Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #414. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.
Global Economic Overview
The global economy continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and fluctuating energy prices. While inflation is showing some signs of moderation in developed markets, there remain persistent challenges in controlling costs across various sectors, particularly energy and food. Last week’s economic data highlighted a continued focus on central bank policies, with global markets reacting to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ongoing signals that further rate hikes may still be on the table depending on inflation trends. Meanwhile, China’s economy, though still struggling with its real estate crisis, showed signs of stabilization, which provided some support to industrial commodities.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have put pressure on energy markets. The potential for escalating conflicts continues to drive volatility across commodity markets, especially in oil and gas.
Market-Specific Updates
Crude Oil (CL)
- Market Overview: Crude oil markets remained highly volatile last week. Oil prices rose sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. The production cuts from OPEC+ continue to support prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russia signaling no immediate plans to reverse their recent supply cuts.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, particularly in the Middle East. Crude oil is expected to remain highly sensitive to any further conflicts, making long positions favorable, especially with support levels holding firm.
Natural Gas (NG)
- Market Overview: Natural gas prices have risen steadily over the past week, largely driven by colder-than-expected weather forecasts in key regions of the U.S. and Europe. European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains robust as countries prepare for the winter season, and U.S. inventory drawdowns have further tightened supply.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should look for buying opportunities as colder weather increases demand. Continued focus on LNG exports and weather patterns will likely drive price action in the coming weeks.
Metals
Gold (GC)
- Market Overview: Gold prices fluctuated over the past week, pressured by the strength of the U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. However, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact amid growing concerns about geopolitical instability. The escalation in the Middle East and persistent inflationary fears have added support for gold, although the upside remains capped by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should maintain a bullish bias on gold, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate further. Long positions may be considered on dips, with strong support seen around $1,900, while resistance remains at $2,000.
Copper (HG)
- Market Overview: Copper continues to face pressure from weak demand, particularly from China, the world’s largest consumer of the industrial metal. Although recent Chinese stimulus efforts have shown some positive effects, the overall recovery remains slow. The global outlook for infrastructure spending remains a key determinant for copper prices in the coming months.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should watch closely for further stimulus measures from China and other key economies. Copper may remain under pressure unless there is a significant uptick in demand or clearer signals of economic recovery in major consumer markets.
Agricultural Commodities
Sugar (SB)
- Market Overview: The sugar market remains steady, supported by supply concerns in major producing regions such as Brazil and India. Unfavorable weather conditions and the risk of El Niño continue to be key drivers, limiting global supply and keeping prices elevated.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should maintain long positions, as supply constraints are likely to persist in the short term. Weather-related developments, especially around the impact of El Niño, should be closely watched.
Coffee (KC)
- Market Overview: Coffee prices have remained supported by ongoing weather-related supply disruptions in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. The risk of frost and drought has raised concerns about future harvests, while higher input costs continue to exert pressure on the market.
- Actionable Insight: Coffee remains in a bullish trend, and traders should continue to monitor weather conditions closely. Long positions are favorable, with potential upside if supply disruptions intensify.
Live Cattle (LE)
- Market Overview: Live cattle prices have remained strong, driven by tight supply conditions and robust consumer demand for beef. Rising feed costs are a potential concern, but the supply-demand imbalance is likely to support prices in the near term.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should consider maintaining long positions, as cattle prices are expected to stay supported due to tight supplies. However, feed prices and shifts in consumer demand should be monitored closely.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
The week ahead is expected to bring continued volatility across the commodities market, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and weather-related developments. Key events to watch include:
- U.S. inflation data: Any surprises here could lead to shifts in central bank policy expectations, which would ripple through both energy and metals markets.
- Geopolitical tensions: The ongoing situation in the Middle East will remain a critical factor for oil and gas markets. Any escalation could drive further price increases.
- Chinese economic reports: As the world’s largest consumer of many commodities, China’s recovery progress will be closely monitored, particularly in metals like copper.
As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
Coffee
Live Cattle
Gold (GC)
Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial – Click Here
COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
20th Oct 2024
