. Conditions for this next add are to see resistance in the 1950ish are and then add on the next pullback. A break of the positive RSI divergence will cause us to exit this trade.
4-30 – We have added out last 1/2 size position at 1832 and have a potential reversal pattern in Cocoa. We are waiting for a confirmation and a conversion of monthly pivot at 1909 and the next high window on 6-15. We will be taking our first profit at the 50 back of the previous swing at 1962 and placing a stop at even.
Silver – Planning the Entry
Silver appears to have made a 40 week timing cycle low on 12/20/2016. We captured a long in metals in Gold on the first impulse up and exited on 2/8/2017 with the last 1/3 of the trade capturing 94 handles. We do not believe in counter trend swing trading unless it is a move of a month or more. We have been patiently waiting on this backtest in metals to enter long.
4-9 – The backtest we have been expecting has started last week. We do not have a good setup for an entry yet and are waiting for the three back and 1765 as a possible entry. We are going to wait for a clear reversal pattern on Silver before we commit capital. We are looking for an impulse into the high window around May 5th.
4-16 – We missed the entry last week in Silver as monthly pivot was support and we expected a deeper move and a better setup. The RSI price cycle is about to cross so we will wait until roughly 4-23 for a pullback and a decent setup for the impulse higher into May 5th. We have been picky about our entries, unless the setup is there, we will wait.
4-23 – The setup has arrived and we will look to enter long around the 25th this week. Watch for a cross of the RSI price cycle and a reversal pattern short term.Follow along during the week on twitter by following HERE.
4-30 – We have no reversal pattern yet in Silver and there is no cross in the RSI price cycle. So we wait until those two conditions are present before entry. We will wait on the reversal pattern and the RSI price cycle cross so the setup has higher odds of success.
Have a GREAT trading week!!!
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in Live Cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in Coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with Natural Gas, we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the Coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the Gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter Gold in a few weeks after a back test.