Today’s update covers SPX, ES, RUT, Oil, USD, Gold and a cycle chart on the indexes.
SPX – So far so good . . . Have hit the lows expected in Chart Chat in SPX and RUT and looking for a three wave sequence back test – need a marginal new high before we see the next lower low. Today was a Bear market rally imho. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LOW WINDOW TIME WISE – bears have little time left. If the formation is going lower? bears have until the end of this week to get it done. Still expecting new highs in Sept/Oct, nothing has changed bigger picture, then major low in March 2016.
DX – Have broken the rising channel as per Chart Chat and have hit fib support. Expecting three wave back test then lower into 94’s.
Gold – Looks like we are ready for a bounce to higher targets – 1136ish area. We have divergence and a lower low and have exited the low window so 1065 was close but no cigar. One more legg down after we see what the gold bulls have, squeezy conditions exists so careful short there. Next low is a buy in mid August, a significant low.
CL – Oil fixin to bounce in three waves then lower to 45.80-45.56ish as 5=1 target – from there a large? bounce and as stated, on the large bounce if bulls cannot break 54.25, we will see lower lows and this next legg down can get ugly. Watch the 52.50-53.00 area as resistance. Squeezy conditions exist for a bear market rally.
Don’t forget to sign up for Chart Chat for this Sunday, 4pm CST.
Good luck the rest of this week. 🙂
UPDATE 7/29 8:00pm
Quick update – BIG inflection point here. Bear’s last stand. They must come out swinging tomorrow. Note the pitchfork and resistance. Break the pitchfork to the upside and cycle low is done. Likely we get a retrace tomorrow to either test the middle daily bollinger or as far as the monthly pivot (blue line). Break the monthly and we open 2040 and lower to 2028 quickly. Bull must find support tomorrow. If found we head higher into mid September.
E-mini below: Rising wedge has 70% chance of a break down. Watch 2108 as 5=1 target. Divergence decent here.