The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of March 8th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world.. My current performance shows a 414% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.

Fear can be worst that the reality of the current situation with the Corona Virus. A few weeks ago the markets would have been happy with the containment efforts by China. For now, China’s progress does not seem to have any impact. Add to the mix that the Saudi’s have decided to ignore OPEC and are flooding the market with Oil, which is a move to put as many companies out of business as possible. Watch the acquisition market to heat up  in the coming months. Oil is down over 20% in a flash crash this evening. Longer term, it will recover but for now, the futures market is overcompensating for the worst possible scenario. The over compensation will bring many good opportunities to look at this week: Oil Long in a 120 day time horizon, Bonds and Gold Short into the end of July, and the bear market type rallies of 100 handles on the Emini if you are day trading. For now, I will only trade setups that offer a hedge and limit my risk..  More information on my entries can be found below and on our Private Twitter Feed. My track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of my completed trade videos below.

The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE.

The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: Click Here for a FREE Trial

 

Coffee

 

 

12-1 – Coffee finishing the 5th wave now, marginal higher highs expected and a reversal into the middle of December or Wave X. This is a clear break of the weekly declining trend line resistance and further upside is expected after the pull back into 108-110.

12-8 – Coffee may have reversed and is in the retracement. Looking for a larger 50% back type move as we have negative D on RSI and the completion of a 5 wave sequence. Looking for a break of the support trend line and 110 area.

12-15 – Coffee reversal is in and lower prices as expected, likely wave A is done and watch for a small retrace and lower into the golden ratio zone as marked on the chart. We are still in an inverted market and likely more premium will come out of the front month.

12-22 – More premium has come out of the front month and the exhale in Coffee is almost complete. The wave 4 here of an expanded flat is almost complete, it needs a lower low to finish the pattern. I am looking for 124.50 as target.

12-29 – The low may be in and the exhale complete. Coffee needs to hold 127 on a pullback and should then rally into the new year to new highs. Looking for new highs into the next cycle window of 1-20.

1-5 – The low at 125 must hold or we open 118 next as a larger three down. Once we convert the weekly pivot we should see next rally into the next cycle high window. Coffee at a critical juncture here in the next few days.

1-12 – The 125 level broke and we have made target at 118 and are now reversing. Watch for a conversion of the declining resistance trend line and higher prices into the 20th of January. The next legg higher should begin this week.

1-19 – The reversal that was taking shape last week failed to deliver so this week still looking for an initial sign of life from the bulls. The key is converting the declining resistance trend line around 117.25. Once seen, we should see a larger rally into the end of this month.

1-26 – The reversal has still not happened, looking for a break above 118 or so to confirm a rally. If we see the S1 as resistance we can open a lower low into the March low window. Bulls need to show up this week and put in a reversal pattern. Positive D is in place.

2-2 – Low window is in the first week of March and given the performance of Coffee, we are about to reverse and possibly retest the low in March. We are at a critical support area at 100 which is the long term weekly trend line which we broke weeks ago. We are now retesting and this area must hold or we open 95. Monthly pivot is resistance until proven otherwise and watch for a retest of the low once seen.

2-9 – Basing here and a reversal is expected here. The Real has been near all time lows which has impacted Coffee. Look for a reversal this week and a test of 110 and then a retest of the low into March 9th. I am expecting a bullish run after the next low.

2-16 – Target made at 110s and can see a bit higher to set up negative D. Look for a low retest here in the next few weeks. Take profits for now and let’s wait on the next long setup.

2-23 – Coffee in the reversal and looking for three swings lower to retest the low into March 6th. So far so good, bears need to show up Monday.

3-1 – No change in forecast, still looking for the retest lower in order to build energy for the next advance.

3-8 – Coffee to test 105s this week and if support is found, we can start he next legg up. There is no reversal pattern here yet and the new crop looks to be big. There is a lot of supply right now and currency fluctuation are the main reason for the big changes in price. With the Saudi’s changing the value of oil, the Brazilian Real is likely to drop and so is Coffee. You don’t want to be long below 105.

Live Cattle

 

 

11-3 – There is a LARGE premium to the cash market here as futures are inverted. We so have feed lots trying to boost weights in this environment to boost production weights. Tighter beef supply and strong customer demand are driving the rally. We have done the small wave 4 and 5 and have divergence, so expecting this market to turn this week and break the support trend line. USDA outlook for Q1 is fairly neutral. Watch for month pivot as first target and a pull back into the middle of November.

