Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #415. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.
Global Economic Overview
Global markets have faced heightened volatility this past week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifts in energy prices, and new economic data releases. U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was robust, showing a 4.9% annualized increase, which indicates continued economic resilience despite higher interest rates. However, persistent inflation, particularly in the energy sector, has led to speculation that central banks might extend their rate hikes to manage inflationary pressures effectively.
The Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for next week will be closely monitored, with investors weighing the likelihood of any additional rate hikes. Rising bond yields continue to pressure equities, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%. In Europe, inflation remains a challenge, though policymakers are cautiously optimistic as growth begins to show signs of stabilization.
Signs of Bottoming in Commodity Prices
Commodity prices, especially in the energy and metals sectors, appear to be finding support, with market participants speculating that recent geopolitical tensions and inflation data may sustain these prices. The U.S. dollar has softened slightly over the week, providing a supportive environment for commodity prices, especially gold. However, given the upcoming Fed meeting and ongoing geopolitical risks, traders should remain vigilant as these prices could experience volatility in the near term.
Market-Specific Updates
Sugar
- Market Overview: Sugar markets have been influenced by global supply concerns. Brazil, a key producer, has enjoyed strong production levels, but weather risks in regions like India and Thailand have kept prices elevated. There is continued uncertainty over El Niño’s potential effects on production, which could disrupt harvests in the coming months.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should monitor weather updates closely. Long positions are favorable, particularly if support levels hold. Short-term corrections could present buying opportunities amid supply concerns.
Coffee
- Market Overview: Coffee markets remain elevated due to unfavorable weather in Brazil, where recent reports indicate that frost and drought concerns may impact the coming harvest. Rising fertilizer and transportation costs add pressure, keeping coffee prices near multi-week highs.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should remain long with stops below key support levels. Weather conditions are a major factor, and any worsening could lead to additional upward momentum.
Live Cattle
- Market Overview: The live cattle market remains strong, supported by tight supply conditions and sustained demand. The USDA has noted potential tightening in livestock supply, with feed prices remaining elevated. The market is closely monitoring feed costs as these could impact production in the coming months.
- Actionable Insight: Traders may look for a breakout above resistance levels. Long positions remain favorable, though closely monitoring feed price trends is prudent given the potential for cost-driven market fluctuations.
Gold (GC)
- Market Overview: Gold has experienced support as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the rising tensions in the Middle East. Despite higher U.S. Treasury yields, which typically weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, the metal remains attractive due to inflation concerns and USD softening.
- Actionable Insight: A bullish outlook remains, with long positions attractive given the current geopolitical landscape. Adding on dips may be wise, though stops should be managed to account for any unexpected shifts in Treasury yields.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
The coming week holds potential volatility for commodities and global markets as investors await the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Market sentiment will largely hinge on Fed commentary and any signals regarding future monetary policy. In the energy markets, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns will continue to influence crude oil and natural gas prices.
Agricultural commodities, particularly sugar and coffee, remain sensitive to weather forecasts and global production data. Any significant changes in weather or crop reports from Brazil, India, or Thailand could lead to price shifts. For livestock markets, feed costs and demand for beef will be key drivers as we head into the colder months.
Key Data to Watch:
- Federal Reserve meeting and rate announcements
- U.S. inflation and employment reports
- Weather patterns in key commodity-producing regions
- Geopolitical developments impacting energy and food supply chains
As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
Coffee
Live Cattle
Gold (GC)
Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial – Click Here
COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
27th Oct 2024
