Below is the Wednesday Update and it covers SPX, RUT, ES, Oil, USD, and Gold. Am on holiday this week so no other updates planned this week. See you on Chart Chat this Sunday.
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Have a GREAT weekend!!! 🙂
19th Aug 2015
You deserve my subscription for the stuff you’ve done ’till now.
Would like to see:
#1 – package of current chart chat: indicies, bonds, oil, gold, dollar/euro
Sub package: softs, grains, meats, pound/Aussie
Chris, we are likely to offer an On Demand charting service – so that you can get the charts you want. Everyone is expressing different needs/packages – this would make it easier for us and for subscribers. Jack and I are working on it, more on Chart Chat this weekend.
Blown thru the MP as if it wasnt there. Is there a change in the outlook now?
no change – trendline support here – break the trendine and will change outlook
Looks more like a trending day. 🙁
SPX seems to have hit Jack’s 61.8 fib retrace today. BUT, it is an engulfing candle.so could go way lower you thinks? For educational purposes only of course.
Whiplash yet? This market is still stuck in a trading range between narrow pivots. If SPX closes in low 2070’s (or lower) than IMO it will be looking for 2040’s sooner than later. Above 2095 is bullish. Otherwise SPX is still range-bound. Rest of week should be interesting, to say the least.
Still waiting on wave C of triangle higher – SPX 2115-20 – then D back to lower end of range – DX, CL and GC turned and performing well as per Wednesday update 🙂
Hey, Jack? What is the timeframe for the wave c high? Thanks.
Dan – given what price did overnight, appears that C was short and that D is either in or close to done – we can still see 42’s before the bounce. But looks like the triangle may finish wave E in the 85-88 area. A break of 42’s invalidates the triangle. – http://screencast.com/t/21LqGCMrwQ8F will update this tomorrow AM as inflection point is here
Support became resistance ;dashed line was MP support 1 (S1) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=19&id=p56021851455&a=420780493
44 here we come……….Will it hold!
Anyone home?
Broke & retested the Stans magic spot on the ES and broke up again ……Come on C!
John, hope you saw this from earlier today: ” given what price did overnight, appears that C was short and that D is either in or close to done ? we can still see 42?s before the bounce. But looks like the triangle may finish wave E in the 85-88 area. A break of 42?s invalidates the triangle. ? http://screencast.com/t/21LqGCMrwQ8F – will update this tomorrow AM as inflection point is here”
Well, the inflection point came and broke so we are in a 5 down, expecting a retrace to not higher than SPX 63’s, watch 56’s for resistance first, then a new low is possible – more on video update tomorrow morning – below third standard deviation BB here and likely a band ride lower.
No , missed it…….. but no pain here! Thanks Stan
For what it’s worth John/Stan, ES appears to have made a near perfect 38.2% fib retrace from the ES October low to the current all time ES high so I will be surprised to see that close below on the first attempt, I think a bounce of unknown magnitude should be in the works tho I like Stan’s levels of 56 and 63 but I also have a ‘screw with bears’ 2080 test as a possibilty…. The 50% fib is @1973 which to me seems like the most probable place to try a long as its a test of the almighty 1980 level. 😉
JF/SB I have posted some screenshots based on my comments above.
Posted them as comments on SJs page. Link below if your interested
http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2015/08/bottom-lines.html
Hi XAN
My 2Cents
Fibs set where the circles are suggest some support as does the black diagonal line.
Resistance could be at the 50% fib which is right at S2 of the monthly pivot ….2056?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p42844084045&a=391096565
Hi JF, your december 14 fib is interesting as it coincides with the 38.2 of the rise from October 14. Your black line tho looks extremely speculative trying to fit with yesterday’s close. I give more merit to your green line near 2020. lets see if it holds.
Also take a look on SJ’s page, i’ve posted some charts in the comments section, let me know your thoughts…..
http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2015/08/bottom-lines.html
http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2015/08/bottom-lines.html
Xan! Right , miss read futures !
So much for bounce to 2122 – they missed this one
If you need to talk to someone who can predict with absolute certainty what will happen in the future, you really need to be looking for a priest rather than an analyst.
Analysts deal in probabilities and it can ALWAYS go the other way. Anyone who tells you that the market must do anything is a fool, or a liar, or both. We make no claim to supernatural precognitive powers here, just high quality TA.
We have a 70%+ hit rate and we’re very happy with that. We also made every effort to warn at these highs that there was early and potentially very serious weakness, and gave levels that should not be broken on twitter Tuesday night, in my posts yesterday and today and Stan in the comments here as this has developed. There’s not really much more we could have done.
Jack, you both have given very good information we are responsible for our results.
Thank you.
Thanks Kim 🙂
Going to be a fun few weeks now I think. A pleasant change after all these months of compression.
Seriously Roxie, how old are you? That comment was extremely immature and selfish. Trading isn’t fortune telling it’s a game of risk control and statistical outcomes. If you don’t understand that please don’t bother commenting unless it’s constructive. Jack and Stan provide everyone here with invaluable information with which to make trading decisions and they have done this for nothing. You have a choice to be hear and learn… or not. Personally with that attitude I think you either apologies or just go away!
No worries Ian, Roxie is right, 2122 did not happen. As a trader I don’t worry about what I miss, I concern myself with what is next.
Can’t think of what to do………Fri & options etc XIV started to fill it’s opening gap but fell back
OK XIV is filling a LOWER gap which should fill at 39.98 aprox