Wednesday Update – SPX, RUT, Oil, USD and Gold

Today?s video update we focus on SPX, RUT, Oil, USD and Gold.

SPX – Watch for a pullback and support tomorrow either at the middle bollinger band around 89’s or lower at the monthly pivot. If support is found, we should see the 2120-22 area. If support is not found and we break the monthly pivot, we open a double bottom test and potentially lower lows. Keep a two sided mindset in this market, price has been in a big squeeze higher as the short bus was full. Today was an NR7 day – the narrowest range day of the last 7 trading days. Tomorrow watch for an expansion. See the longer term SPX video with the cycle chart for more background.

RUT – We have broken above the monthly pivot and the middle bollinger band – watch for support tomorrow at the monthly. If we break the monthly we open more downside.

CL – Still in a bottoming process, still expecting to see 49’s. We should see downward movement tomorrow after legg C finishes.

DX – Downward movement expected tomorrow directly for? wave D to 94.50ish – if we delay and break the highs of wave A – triangle invalidates and wave 4 is in at the last swing low.

GC – Expecting lower prices down to 2092 eventually in a month or so. But gold is finishing the current decline by the end of this week. Watch 1136 and then a decent bounce in store back to the monthly pivot.

Hump day tomorrow, cycles also calling for trend days Thursday and Friday – Good Luck. 🙂

Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

15th Jul 2015

22 thoughts on “Wednesday Update – SPX, RUT, Oil, USD and Gold”

  1. The VIX was ~20 at the end of last week. VIX is now back to upper 12’s, an area where the SPX has seen significant pull-backs. Time to test support (~2085)? Nice video, and call on gold Stan!

      1. Even more important than the Greek vote is the votes by EU countries afterwards. Also, lots of earnings coming out rest of week. So far I’ve heard earnings beats, but revenue and guidance weak. If the trend turns down could see that SPX 2020-2040 range tested. If the trend turns back up we probably see new highs. Should know by end of week.

  2. Is this chop still about Greece? Up dating link : http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/15/greek-crisis-mps-bailout-imf-debt-relief-alexis-tsipras-live

    They will vote to night………..Can’t they get anything done during the day?! I am afraid to hold over night and beginning to get really pissed off at the greeks :
    SPX Rock & a Hard spot http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=5&id=p37176705036&a=415644545

    TVIX : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p97597793432&a=416156235

        1. In my point of view, only the deal not approved by Greek parliament would cause a siginificant drop.. Otherwise SPX will hit Stan’ s short term resistance area (2,120/22).. My two cents..

  3. No Greek vote yet. C’mon guys, just do it!

    Stan and Jack, Jack tweeted awhile ago that “May well see a run at the #SPX double bottom target tomorrow.” Can you elaborate a little? I have seen more than one double bottom support recently. What is the SPX double bottom that might be in play here? Thanks.

  4. Overnight watch ES 2115 as resistance – GC, small backtest then lower to target as mentioned on video – CL still making up it’s mind, like the 49 area still – tomorrow and friday possible trend cycle days on SPX – DOUBLE NR7 day today, tighter range = compression before the expansion

  5. If there’s going to be a rejection at the double bottom target area of 2118-27 that Jack posted, it should be today (bearish H&S scenario). Also, VIX went below 12 today and is bearish. Any targets for a pull-back/downtrend? I know there are lots of support areas at around SPX 2085, 2070, 2040, 2019, etc. Any thoughts on lower lows, new lows though? (Of note, besides lots of earnings coming, tomorrow is opex.)

    1. German parliament will be voting Greek bailout tomorrow (we will know the result after US markets close). Any bad news from there could cause a hard reversal on SPX starting on Sunday with a negative gap.. Daily lower BB would be the target then.. (2,040ish)

    2. Strong up today, and overbought. So far this year the SPX has had a significant decline after Opex (tomorrow). If it continues to advance thru Monday it should see a new ATH, and then some.

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