Crypto Market Weekly Outlook for November 16th

Crypto-Currencies, Front Page / By

Welcome to this week’s Crypto Market Weekly Outlook, post #408, where we provide a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments and price movements across major cryptocurrencies. Stay ahead of the market trends with our expert insights on what to watch for in the coming days. This week, we continue to leverage our proprietary trading algorithm, designed to enhance your trading strategies and increase the odds of capturing significant gains in the volatile crypto mark

Cryptocurrency Market (Friday close estimated)

Bitcoin (BTC): ~ $94,000 – down significantly for the week amid broad risk-off flows.
Ethereum (ETH): ~ $3,200 – weakened more sharply than Bitcoin, pressured by outflows and uncertain macro backdrop.
Solana (SOL): ~ $170‒$185 – underperformed majors, reflecting broader altcoin softness.
XRP (XRP): ~ $2.40‒$2.60 – slightly weaker, with regulatory/ETF hopes fading temporarily.
BNB (BNB): ~ $1,000 – held up relatively better, though still down amid sector de-risking.
Cardano (ADA): ~ $0.60‒$0.65 – showed weakness with limited near-term catalyst.
Dogecoin (DOGE): ~ $0.18‒$0.20 – flat to down, retail speculative demand remains muted.

Key Market Drivers

  • Broad Risk-Off Shift: The crypto market entered a deeper correction phase as major tokens breached key support levels.

  • Interest Rate & Fed Outlook: Markets downgraded near-term rate-cut expectations, pushing risk assets (including crypto) lower.

  • ETF & Flow Headwinds: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw substantial redemptions this week, signaling investor caution.

  • Sentiment Metrics Plunge: Fear & greed indicators in crypto entered “extreme fear” territory, suggesting capitulation pressure.

  • Altcoin Rhythm: Infrastructure and speculative tokens alike traded lower; while some projects build quietly, overall capital flow is retreating from these tiers.

  • Macro Data Weakness: Mixed global growth signals (especially in the U.S. and Europe) added to the caution prevailing across all risk assets.

Emerging Crypto Projects & Ecosystem News

  • New Presale Activity: Several small-cap projects in payments and gaming announced token launches/presales, but amidst broader market weakness, traction remains moderate.

  • Institutional Realignment: Large crypto holders (“whales”) increased sales; data show elevated net selling from long-term holders this past month.

  • Layer-2 Usage Resilient: While token prices fell, networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base recorded modestly stable throughput, hinting at underlying structural demand despite adverse sentiment.

  • European Stablecoin Progress: The MiCAR-compliant euro stablecoin initiative advanced its test phase, keeping institutional stablecoin alternatives in focus.

  • Regulatory & Legal Overhang: High-profile regulatory updates and looming enforcement actions continue weighing on investor confidence in crypto infrastructure and flows.

Market Sentiment & Outlook

  • Current Sentiment: Risk of further downside remains elevated. With support zones being tested and flows weak, crypto is in a consolidation or potential breakdown phase rather than a fresh breakout.

  • Support / Resistance Levels:
     • BTC: Support ~ $90,000–$95,000; resistance now ~ $105,000–$108,000.
     • ETH: Support ~ $3,000–$3,300; resistance ~ $3,800–$4,000.
     • Altcoins (SOL, ADA, etc): Support zones shifted lower; speculative upside is limited until broader market stabilises.

  • Outlook for Recovery: Crypto needs a catalyst—either positive macro data, renewed ETF inflows, or a meaningful regulatory or adoption development—to shift from consolidation into renewed upside.

  • Strategy Note: With volatility high and risk appetite low, favour higher-quality infrastructure tokens, maintain tight risk control, and avoid chasing speculative moves until sentiment improves.

 

GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model

The following charts present 6-month historical price trends for the top eight cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, XRP, BNB, ADA, and DOGE), using the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) volatility model, which is commonly used in financial markets to capture the clustering nature of volatility—periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and calm periods tend to persist. Using recent return data, the model projects expected volatility levels and translates them into forecast price bands with midpoint targets and potential highs under strong momentum scenarios. This is trial for the next 4 weeks and will be enhanced.

Bitcoin (BTC)

    • 90-day outlook: Expect ±2–4% daily swings. Likely consolidation between $92,000 and $122,000, with midpoint near $107,000.

    • Potential upside: ~$128,000 if ETF inflows and risk-on macro conditions return.

Ethereum (ETH)

    • 90-day outlook: ±2.5–4.5% daily volatility. Range likely $3,600 to $5,000, midpoint near $4,300.

    • Potential upside: ~$5,200 with strong staking flows and progress on upgrades.

Solana (SOL)

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; possible consolidation $160 to $240, midpoint near $200.

    • Potential upside: ~$250+ if institutional use in DeFi and NFT throughput gains.

XRP (XRP)

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely consolidation between $2.50 and $3.20, midpoint near $2.85.

    • Potential upside: ~$3.40–$3.60 if positive regulatory signals or ETF speculation return.

BNB (BNB)

    • 90-day outlook: ±2–4% daily swings; consolidation between $900 and $1,070, midpoint near $985.

    • Potential upside: ~$1,150+ if on-chain activity and DEX volume strengthen.

Cardano (ADA)

    • 90-day outlook: ±3–5% daily swings; likely range $0.65 to $0.95, midpoint ~$0.80.

    • Potential upside: ~$1.10 if network upgrades and ecosystem growth pick up.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • 90-day outlook: ±4–6% daily swings; consolidation between $0.17 and $0.28, midpoint near $0.225.
  • Potential upside: ~$0.30 if speculative rotation and social momentum return.

Advanced Blockchain Investments

The previous  post have included Advanced Blockchain Investments. The blockchain space has rapidly evolved beyond simple cryptocurrency trading, offering investors various innovative ways to maximize returns.

 

Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

16th Nov 2025

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