Crypto Market Weekly Outlook for October 12th

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Welcome to this week’s Crypto Market Weekly Outlook, post #403, where we provide a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments and price movements across major cryptocurrencies. Stay ahead of the market trends with our expert insights on what to watch for in the coming days. This week, we continue to leverage our proprietary trading algorithm, designed to enhance your trading strategies and increase the odds of capturing significant gains in the volatile crypto mark

Cryptocurrency Market (Friday, October 10 close)

Bitcoin (BTC): Closed around $111,780, down ~1.8% for the week after a volatile trading range between $109,700 and $113,600.
Ethereum (ETH): Around $3,810, softer by ~2% on ETF outflows and declining staking yields.
Solana (SOL): Approximately $210, off ~4% as volume rotated to BTC and ETH.
XRP (XRP): Near $2.88, slightly weaker on lighter institutional flows.
BNB (BNB): About $965, steady within a tight range amid strong DEX activity.
Cardano (ADA): Roughly $0.77, down slightly with muted network news.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Around $0.23, flat on the week, maintaining steady retail interest.

Key Market Drivers

  • Bitcoin Consolidation: After an early-October rally toward $115K, BTC spent the week consolidating as traders balanced ETF inflows against macro uncertainty.

  • Ethereum Pressure: Continued ETF redemptions and falling staking APYs weighed on ETH, despite optimism around upcoming protocol upgrades.

  • Macro Headwinds: Sticky inflation data and hawkish Fed remarks reduced appetite for risk assets mid-week, briefly pushing crypto lower before a Friday recovery.

  • Stablecoin Growth: Global stablecoin supply rose modestly for the first time in six weeks, signaling tentative liquidity returning to the market.

  • Regulatory Spotlight: The SEC delayed decisions on Solana and XRP-linked ETF applications, maintaining regulatory caution through October.

  • Institutional Rotation: Fund flows indicate a rotation back toward Bitcoin and large-cap assets, as volatility across smaller tokens picked up.

Emerging Crypto Projects & Ecosystem News

  • Arclight (ACT): The AI-chain project completed its mainnet launch and began onboarding decentralized AI data nodes, spurring modest ecosystem inflows.

  • Nexus Yield (NYX): Announced its first RWA-backed yield vault partnership, moving closer to integrating tokenized treasury assets.

  • Rollblock (RBLK): Expanded its liquidity rewards and marketing campaign, citing continued growth in GambleFi volume.

  • Remittix (RTX): Confirmed wallet beta expansion and new exchange listings slated for late October.

  • Euro Stablecoin Initiative: European banking consortium finalized technical framework for its MiCAR-compliant EUR-backed stablecoin, targeting early 2026 rollout.

  • Cross-Chain Liquidity Bridges: Several mid-cap projects announced interoperability upgrades between Solana, Ethereum, and Avalanche ecosystems to reduce bridging friction.

Market Sentiment & Outlook

  • BTC Support: $108,000 remains the near-term support zone; upside targets remain around $118,000–$120,000.

  • ETH Range: Trading between $3,600 and $4,200; a breakout above $4,200 could spark renewed institutional interest.

  • Altcoin Landscape: Broader altcoin sector remains range-bound; SOL and BNB showing relative strength while meme tokens remain stagnant.

  • Macro Factors: Markets will watch U.S. CPI and retail sales data next week for clues on Fed policy trajectory and overall risk appetite.

  • ETF Watch: October continues to be a key month for ETF filings; any approval or extension could shift short-term volatility sharply.

  • Liquidity & Sentiment: Overall liquidity conditions have stabilized, though sentiment remains cautious following September’s deleveraging.

 

 

GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model

The following charts present 6-month historical price trends for the top eight cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, XRP, BNB, ADA, and DOGE), using the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model, which is commonly used in financial markets to capture the clustering nature of volatility—periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and calm periods tend to persist. Using recent return data, the model projects expected volatility levels and translates them into forecast price bands with midpoint targets and potential highs under strong momentum scenarios. This is trial for the next 4 weeks and will be enhanced.

Bitcoin (BTC)

    • Current: ~$109,676

    • 90-day outlook: Expect ±2–4% daily swings. Likely consolidation between $92,000 and $122,000, with midpoint near $107,000.

    • Potential upside: ~$128,000 if ETF inflows and risk-on macro conditions return.

Ethereum (ETH)

    • Current: ~$4,017

    • 90-day outlook: ±2.5–4.5% daily volatility. Range likely $3,600 to $5,000, midpoint near $4,300.

    • Potential upside: ~$5,200 with strong staking flows and progress on upgrades.

Solana (SOL)

    • Current: ~$201.24

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; possible consolidation $160 to $240, midpoint near $200.

    • Potential upside: ~$250+ if institutional use in DeFi and NFT throughput gains.

XRP (XRP)

    • Current: ~$2.79

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely consolidation between $2.50 and $3.20, midpoint near $2.85.

    • Potential upside: ~$3.40–$3.60 if positive regulatory signals or ETF speculation return.

BNB (BNB)

    • Current: ~$977.90

    • 90-day outlook: ±2–4% daily swings; consolidation between $900 and $1,070, midpoint near $985.

    • Potential upside: ~$1,150+ if on-chain activity and DEX volume strengthen.

Cardano (ADA)

    • Current: ~$0.778

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely range $0.65 to $0.95, midpoint ~$0.80.

    • Potential upside: ~$1.10 if network upgrades and ecosystem growth pick up.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • Current: ~$0.229
  • 90-day outlook: ±4–6% daily swings; consolidation between $0.17 and $0.28, midpoint near $0.225.
  • Potential upside: ~$0.30 if speculative rotation and social momentum return.

Advanced Blockchain Investments

The previous  post have included Advanced Blockchain Investments. The blockchain space has rapidly evolved beyond simple cryptocurrency trading, offering investors various innovative ways to maximize returns.

 

Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

12th Oct 2025

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