The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of July 23rd

The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of July 23rd

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high quality setups and trading strategies for the coming week. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This week we manage our trade in Sugar and are looking for entries in Corn, Soy, Silver, and Natural Gas.

Our goal in this blog is to generate a 200% return in less than a year by swing trading futures that are not part of our regular service. Our track record is now posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.

Follow along during the week on twitter by following HERE.

30 day FREE trial now offered for Trader Triple Play – Click Here

Sugar – Managing the Long

5-28 – A news announcement from China about changing tariffs on sugar export hammered sugar prices. We were stopped out of the trade at even stop and exit with 1/3 in profit. This is a great example of how our risk management approach of taking profits at key fibs and transition points prevents loss of capital. We are looking for a re-entry once we see a reversal pattern. Timing shows a high window into 7-15.

6-4 – We tweeted out entries last week in Sugar and are currently holding 2/3s of a position long. We have a 200% fib which is my last legg down fib at 13.94 which we broke on Friday and we have over thrown the channel which is bullish. Having penetrated the 13.94 level we need an exit plan which I am watching the trendline at 14.19. If we see a back test into the trend line and resistnace, I will exit this position. Timing cycles call for a turn before 6-10 as we are in the 20 week low window. So if we see a convincing break of 14.19 we will hold the 2/3s of a position and add another 1/3 on a higher low into 7-15. There is risk of a full retest in Sugar to $12 so if we bail on this trade, we will look for an entry lower.

6-11 – As mentioned last week, our plan for support was blown so we chose to exit the trade. Did we exit or capitulate on the low? No – we planned an exit at the next resistance which was at 14.19 – 57 ticks higher. The point is support did not hold so to minimize risk we exited with a small loss. This is risk management. If the plan is busted, exit. Simple as that. Don’t justify or redraw your fibs to make a new plan. We are flat sugar and are now at an inflection point here against the trend line. Waiting on the resolution to see if we get the lower low.

6-18 – As mentioned, the break of support two weeks ago meant an exit according to our methodology and it was worth the effort. We now have a new low in Sugar. Looking for a turn this week with a lower low to 12.91. We tweeted out an entry last week, long 1/3 size. We will add another 1/3 on the next lower low. Cycles are set up nicely and we have Positive D on RSI. Watch for our next entry on Twitter by following HERE.

6-25 – Last week I tweeted out another entry in Sugar – adding another 1/3 of a position at 12.99 after we touched the declining resistance trend line. Nice positive divergence on RSI, support at 12.91 and 12.75. Looking for a bounce into resistance at 13.75 and then find a higher low.

7-2 – Looks like a turn is in progress. Sugar found support in the 12.91 area and has broken the 50% back area of the previous swing. We are 1/3 off in profit in a LIFO manner and our stop is just below the low. Looking for support in the 13.26 area and higher prices into the end of the month.

7-9 – Sugar is approaching our first target in the $14.50 area. We have taken another 1/3 in profit this morning as mentioned on our private twitter feed and keeping our stop at even. There is a possibility that this is a flag and we could reject here into a new low at $12. If we break above $14.50 we open our second target and cycle date of 7-20.

7-16 – Steady as she goes, waiting for 14.88-15.20 area for a possible three up. I expect to see a test of the lower trend line from there. Stops are at even as we wait to see resolution of the three up and lower trend line test. Sugar may be setting up a flag here, a break of the trend line and we will exit our last 1/3 and look to re-enter lower.

7-23 – We are in the high window and the structure is looking like a flag. I am now expecting a break of the trend line and  a new low of $12 by Sept 20th or so. I will be waiting until Monday to exit and possible getting short here.  If we see a big rally through 15.11, we will hold the current position.

Silver – Planning the Entry

Silver appears to have made a 40 week timing cycle low on 12/20/2016. We captured a long in metals in Gold on the first impulse up and exited on 2/8/2017 with the last 1/3 of the trade capturing 94 handles. We do not believe in counter trend swing trading unless it is a move of a month or more. We have been patiently waiting on this backtest in metals to enter long.

6-11 – Trend line break as expected and movement lower into our timing window. Expecting a higher low to the monthly S1. We are standing aside and waiting for the setup.

6-18 – As discussed, lower low and a decent setup. Metals in a nice position here to rally. I’m expecting a lower low here as I am expecting a rally in the US dollar. Waiting on the lower low to 1632 and a reversal pattern to enter he trade. I will tweet out the entry when seen.