11-10 – As mentioned last week, the retest has begun and we should pick up some steam lower into the monthly pivot. Looking for a low in the 11-16 window and then continuation higher into 122s.

11-17 – The retest is still in progress and looking for monthly pivot next. Wave C missing, likely we see the move this week. The trend is up and looking for 122s next.

11-24 – Cattle still coming off, big premiums and likely we see a wave c into 121-122 or so before the next major rally higher. No setup long here yet, be patient as we can still see monthly pivot next.

12-1 – On the wrong side of this market as we have broken the flag to the upside and likely will see 128-129 before reversing lower into 121-122. The same idea applies, wave X needs to break the support trend line and then higher higher into 130s expected.

12-8 – The reversal we have been looking for is finally happening. Trend line break and now retesting that trend line. Likely path is lower directly into the 120-122 area. This is a retracement wave so expecting to see 7 swings lower.

12-15 – Looks like a Wave B and likely pulled higher as a result of the tariff news, even though cattle is not a prime market for the Chinese. Likely we see a lower low from here into the 120-122 area next.

12-22 – Still waiting patiently for the pull back into the January low window on Live Cattle. We could still see a retest of the high before turning. Would like to see RSI relax into the 30 area to build support for the next big move higher.

12-29 – Just like Sugar, waiting on the buying opportunity. RSI needs a rest and a reset to allow for the next rally of Cattle into the June window and $140. We still need a decent pull back to buy in the 122 area.

1-5 – Cattle still has lower to go into the next cycle window of 1-15. Ideal price target is 120-122, price need tp make progress this week. Looking for the next rally after the low is made into 140s.

1-12 – No joy on Cattle, still a sideways market and still expecting a wave C lower. We could be building a triangle here which would correct is time instead of price. Lean for now is higher with retest expected into 123s.

1-19 – I had to shift the cycle date one cycle into the future as live cattle has been reluctant to decline. Sideways price action pushed cycles out in time so the new date is now 1-26. The retracement is week underway and still expecting a test in the 123s.

1-26 – A lower low and likely a turn will occur. Needs to see a small 5th wave lower to set up positive D. Once seen, the next step up is 135s. Wait for a reversal pattern and a positive D setup.

2-2 – Live Cattle is about to reverse after seeing a marginal lower low, which will set up positive D. Looking for a confirmation this week of a reversal and higher prices into March of roughly 134.

2-9 – So the lower low and positive D on RSI is in place, a reversal pattern is next, then the rally into 135. Let’s see if it plays out that way this week. Wait for the reversal pattern to buy.

2-16 – Nice break up as expected, looking for the reversal pattern and a setup to buy, watch for a retest of broken trend line resistance. Lean is higher into 135.

2-23 – Retest of the low and a possible double bottom setup coming. Watch for a reversal this week and a conversion of Monthly pivot.

3-1 – Low retest and lower has played out and Live Cattle being hit with demand concerns. A marginal lower low provides the next long setup. Once seen a conversion of monthly pivot is needed to see higher prices into the end of the month. Larger double bottom is bullish.

3-8 – A positive D setup is coming in Cattle and a lower low is likely. Demand is soft and we should see a reversal later this week.With the virus news, be cautious with an entry, wait for the setup and confirmation for the next Long.

 

Corn

 

 

11-3 – This week on Friday crop reports and WASDE at 12pm on Friday will create volatility. With the cold weather and freezing conditions in the mid-west and the late crop harvest as mentioned last week, yields will be impacted. Funds have been accumulating over the past few weeks and any trade deal with China will have a big impact here. Not expecting much price action until Friday but I am expecting a rally into the end of this month. Producers are focused now on harvesting Soy in the cold weather first, Corn is secondary.

11-10 – USDA reports created some volatility Friday but the net net is supply and yields are falling and consumption is out pacing production. So anything that increases ethanol demand (which is weak right now) like a China Tariff deal, will press this market much higher. Consumption outweighing production is not large so there is a bullish bias here, which needs more of a push with an ethanol deal with China. I am still leaning long here and looking for the flag break up this week.

11-17 – Corn moves lower this week and the funds are very short here and we are at the bottom of a flag. Support at 371 and 366. I have added a new Corn trade this week as I believe we are near a low, a ratio spread using Feb Calls the 2X4 ratio spread long 2 385s and short 4 410s – 69 DTE. This trade was put on for next to zero and should expire next to zero if we continue lower. No risk to the downside.

