Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #409. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.
Global Economic Overview
The global economic landscape continues to face mixed signals, with inflation showing signs of stabilization but still creating uncertainties, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors. Last week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting did not result in a rate hike, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that future rate increases are still on the table if inflation does not ease further. Despite no immediate changes, concerns remain about the ongoing impact of inflation, especially as energy costs continue to rise, further complicating recovery efforts.
China’s economic recovery remains sluggish, with the country grappling with weaker-than-expected demand for commodities, particularly in the industrial metals and energy sectors. This has rippled through global markets, suppressing some demand for commodities but also adding volatility as traders react to new data from the region.
Signs of Bottoming in Commodity Prices
Commodities are showing signs of bottoming out, with some analysts suggesting that prices are stabilizing as central banks worldwide signal more dovish monetary policies. However, challenges remain, particularly from supply chain disruptions in the energy and agricultural sectors. The U.S. dollar has weakened slightly over the past week, providing a supportive backdrop for commodity prices, though a clear recovery trend has yet to emerge.
Market-Specific Updates
Sugar
Market Overview:
Sugar prices remain volatile as supply constraints continue due to adverse weather patterns. Regions such as Brazil and India are experiencing varied impacts, with favorable production conditions in Brazil but potential disruptions looming due to El Niño. Global demand remains strong, particularly from the food and bioethanol industries.
Actionable Insight:
Traders should monitor global weather conditions closely. Long positions remain favorable, particularly as concerns about El Niño’s impact on global yields grow. Opportunities to buy on dips may arise, especially if supply disruptions become more evident in the coming weeks.
Coffee
Market Overview:
Coffee markets are highly sensitive to erratic weather patterns, especially in Brazil and Central America. Recent drought concerns in Brazil have escalated, increasing fears of supply shortages. Additionally, rising input costs, such as fertilizers, continue to keep upward pressure on coffee prices.
Actionable Insight:
Traders should continue to monitor weather developments and remain long, with stops placed just below key support levels. If the Brazilian drought worsens, it could trigger further price gains, offering an opportunity to add to long positions.
Live Cattle
Market Overview:
The live cattle market continues to be supported by strong consumer demand for beef, though rising feed costs remain a concern. Drought conditions in key cattle-producing areas in the U.S. and South America have created tighter supplies, adding to bullish market sentiment. The USDA’s latest report suggests that supply will tighten further as the fall season progresses, driving prices higher.
Actionable Insight:
Traders should look for breakouts above resistance levels, as supply constraints are expected to push prices higher. Long positions remain favorable, though traders should monitor feed costs closely, as volatility in this area could impact overall market dynamics.
Gold (GC)
Market Overview:
Gold prices experienced a rally last week, buoyed by Federal Reserve comments that signaled uncertainty around the future of interest rate hikes. Rising bond yields continue to create headwinds for gold, but the precious metal remains an attractive safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Actionable Insight:
Traders should maintain a bullish outlook on gold, particularly as inflation concerns persist. Adding to long positions on dips remains a prudent strategy, though stops should be placed below key support levels to manage downside risks in case yields continue to climb.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
The upcoming week could see heightened volatility across multiple commodity markets. Central bank policy decisions, including further guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve, will be critical in shaping sentiment, especially as inflation remains a pressing concern. U.S. employment and inflation data releases will also be closely watched, as they may provide additional insight into the trajectory of interest rates.
In the agricultural markets, weather patterns will continue to play a critical role, particularly in sugar, coffee, and livestock markets. Hurricane season in the U.S. remains a factor to watch, as any potential disruptions could significantly impact energy prices.
Key Data to Watch:
- U.S. inflation and employment reports
- Announcements from the Federal Reserve and other central banks
- Weather updates from major commodity-producing regions
- Geopolitical developments affecting energy and food supply chains
As always, stay tuned for updates and adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Trade Smart and Trade Safe!
As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
Coffee
Live Cattle
Gold (GC)
Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial – Click Here
COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
22nd Sep 2024
