Crypto Market Weekly Outlook for September 28th

Crypto-Currencies, Front Page / By

Welcome to this week’s Crypto Market Weekly Outlook, post #401, where we provide a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments and price movements across major cryptocurrencies. Stay ahead of the market trends with our expert insights on what to watch for in the coming days. This week, we continue to leverage our proprietary trading algorithm, designed to enhance your trading strategies and increase the odds of capturing significant gains in the volatile crypto mark

Cryptocurrency Market (Friday, September 26 close)

Bitcoin (BTC): ~$109,700 (down ~2 % on the day).
Ethereum (ETH): ~$4,000–4,200 region (suffered sharper weakness, heavy outflows).
Solana (SOL): Down ~5–7 % over the week, under pressure along with many alts.
XRP: Weakness in the 2–4 % range, following broader market stress.

Key Market Drivers

  • Massive Liquidations & Deleveraging: Early in the week, over $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated across crypto markets. The forced unwind hit BTC, ETH, and major alts harder.

  • Outflows from Spot ETH ETFs: Ethereum’s spot ETFs experienced their largest weekly outflows since inception (~$795 million), signaling pullback in institutional appetite.

  • “Red September” Wipeout: The crypto market gave back most of its September gains. Over $160 billion in value was erased over a few days of sharp declines.

  • Macro & Rate Focus: Markets turned cautious ahead of upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary. Where risk assets were bid after the prior Fed cut, this week’s volatility reminds markets of hangover risks from too much leverage.

  • Regulatory & Institutional Signals: A joint SEC/CFTC roundtable scheduled for September 29 is seen as a sign that regulatory coordination is evolving. Also, a new euro-stablecoin project backed by European banks gained traction this week.

Emerging Projects & New Crypto News

  • Euro Stablecoin Consortium: Nine major European banks (ING, UniCredit, CaixaBank, Danske, etc.) announced plans to collaborate on a euro-denominated stablecoin under MiCAR regulation, targeting launch by late 2026.

  • Token Migrations / Ecosystem Moves: Some token projects with upcoming migrations or swap epochs saw speculative upticks.

  • Spot ETH ETF Pressure: The large ETF outflows have raised concerns about funding and sentiment in the Ethereum space.

  • Regulatory Coordination: The SEC & CFTC roundtable on September 29 is expected to bring clarity (or at least signals) about how U.S. regulators plan to align oversight of crypto markets.

  • Institutional Rhetoric & Policy Posturing: As crypto prices declined, some voices (e.g. in media or policy circles) leaned into narratives of overleverage, blaming speculative excess rather than fundamental weakness.

Outlook & What to Watch Next Week

  • Inflation / PCE Report: Key U.S. inflation prints may force markets to reprice rate expectations, which will ripple into risk assets including crypto.

  • Support / Resistance Zones: BTC needs to defend ~$107,000; breaking below could test ~$102,000. ETH’s support zone is ~$3,800–4,200; weakness could cascade across alts.

  • ETF & Flow Trends: Watch for reversal or continuation of flow trends into/from spot BTC/ETH funds.

  • Regulatory Signals: Outcomes or commentary from the SEC/CFTC roundtable may shift sentiment, especially around exchange licensing, custody, or token classification.

  • New Project Catalysts: Token launches, migration events, listings or cross-chain moves may offer local relief or volatility within subsets.

  • Volume & Volatility Watch: With much leverage cleared, future moves may be more erratic in low-volume environments. Option expiries, implied volatility shifts, and liquidity gaps will be important.

 

GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model

The following charts present 6-month historical price trends for the top eight cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, XRP, BNB, ADA, and DOGE), using the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model, which is commonly used in financial markets to capture the clustering nature of volatility—periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and calm periods tend to persist. Using recent return data, the model projects expected volatility levels and translates them into forecast price bands with midpoint targets and potential highs under strong momentum scenarios. This is trial for the next 4 weeks and will be enhanced.

Bitcoin (BTC)

    • Current: ~$109,676

    • 90-day outlook: Expect ±2–4% daily swings. Likely consolidation between $92,000 and $122,000, with midpoint near $107,000.

    • Potential upside: ~$128,000 if ETF inflows and risk-on macro conditions return.

Ethereum (ETH)

    • Current: ~$4,017

    • 90-day outlook: ±2.5–4.5% daily volatility. Range likely $3,600 to $5,000, midpoint near $4,300.

    • Potential upside: ~$5,200 with strong staking flows and progress on upgrades.

Solana (SOL)

    • Current: ~$201.24

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; possible consolidation $160 to $240, midpoint near $200.

    • Potential upside: ~$250+ if institutional use in DeFi and NFT throughput gains.

XRP (XRP)

    • Current: ~$2.79

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely consolidation between $2.50 and $3.20, midpoint near $2.85.

    • Potential upside: ~$3.40–$3.60 if positive regulatory signals or ETF speculation return.

BNB (BNB)

    • Current: ~$977.90

    • 90-day outlook: ±2–4% daily swings; consolidation between $900 and $1,070, midpoint near $985.

    • Potential upside: ~$1,150+ if on-chain activity and DEX volume strengthen.

Cardano (ADA)

    • Current: ~$0.778

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely range $0.65 to $0.95, midpoint ~$0.80.

    • Potential upside: ~$1.10 if network upgrades and ecosystem growth pick up.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • Current: ~$0.229
  • 90-day outlook: ±4–6% daily swings; consolidation between $0.17 and $0.28, midpoint near $0.225.
  • Potential upside: ~$0.30 if speculative rotation and social momentum return.

Advanced Blockchain Investments

The previous  post have included Advanced Blockchain Investments. The blockchain space has rapidly evolved beyond simple cryptocurrency trading, offering investors various innovative ways to maximize returns.

 

Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

28th Sep 2025

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