Tag: SPX

We Are Where We Are

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Friday 19th January was a disappointing day for bears. SPX made a new all time high, which had been obvious unfinished business above, and when ES was in the 4850 area there was an hour or so when there were lovely little double top setups on SPX, NDX and Dow, hourly negative divergence on all...

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Tag: SPX

Out With The Old Year, In With The New

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Today is the last trading day of 2023, and is the only significantly bearish leaning day this week. Historically the stats today indicate 38.1% stats for SPX closing green, and only 28.6% green closes on NDX. That doesn't of course mean that the day will be particularly interesting, but intraday at least the last couple...

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Tag: SPX

Boxing Day

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I hope everyone had a great holiday. I've had an enjoyable time at home with my three (adult) children. We're not religious, but it is always a good time to see and enjoy family. One slightly strange thing to the Brit eye about Christmas is that over here and in much of Europe the day...

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Tag: SPX

Hitting Rising Support on SPX

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I didn't really have time to fall much in love with the possible bull flag channel on SPX yesterday as it broke hard and SPX went directly to the main support level I was expecting to see tested later after a bounce. That level is rising support from the 2022 low in October which I...

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Tag: SPX

Love And Marriage

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I always try and keep an open mind, as too strong a directional view on any trading instrument can result in tunnel vision, where the analyst sees mainly or only the evidence that supports that view. That is an obstacle to good analysis, and for an analyst who trades, can get very expensive. In trading...

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Tag: SPX

A Modest Proposal

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On Thursday night last week I posted a public model trade on my twitter taking a short on ES at 4561.75 looking for the 4350 area. That trade was in thirds, I posted all entries and exits in real time on twitter, and I took the last two thirds at 4399 yesterday for an average...

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Tag: SPX

A Festival of Flags

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]SPX has seen a decent retracement from the highs, the reversion to the mean target at the 45dma has been hit, and a lot of decent looking bull flags have been forming on US indices. SPX may now be close to a retracement low, and a daily RSI 5 buy signal fixed a couple of...

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Tag: SPX

So What Next?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Pretty much everything I have written about in my last few posts on SPX delivered. The bull flag wedge from the high broke up. The IHS that then formed broke up and made target, and the bull flag made the target with a retest of the June high. So what now? Well I was saying...

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Tag: SPX

Binary Decision Point

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was looking earlier this week on the very high quality falling wedge that had formed on SPX from the last high and considering the odds that it was a bull flag setting up a retest of the high. Since then the wedge has broken up, retraced about 50% of the decline, and an IHS...

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Tag: SPX

Hard Knocks

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Over the last few days SPX has been retracing and is approaching the first big support level. That is the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 4312, with the low yesterday at 4328. That is a target that may be reached today. SPX daily BBs chart:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="147307" img_size="large" alignment="center" onclick="img_link_large"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]On the bigger picture, a...

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