Statistics – The Art Of Chart

Category: Statistics

A Modest Proposal

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On Thursday night last week I posted a public model trade on my twitter taking a short on ES at 4561.75 looking for the 4350 area. That trade was in thirds, I posted all entries and exits in real time on twitter, and I took the last two thirds at 4399 yesterday for an average...

A Festival of Flags

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]SPX has seen a decent retracement from the highs, the reversion to the mean target at the 45dma has been hit, and a lot of decent looking bull flags have been forming on US indices. SPX may now be close to a retracement low, and a daily RSI 5 buy signal fixed a couple of...

So What Next?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Pretty much everything I have written about in my last few posts on SPX delivered. The bull flag wedge from the high broke up. The IHS that then formed broke up and made target, and the bull flag made the target with a retest of the June high. So what now? Well I was saying...

Binary Decision Point

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was looking earlier this week on the very high quality falling wedge that had formed on SPX from the last high and considering the odds that it was a bull flag setting up a retest of the high. Since then the wedge has broken up, retraced about 50% of the decline, and an IHS...

Hard Knocks

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Over the last few days SPX has been retracing and is approaching the first big support level. That is the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 4312, with the low yesterday at 4328. That is a target that may be reached today. SPX daily BBs chart:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="147307" img_size="large" alignment="center" onclick="img_link_large"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On the bigger picture, a...

The Road Less Travelled

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Two weeks ago I was looking at the stats for near misses of the 3sd daily upper band on SPX and looked at the twelve comparable instances going back to 2007. Eleven of those delivered some kind of short term high afterwards, so the odds leaned strongly towards that, but the other delivered a four...

Looking For A Short Term High

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The high last Friday was only three handles below the close on the daily 3sd upper band, which is a rare event, so I did what I like to do with rare events, I looked back and crunched some numbers looking at previous examples. These are the stats I posted on Monday morning. There are...

Veni Vidi Vici

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]In my premarket video on Tuesday I was looking at the setup and the historical stats and, was saying that a consolidation was likely to start the week and, then we would see what the bulls could do with the very bullish historical stats on Thursday and Friday. Well, they came, they saw, and they...

A Tale Of Two Indices

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A decent quality rising wedge has formed from the early March low, and that broke down last week. That could be a bullish underthrow of course or the wedge could be expanding. If wedge resistance is hit again today then at minimum I will assume the wedge has expanded, and redraw the wedge support trendline...

Back At Major Resistance

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Well the bearish stats for Wednesday and Thursday this week did not deliver, which was remarkable yesterday as at the start of the day there were hourly sell signals fixed on all of ES, NQ, RTY & YM. That equities went up hard instead was an impressive show of strength, bringing SPX back up into...