11-24 – Not much progress yet on our Corn trade, we have a few good signs. Positive D in place and an inverted head and shoulders, looking for a test of 387 or so and if it breaks up we have a trend change. Look for the rally to last into early January. Any deal signed by China and the US, even if it is a limited deal should generate a relief rally in Grains.

12-1 – Small pop last week and looking for the middle band to convert into support. Higher prices expected into the middle of December and a conversion of monthly pivot is a confirmation to the upside. Don’t forget about the Phase 1 China tariff deal that if signed could have an impact on agricultural commodities.

12-8 & 12-15 – China tariff phase 1 deal should stop fund managers from shorting this commodity and any whisper of the Chinese using US corn for ethanol and we should see a big rally. Expecting 390 next as a 5th wave then a retest of the low and then a rally into February. Keep in mind all the previous comments about yields, etc, we have a short supply this year which means if demand picks up we see a move higher.

12-22 & 12-29 – Corn has finished the first small 5 up and is in a retracement into 380 or so. We have near perfect conditions for a rally as an increase in demand from China will help the bulls. More important than China are the USDA numbers in January and their production estimate. If it it is lowered and with the funds overly short here, we could see a pop higher / squeeze into February.

1-5 – Corn is finishing the pull back into 383-380 and I am looking for the next rally higher into 425. USDA report this week which will move the grain markets. If revisions are made to production we could see a short squeeze.

1-12 – The USDA report last week lowered global production of Corn about 8%, and we have a lot of funds still short. I am expecting a rally here into February and should start to see it this week. The low Friday needs to hold, target is 4.25 per bushel.

1-19 – Follow through is key this week as the Corn market is waiting to see actual orders from the Chinese to begin to fill in the $40B promise they have made in purchases from the US in Phase 1. The market is acting as if they don’t believe that the Chinese will follow through. Funds are still short and looking for a squeeze higher into 425 or so into February.

1-26 – Took profit last week on the Corn position and looking to initiate another position later this week. Follow through this week is essential to making the high in February – still expecting 425. Market is waiting on China to place orders to follow through on the phase 1 deal. Up to now, there has been little follow through. Once they open up and start buying expect a squeeze in Corn and Soybeans to occur.

2-2 – No position here on Corn and this week looking at a possible new trade with a simple call spread. Short term trade into the next high window – we have compression building on Corn and expecting a thrust higher.

2-9 – USDA Supply Demand report this week may reflect changes from the Phase 1 deal and as such, we could see major rallies in Soy, Corn, and Hogs. So far Corn has demonstrated support at the trend line and I am still expecting a rally into early March. Once seen look for it to unravel back to the support trend line. For now a simple call spread is a decent play.

2-16 – So far Corn has done nothing since the USDA report which for all intents and purposes was neutral. Compression still building here and the monthly pivot is the gateway to the upside. Convert and we see $4 per bushel. The support trend line must hold and gun to my head the lean is higher and if this is to come to pass, we should see a move this week.

2-23 – Corn has gone no where and is still in a compression pattern. I am expecting a break this week and 70% chance it breaks higher. The old crop rally is usually this time of year and Wheat is on that path, Corn may follow. Little clarity in the chart here, 383 needs to convert to see bullish action.

3-1 – A lower low in ZC and we have the next long setup – there are demand concerns in this market and with the virus moving the markets daily, wait for the bulls to take the tape with a conversion of the monthly pivot.

3-8 – The old crop rally is about to finish this week. Look for a small wave C higher and then a sharp move lower into 355-370. With the slow down in exports, likely prices will drop.

 

Gold

11-17 – I decided to enter Gold on Friday as the overall trend is up and we are still expecting a legg lower as the retrace is incomplete. So I bought at a February ratio spread 1 X 2 1480/1500 for a decent credit which provides coverage into 1510 and also has a negative delta of -27. This means as gold falls this position in the short term will grow in value. I have the option of exiting with a small profit on a lower low if seen or if we break higher, I will manage any risk above 1510 using futures or exit the position. Likely we see a lower low and in case we get a break higher, I have a starter position in metals.

11-24 – The Gold trade is doing well, and with the slight negative delta we have a small profit. A stronger move lower and we will take some profit and may reposition the trade. For now, we are a hold as lower prices are expected.

