Today?s video update we focus on SPX, RUT, Oil, USD and Gold.
SPX – Watch for a pullback and support tomorrow either at the middle bollinger band around 89’s or lower at the monthly pivot. If support is found, we should see the 2120-22 area. If support is not found and we break the monthly pivot, we open a double bottom test and potentially lower lows. Keep a two sided mindset in this market, price has been in a big squeeze higher as the short bus was full. Today was an NR7 day – the narrowest range day of the last 7 trading days. Tomorrow watch for an expansion. See the longer term SPX video with the cycle chart for more background.
RUT – We have broken above the monthly pivot and the middle bollinger band – watch for support tomorrow at the monthly. If we break the monthly we open more downside.
CL – Still in a bottoming process, still expecting to see 49’s. We should see downward movement tomorrow after legg C finishes.
DX – Downward movement expected tomorrow directly for? wave D to 94.50ish – if we delay and break the highs of wave A – triangle invalidates and wave 4 is in at the last swing low.
GC – Expecting lower prices down to 2092 eventually in a month or so. But gold is finishing the current decline by the end of this week. Watch 1136 and then a decent bounce in store back to the monthly pivot.
Hump day tomorrow, cycles also calling for trend days Thursday and Friday – Good Luck. 🙂
15th Jul 2015
I am mesmerized
The VIX was ~20 at the end of last week. VIX is now back to upper 12’s, an area where the SPX has seen significant pull-backs. Time to test support (~2085)? Nice video, and call on gold Stan!
A conviction break down 50 SDMA would be the first sign I guess..
XIV http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIV&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p78094519314&a=415686817
There we go Mike! Riots in the street, still could have a surprise in the morning with the midnight vote….
Even more important than the Greek vote is the votes by EU countries afterwards. Also, lots of earnings coming out rest of week. So far I’ve heard earnings beats, but revenue and guidance weak. If the trend turns down could see that SPX 2020-2040 range tested. If the trend turns back up we probably see new highs. Should know by end of week.
Is this chop still about Greece? Up dating link : http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/15/greek-crisis-mps-bailout-imf-debt-relief-alexis-tsipras-live
They will vote to night………..Can’t they get anything done during the day?! I am afraid to hold over night and beginning to get really pissed off at the greeks :
SPX Rock & a Hard spot http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=5&id=p37176705036&a=415644545
TVIX : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p97597793432&a=416156235
Watching 50 SDMA..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/greek-bailout-debate-begins-as-tear-gas-fired-outside-parliament
That is what causing this drop I guess..
TA wise , I wonder if this was our small correction , we did not break anything significant , do we see 2120 tomorrow morning after the greek midnight vote ?
In my point of view, only the deal not approved by Greek parliament would cause a siginificant drop.. Otherwise SPX will hit Stan’ s short term resistance area (2,120/22).. My two cents..
What a close ! stunning BS
Gone to cash
No Greek vote yet. C’mon guys, just do it!
Stan and Jack, Jack tweeted awhile ago that “May well see a run at the #SPX double bottom target tomorrow.” Can you elaborate a little? I have seen more than one double bottom support recently. What is the SPX double bottom that might be in play here? Thanks.
Greek Parliament votes in favor of bailout plan. At least that’s outta the way. Now all the EU countries have to vote. Geez…
Mike – i believe jack is referring to the 2120-22 area
Overnight watch ES 2115 as resistance – GC, small backtest then lower to target as mentioned on video – CL still making up it’s mind, like the 49 area still – tomorrow and friday possible trend cycle days on SPX – DOUBLE NR7 day today, tighter range = compression before the expansion
If there’s going to be a rejection at the double bottom target area of 2118-27 that Jack posted, it should be today (bearish H&S scenario). Also, VIX went below 12 today and is bearish. Any targets for a pull-back/downtrend? I know there are lots of support areas at around SPX 2085, 2070, 2040, 2019, etc. Any thoughts on lower lows, new lows though? (Of note, besides lots of earnings coming, tomorrow is opex.)
German parliament will be voting Greek bailout tomorrow (we will know the result after US markets close). Any bad news from there could cause a hard reversal on SPX starting on Sunday with a negative gap.. Daily lower BB would be the target then.. (2,040ish)
Resistance area (2120/22) probably broken up.. New highs target at a minimum..
Strong up today, and overbought. So far this year the SPX has had a significant decline after Opex (tomorrow). If it continues to advance thru Monday it should see a new ATH, and then some.
thanks for the posts mike – good stuff – Friday update coming this evening