Category: Indexes

First Retracement Target Hit

In my last post a week ago I was remarking at how very stretched SPX was and how near it should be to a mean reversion move, and the mean reversion high was then made within a few minutes of my publishing that post. The minimum target for that mean reversion move, last reached after...

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Category: Indexes

Nosebleed Highs

The high earlier this year was at the main resistance trendline on SPX, starting at the low in March 2009, support at the low in 2010, broken as support in 2011 and then backtested as resistance then and several times since. The high yesterday was just shy of a full test and that has broken...

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Category: Indexes

SPX Approaches Main Resistance

SPX has gone through a lot of trendlines and divergence on this amazing move up, with the last lot breaking on the move over the 3350 area including the negative divergence on the daily RSI. SPX is very stretched here, has punched 100 handles over the monthly upper band, touched an amazing 7.1% above the...

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Category: Indexes

Degrees Of Separation

My apologies for my being unusually quiet over the last few days, My wife of 23 years and I are starting the process of getting divorced and I have been distracted by that. It's definitely for the best, and likely this would have started a year ago if she had not been diagnosed with cancer...

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Category: Indexes

Stretched

SPX broke up through both of the inflection points that I was looking at in my post earlier this week with the second one at the island top gap into 3337.75 yesterday. SPX here is very stretched, but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher, and there are no longer any significant resistance levels...

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Category: Indexes

Testing 3300 on SPX

The nice topping setup from my post last week failed to deliver, with SPX finding support once again at the daily middle band, and the very nice bull flag channel on NDX failed to break down as I was hoping it might. Instead it continued to form and delivered the high retest that we have...

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Category: Indexes

Possible H&S Forming Here

SPX didn't quite reach the 3290 bull scenario target area that I was talking about last week but made a respectable 3280 or so before rejecting back into a retest of the established support and possible H&S neckline in the 3200 area. The SPX hourly RSI 14 sell signal reached the possible near miss target...

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Category: Indexes

Three Theoretical Bears

Just to start I want to state a clear health warning for the historical stats I'll be weighing at the start of this post. This stats can give a useful lean, but even an 80% bullish lean still assumes 20% odds that the market closes higher that day, and this lean in either direction does...

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Category: Indexes

Moving To The Next Screen

One thing I try to stress in these posts is that the movement of the market can, to a significant extent, be broken down into a series of inflection points and, depending on the outcomes at those inflection points, the market moves to the next inflection point or screen. Last week there was a very...

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Category: Indexes

Quick Update On COVID and SPX

I was reading a very interesting article yesterday on the progress of COVID-19 and it was interesting not so much because of what was said, as for the decent quality numbers that it was quoting on COVID-19 exposures in the US population, and the fatality rate from the now decently sized statistical sample of exposed...

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