Today the Wednesday update focuses on the usual suspects and I speak a little about trading, setups and managing risk. Hopefully this answers the question asked in the comments section about setups.? Video is a little long as a result. Will split next time into two videos.
SPX – Hit the 5-1 target and has retraced, expecting a back test then lower to the monthly pivot. Bears in must perform mode here, they need to control the closes and push lower starting tomorrow. At 2083, look for support, if found, new highs coming. Bulls must find support, if not the squeeze higher is just a B wave and we have lower lows coming.
CL – Same count – 49.20-60 area still expected. Bears need to get it done quickly as time is running out. Next decision is higher in the 57 area to see if we find resistance there. If found, all time lows coming. Otherwise we see higher prices to 65-67 then all time lows.
DX – 98.245 held as resistance, downdraft has begun. Expecting a lower high tomorrow then we open up a test of 94.50ish. A back test higher from there then 90.72 first target. Keep in mind back test means 50% or so pullback.
GC – In a 4th wave here to 1127ish – as high as 1136 – from that area then lower to 1065. Decent retrace from there then lower again. Cycle chart says we have only a few days left in the low window.
I spoke a little on trading setups and on managing risk. I will only cover trading questions when asked and? will primarily focus on TA in these posts. If you want more on trading setups and managing risk, ask and I will include more in a separate video.
Good luck the rest of this week. 🙂
22nd Jul 2015
Re trading : Very interesting distinction re TA setups and trading , thank you! The question was actually for Sunday, but I am very happy to get an early answer ! It helps immediately, Thanks!
Honestly, the most important things are position sizing (amount willing to risk) and exit strategy for each trade. Not to take anything away from what Richard and Stan are doing, as it is very good, but you can take their good set-ups and still blow an account up without proper to attention to the 2 things I mentioned. Van Tharpe was very helpful for me personally, in this regard. Good luck and I like the new blog.
Stan; where do think any bounce to make a lower high would end around? 2,125 SPX? TIA
SPX trying to turn back up http://screencast.com/t/6NeFYtfBlsWM
Volatile close DB on the 5min..http://screencast.com/t/W5uXG55Op
Close to a gap fill …but no dice http://screencast.com/t/9aKS9anZ5fUp
Waiting ES to slip below 2,100 to go LONG or a push higher (around 2,120) to go SHORT..
Otherwise CASH and just watching..
Thursday update – CL in the 49 as discussed over the last week – likely we bounce from right here or from a marginal new low 48.60-80 then the bounce. Bulls must get through 56’s on the bounce or we get another legg down
SPX/ES – downside is incomplete – lower lows coming after the bounce finishes – still looking for monthly pivot SPX 2083
DX behaving nicely as discussed – 96.85 support test coming today. GC – one more push lower to 85 area expected before the bounce higher to 1130’s. Once there decision made to go lower if resistance found. We are not done to the downside in gold yet
Interesting level (Piovt) here http://screencast.com/t/sxEKmdpJDNA
Diverergence : Interesting John Murphy chart : NYAD turnung down VS SPX http://screencast.com/t/SScU3GQ8ZLs ( Wed, Jul 22 2015 12:24 PM ET)
IE more weight to the thoughts here
E mini http://screencast.com/t/HXBrmJXRkXz
Bear flag (Too flat?) or a Flat consolidation before 2125 lower high ? Any way to tell? http://screencast.com/t/3NY1r3hF
Support : Backtest monthly pivot or 23% fibo? http://screencast.com/t/YvkcAsxOhCW
Any close above 50 SDMA would be a short term bullish signal which may take us to Jack’ s 2,114/15 SPX upside target.. IMHO
Now the question is if any possible move up will end around 2,114/15 SPX or make new highs..