6-25 – As mentioned last week on the Daily Update service, we decided to stand aside on metals as we are still expecting a rally in the US dollar. This morning we made a lower low on Silver and are watching for support at 1600 and 1568. We will enter the trade when we see the US Dollar near it’s expected target and a reversal pattern on Silver.

7-2 – The plan above has not changed and we have lower prices on Silver. USD rally is underway and possible turn is brewing on the chart below. Watching 1600 and 1581-1561. Positive D is setting up.

7-9 – Silver targets have been achieved, price is at the trendline this morning. This is a likely turn area, I am watching for a reversal pattern for the entry. Watch for our entry on twitter.

7-16 – We entered silver on the higher low as discussed on the Daily Update at 1548 and have exited 1/3 and 50% back the previous swing per our risk management rules and stops are at even. We are 5 waves up and I am looking for a back test into the lower trend line at 1580 or so. Find support there are we see 1692 in the first week of August. This can be a flag and any break of the lower trend line, we will exit this position and look to re-enter.

The US dollar is getting close to the $94 target we have been expecting which will have an impact on the silver rally. The monthly pivot test at 1692 is key to metals continuing to advance. We may see a full retest from there. Stay tuned for more.

7-23 – I am looking for a turn in the USD in the next 5 trading days which means the silver rally should reverse for a pullback. I will be exiting another 1/3 sometime Monday or Tuesday and holding the last 1/3 to target 1692.  I still expect silver to advance into at least the 1680s.

Natural Gas – Hunting the Turn

Natural Gas has been putting in a basing pattern for over a year and I am looking for a turn in the next week or so. Cycles say this is an 18 month cycle low, we have a reversal pattern, an IHS with support at $2.92. If this breaks down I am looking for $2.80. Center date for the turn is 7-10. Watch the twitter feed for our entry.

7-9 – Natural is ready for a turn – looking for a new low and positive D and a print of $2.80. Risk in this trade is to $2.73. Looking to enter this week.

7-17 – Natural did not make a new low and we are still waiting to enter – the turn window ends on 7-21. If a new low is not seen we will enter on the next back test. The setup looks good for a rally into Sept.

7-23 – I plan to enter NG on the current pullback on Monday and start a 1/2 size position with room to add at $2.80. Good cycles through September should push price higher.

Corn – Managing the Long

Corn has already broken out and we have been waiting on the back test and a reversal pattern for the next impulse. The problem with breakout trades is the back tests are always bigger than you expect. We entered on 7-17 at $389 with at 1/2 size. If we see a lower low to $370 we will add. If this breaks down we have support at 364 so a decent risk reward ratio given we are expecting new highs in the coming months. We will be updating to this entry later by increasing size, even if we don’t see a lower low.

7-23 – We exited 1/3 of a position in profit and are currently waiting to see if the trend line breaks down. If so we plan to exit this trade. Corn has an alternate which is a full retest at 360. If seen we are buyers. I’ll be tweeting out the exit on Monday if the breakdown begins. If support holds here, I am expecting a new swing high in Corn.

Soy – Entering a Breakout

Soy is another commodity where end of quarter money was put to work. I have been waiting patiently for the back test to enter the trade. I plan to enter on the next lower low. Soy has been in a multi-year triangle and our original target was $900 on the weekly chart. We came very close to that low before the turn occurred. At this point, the back test is almost complete and we are waiting on the 50% retracement at 979 with positive divergence on RSI. Watch for our entry on twitter.

 

Wheat – Entering a Breakout

Wheat has seen quarter end money flow into it like corn. This is the time of year for grains to be at their lowest prices as farmers begin a new agricultural year. There is a lot of volatility with sales, new hedges, etc coming into the market. I am expecting Wheat to find it’s footing here and I am expecting a rally into October. I entered long last week per the private twitter post and am holding the trade until either divergence breaks or the support trend line breaks. On a break of the trend line, I will be watching the Monthly S1 pivot for support.

 

Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial Click Here

 

Have a GREAT trading week!!!

COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.

 

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in Live Cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in Coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with Natural Gas, we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the Coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the Gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter Gold in a few weeks after a back test.

 

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

About the Author

Stan Nabozny
Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics . Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

Comments are closed.