Category: Statistics

High Retests Likely

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I mentioned in my post on Tuesday morning that the historical stats for the rest of this week leaned bullish, and that the stats for next week after the holiday all lean bearish, and after the low on Tuesday afternoon we've been seeing that deliver so far. I capped the chart below after the close...

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Category: Statistics

Taking Stock

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]One thing I always like to see on SPX the day after I call a possible high area is a big gap down and I wish that happened every time. Alas it does not, but it was nice to see that happen this morning. In terms of the trendlines I was looking at in my...

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Category: Statistics

Minority Report

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The SPX daily upper band ride finished a few days ago. SPX has gone higher in the last week, but not quite reached the upper band again, and there is no particular reason to think that the daily upper band ride might resume. SPX hasn't quite reached the obvious trendline resistance from the October 2023...

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Category: Statistics

Likely Retracement Coming Soon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I'm expecting to see a retracement of the move up from the October lows start soon, and there are some targets I wanted to see made on equity indices before that happened. The last two of those were made on Friday. The first of those was a retest of the all time high on NDX,...

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Category: Statistics

Daily Upper Band Ride – Day Seven

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was looking yesterday morning at the daily upper band ride on SPX which had been going for six days. That's not that long for one of these, the last three lasted six, seven and eleven days. Eleven days would be getting long in the tooth for one of these and I think I can...

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Category: Statistics

We Are Where We Are

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Friday 19th January was a disappointing day for bears. SPX made a new all time high, which had been obvious unfinished business above, and when ES was in the 4850 area there was an hour or so when there were lovely little double top setups on SPX, NDX and Dow, hourly negative divergence on all...

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Category: Statistics

Out With The Old Year, In With The New

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Today is the last trading day of 2023, and is the only significantly bearish leaning day this week. Historically the stats today indicate 38.1% stats for SPX closing green, and only 28.6% green closes on NDX. That doesn't of course mean that the day will be particularly interesting, but intraday at least the last couple...

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Category: Statistics

Boxing Day

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I hope everyone had a great holiday. I've had an enjoyable time at home with my three (adult) children. We're not religious, but it is always a good time to see and enjoy family. One slightly strange thing to the Brit eye about Christmas is that over here and in much of Europe the day...

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Category: Statistics

Hitting Rising Support on SPX

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I didn't really have time to fall much in love with the possible bull flag channel on SPX yesterday as it broke hard and SPX went directly to the main support level I was expecting to see tested later after a bounce. That level is rising support from the 2022 low in October which I...

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Category: Statistics

Love And Marriage

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I always try and keep an open mind, as too strong a directional view on any trading instrument can result in tunnel vision, where the analyst sees mainly or only the evidence that supports that view. That is an obstacle to good analysis, and for an analyst who trades, can get very expensive. In trading...

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