The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies. Our current performance showing a more than 290% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This week, I am managing trades in cocoa, soybean oil, and natural gas, and looking to initiate new trades in corn, soy, coffee, silver and live cattle.
Last week, I started new positions in sugar and soy and am still holding natural gas and cattle. I am on spring break this week and will be monitoring the current trades daily and posting updates on the private Twitter feed.
All trades posted here are discussed in detail in our Daily Update Subscription Service and posted on our private Twitter feed. Our track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Soy – Re-entering the Trade
2-19 – Last week, I exited both trailers on both soy positions at 1009 and 1022 for nice profits. I am currently flat and waiting for a retracement to re-enter. This impulse ended a minor degree wave three and we did very well with 66% and 133% return on margins on both positions. I like to carry trailers and add positions on a third wave, especially with commodities. I will be watching for a re-entry at 1003s this week. I am expecting higher prices into 1050.
2-25 & 3-4 – Still waiting on the retracement on soy to re-enter the trade. It really needs to get into the RSI 30-40 area to have any chance of a re-entry. If seen, I plan to re-enter the trade. Cycles show bullish action into April. This is a much higher risk entry than the earlier two on this impulse so I will be waiting for an ideal setup. I don’t mind missing this one.
3-11 – This week I re-entered the soy trade with 1/2 size position on what appears to be a wave 4. My entry was 1047.75. I am looking higher still into the 1090 area and will add size once a turn is confirmed. Soy still needs a smaller degree 4 and 5 to finish the decline and we may see monthly pivot.
Sugar – Entering the Trade
I am hunting an 18-month cycle low in sugar and we have a reversal pattern in the form of a double bottom. My entry is just 1/2 size to start at 12.88 with risk to 12.50. If the lower low is seen the divergence on RSI should hold and I plan to add size. This may only be a corrective pattern to the upside and if seen we will take profits accordingly.
Soybean Oil – Managing the Trade
Soybean oil is a seasonal trade this time of year as there is not another harvest until May. I expected prices to rise steadily through the end of February. I have initiated a 1/2 size position at 33.29 and am waiting on a reversal pattern to add more size to the trade.
1-21 – Soybean oil is usually a seasonal long this time of year and I still like this long into the end of February. My stop is below the triangle trendline and I am planning to add size this week as we have clear positive divergence on RSI. I am a little early on my 1/2 size entry. Soybean oil usually has a decent February along with soy so waiting patiently on a reversal pattern here to add size.
1-28 – The seasonal trend in soybean oil I believe is now in action. I am riding only a 1/2 size position and will hold the trade for now until the retest of the low. Once seen I plan to double my size.
2-4 – It is time this week to add size. We are now in the retest and likely done here. I am waiting for a reversal pattern to enter. When seen, I will double up my size. We are in a seasonal trend higher and I am expecting the next high in early March.
2-11 – A reversal pattern here has formed—appears to be an expanded flat with a target in the $32 area. At this point, it appears that there is also a double bottom. There is risk to 31.50, I will be looking to add size this week.
2-18 – Soybean oil is at a point of a reversal—it has either already turned and we will see a rally this week or we will see a marginal new low to the trend line then higher prices. With soy in a seasonal rally, bean oil usually follows. I am still holding a 1/2 size position and will likely add another 1/2 size after a confirmation of the turn.
2-25 – Nice reversal as expected, looking higher into early March. We need to see a retest first and support demonstrated, then higher prices into the high window next week. I plan to start legging out of the trade this week.
3-4 – The reversal has seen continuation higher and at this point, I am waiting for a break to a new high. The cycle ends soon for this impulse so this week I need to see a break higher. Weekly and Monthly pivots are currently supported.
3-11 – The cycle high did turn as expected and we are in a flat – about to finish the 5th wave and I like a reversal here at the 100% fib. Bean oil lags Soy in a rally and I am expecting higher prices from here. On a break of monthly pivot, I plan to add size. If the 100% fib breaks then this trade is broken and I plan to find an exit.
Natural Gas – Re-entering the Trade
2-4 – I have re-entered natural on the pullback into the $2.90 area with risk down to 2.80. My entry was 1/2 size and $2.916. I am expecting a turn and support at $2.80. Any break of $2.80 and I plan to exit the trade as the next support level is lower at $2.60. I plan to re-enter the trade in the $2.60 area if seen. Cycles support a turn this week.
2-11 – Poor entries happen in trading; see a trend line, expect it to hold and sometimes it does not. My entry style on this trade was to enter on a three-down and if a small wave 5 developed, I would add size. So my plan was to add on a reversal pattern, which has yet to form. So the good thing that this trade is showing is how to not add size too early. The bad habit this trade is showing is not exiting as planned. Even if the trade is only 1/2 size, the discipline required still calls for an exit. The 5th wave has turned out to be larger than expected. The trade is not yet broken as divergence is holding, two areas I am watching, 2.70 and 2.83. Each can be resistance, if converted this week, we can see 3.20 easily. First I need to find my add spot which requires a reversal pattern. I may exit at one of the resistance areas if manifested. The cycle chart below calls for a turn by 2-13.
2-18 – Still waiting for the confirmation of a turn here which will occur above 2.82. Right now, NG needs to negotiate the $2.70 area which is resistance. There is currently risk to $2.40 and a full retest of the low. I am waiting to add size as I want to see $2.70 convert and see a retest that makes sense. Once seen, I will then add size. For now, I am patiently waiting. I am expecting the test at $2.70 early this week. Massive draws on inventory last week had little effect on price. We are entering the March shoulder season on NG which is usually good for a rally.
2-25 – The price action last week tested the $2.70 area as mentioned and has pulled back 50%. This is a decent setup for a rally into $2.83 if the current retracement low holds. Once seen, if $2.70 is support we see the rally. I am waiting on $2.70 demonstrated support to add size to the trade.
3-4 – Nothing has changed from last week. The shoulder season for natural is upon us. I wait for the resolution of a. is this a flag and will it break down OR b. will we break 2.74 and convert it into support. We should see the answer this week. I plan to ad size on the conversion of 2.74. There is risk to 2.40.
3-11 – The upper channel trend line was hit on NG and we expected a retrace. Key here is the 2.666 area and this trend line is critical to the rally. Any break of the lower trend line and we open a full retest of the low at 2.40. My lean is still higher on NG even if the low retest is seen.
Live Cattle – Managing the Trade
3-4 – I started a 1/2 size long position in Live Cattle last week at 124.075, no stop with a plan to add size. I am managing risk here with size, which is smaller than usual. I am looking for a turn this week as we are in the turn window and also at the 100% fib. Nice positive D here which is holding. On a break of 122 or a break of divergence, I will look for an exit.
3-11 – Still waiting on a confirmation of the turn on live cattle. We may see it this week as we now have closed above 123 and are not yet finished with the first impulse. The key will be the retest and the trendline we have just broken. Backtest the trendline as support and I like the next high window on 4-11 and the 130 area. Break the low and I plan to exit this trade.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
There is a substantial risk of loss of capital when trading and/or investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas, we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
13th Mar 2018