12-1 – A small pop higher and a likely flat with resistance at 1480. Lower prices here would open a lower low and a strong long setup. Looking for a low window towards the middle of December.

12-8 -Silver is ahead of Gold here as the lower low and positive D is already in place. I am expecting Gold to follow in the steps of silver and make the lower low between now and December 18th. Current position is in profit and am holding.

12-15 – Gold will likely have one more push lower on the next retest higher in the USD. Look for 1450 as support which would be a double bottom retest. My sense is that we see a reversal this week in Gold.

12-22 – Still looking for the reversal in Gold and we may see 1495 first before seeing the lower low. Given the retracement pattern which is a flag, we should see a break of the lower trend line and then the advance. I am wrong above 1500 which is not expected at this point. Our short calls are well in profit and I am planning a modification to the position to take some profits on the short calls and swing our Delta long. The lower low here is key to the reversal.

12-29 – The flaggy retracement pattern has broken up and I have made an adjustment to Gold adding a 520/570 1X2 call ratio spread in March. This will hedge the position until we see a pullback. I chose this spread as I could put it on for almost no money and it extends the profit range of the position up to 1620. On a pullback I plan to make another adjustment to the position.

1-5 – Last week on a pull back I took off one of the short 1500 Feb calls and sold a put at 1520 in March to flip my delta long on the position. With the Drone attacks last week, I exited the Feb 1480/1500 call spread on Friday as it had achieve max profit and also took profits on the short put. I now hold the 1520/1570 ratio spread in March. Gold is overbought and a retrace is needed into 1530 or so before we see the next rally into 1620.

1-12 – Key resistance is at 1570 – if it holds we can potentially open 1525 as support for wave C. Expecting continuation higher into 1625. Watching this week for the 70 test and a China deal sign off on Wednesday. There may be last minute fire works, so stay tuned. Last week I adjusted the position with long delta by adding a – 1 March 1545 Put and +1 March 1620 call as a risk reversal. Looking to take profits on the 1545 short put later this week.

1-19 – No change from last week, 1570 key resistance and the three up we are working on now should complete around there. The support trend line should be tested after the 1570 area, from there if support we open 1600s, if not we see 1525. The decision should be made this week.

1-26 – The support trend line this week is roughly 1560 and it must hold. Additional volatility is expected as we head into FOMC Wednesday and the Flu outbreak in China is spreading around the globe which will impact the markets. Our position is long Delta and is in profit. I may take profit on the short 1545 puts before the FOMC meeting.

2-2 – Our Gold position is well in profit and looking for a pull back this week as we have a negative D setup and a pull back to retest the trend line expected. The Virus has supported the rally and with China back from New Year I am expecting an increase in volatility this week. Watch for support no lower than monthly pivot this week.

2-9 – Last week I took profit on the May 1545 short puts as we have risk to 1520. I may sell them again on lower prices. The position is in good shape and we have another $3k in profit from time decay possible with 18 days to go. I am looking for a retest lower into 1550 then the next rally. There is risk to 1520 which is possible but given the Corona Virus, any measure to contain the virus that are perceived to not be working will support a rally in Gold.

2-16 – A sideways formation in gold and a possible triangle forming. Looking for resistance between here and 92 and if seen expected a retest of the lower part of the range. The overall lean is gold is higher and a trip to as low as 1545 is still possible. Watch for the triangle support trend line as support.

2-23 – And a break up our of the triangle and with the Corona Virus news, likely we see a pull back and a higher high into 1660-70 as divergence has broken and we are likely printing a wave 3 here. Last week I closed the 1520/1570 ratio spread for a profit and also close prematurely the 1620 calls as we were getting close to expiration. Once we top out I am looking for a serious pullback into July. For now the lean is still higher.

3-1 – Target achieved and a rejection so far. Is this the top of Wave Y? Maybe. We need to see price action this week convert the monthly pivot and if seen, then new highs are possible. If by 3-13 we see resistance at the monthly pivot we can see gold go much lower into 1520. Gold has a seasonal low in early July.

3-8 – Finishing Blue Wave Y here with a higher high this week. We have a seasonal trend that starts to play out lower into July. Given the volatility in the markets I am not expecting much right now. Higher highs still likely into 1720-25. I will be watching for a reversal pattern later this week/next week.

 

 

 

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size until account size warrants an increase in position size. See the videos below for more information.

 

 

Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.

Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.

Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

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