Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #417. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.
Global Economic Overview
Global markets experienced notable volatility this past week, driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, movements in energy prices, and key economic data releases. The U.S. job report showed higher-than-expected job growth and stable wages, underscoring continued resilience in the U.S. economy. However, inflation, particularly within the energy sector, remains a concern as central banks may consider extended rate hikes to manage these pressures effectively.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is set to be a focal point for the market, as investors speculate on any potential rate changes or forward guidance. Meanwhile, bond yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 5%, maintaining pressure on equities. In Asia, regulatory developments in Japan hint at an increasingly crypto-friendly environment, potentially attracting more capital to blockchain-based commodities trading.
Signs of Stability in Commodity Prices
Commodity prices, especially in the energy and metals sectors, showed signs of stabilization, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold, in particular, found renewed interest as a safe-haven asset amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Traders should remain cautious, however, as upcoming Fed decisions and global risk factors could introduce further price volatility.
Market-Specific Updates
Sugar
- Market Overview: The sugar market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by global supply dynamics. Brazil’s robust production has provided some stability, but weather concerns in India and Thailand keep prices elevated. The uncertainty surrounding the potential effects of El Niño continues to be a significant risk factor.
- Actionable Insight: Traders should stay informed on weather forecasts. Maintaining long positions could be beneficial, particularly if support levels are sustained. Short-term dips may offer strategic entry points amid ongoing supply concerns.
Coffee
- Market Overview: Coffee prices remain elevated, driven by adverse weather in Brazil, including frost and drought warnings that could affect upcoming harvests. Rising costs for fertilizers and transportation are adding upward pressure, maintaining coffee prices near recent highs.
- Actionable Insight: Long positions should be maintained with careful stops below key support thresholds. Continued monitoring of weather conditions is essential, as any worsening could fuel further price increases.
Live Cattle
- Market Overview: The live cattle market remains bullish due to tight supply conditions and steady demand. USDA reports suggest potential tightening in livestock availability, compounded by high feed prices. The industry is closely observing feed costs as they could affect production levels in the coming months.
- Actionable Insight: A breakout above current resistance levels could signal continued gains. Traders should favor long positions but remain alert to trends in feed prices, as they may trigger cost-driven market shifts.
Gold (GC)
- Market Overview: Gold has seen strong support as geopolitical risks escalate, particularly in the Middle East. Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields, which typically put downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold, inflation worries and a softened U.S. dollar have kept the metal attractive.
- Actionable Insight: A bullish perspective is recommended, with long positions favored amid the current geopolitical landscape. Adding positions during price dips may be strategic, though managing stops carefully is advised to account for any unexpected shifts in Treasury yields.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
The coming week is set to be pivotal for commodities and broader markets as attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Market sentiment will hinge on any indications from the Fed regarding future monetary policy directions. Additionally, energy markets are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, influencing both crude oil and natural gas prices.
Agricultural commodities like sugar and coffee will be particularly affected by weather developments and global production updates. Any significant changes in crop forecasts from key producing regions such as Brazil, India, or Thailand could lead to price adjustments. For livestock markets, feed costs and winter season demand will be key factors influencing prices.
Key Data to Watch:
- Federal Reserve meeting and rate announcements
- U.S. inflation and employment reports
- Weather patterns in major commodity-producing areas
- Geopolitical developments impacting energy and food supply chains
Stay tuned as global market conditions continue to evolve, and trade smart!
As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
Coffee
Live Cattle
Gold (GC)
Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial – Click Here
COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
03rd Nov 2024
