The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of November 6th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high quality setups and trading strategies for the coming week. We carefully select these setups due to their quality and profit potential and report back on results. This week we review Live Cattle, Gold and Coffee.

Live Cattle follow up

Bigger picture in Live Cattle, we have been hunting a big turn at a 18 month cycle low.

So far here is what we have done:

— 10-03 – We have a profit potential of $3.80 on 1/3 of a position from the turn on 10/03, we were stopped out on the next move lower to a new low

— 10-16 – We recommended getting long again on the great setup at the Monthly S1 which was near the 100% fib at 95.70 AND at the declining resistance trend line.So far we have a profit potential of $7.90 from this entry. We encourage everyone to take off 2/3 of your position here and place your stop an even for a risk free position.

— 10-30 – We were five waves up and looking for a significant backtest into the monthly pivot at 102.625. We have gotten exactly the backtest we discussed.

This week, if the bulls can create support at the monthly pivot and not break the channel, live cattle continues to go higher into 109.50-110. If the monthly pivot breaks we open a full retest and possible new lows to $94. This is a big decision, we suggest having a stop below the monthly pivot on the last 1/3 of the position and wait on resolution of the inflection point.

— We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swings we suggested. So far we are up $11.70 in one month which for Live Cattle is a max profit of $4,680 per lot.

We cannot confirm the low and we cannot confirm a trend change yet. If the monthly pivot breaks and we are stopped out on the last 1/3, we get to do this all over again. We will be buyers at $94 if seen.

We may have just seen the 18 month cycle low which means we may have a potential trend change sometime in November.

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Cycle Chart for Live Cattle showing cycle alignment

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Gold Support Test This Week

We are hunting a low window in Gold and looking for a 60 handle trade to the upside. So far we have achieved 50 handles :

10-16 – We recommended a long in Gold on a higher low setup at 1252. So far we have $32.00 of profit potential.

10-30 – We recommended taking 2/3 of your position in profit and setting your stop to even for a risk free position. We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of this swing. So far in gold we have $5,000 in max profit.

This week we are looking for a small divergence legg higher to 1318 or so to form negative D on RSI then a definition backtest. If the backtest finds support at the monthly pivot inflection area at 1279, then we would add to our long position and expect 1320’s next. If it breaks the monthly pivot we can open a full retest and a possible new low to 1235.

The Cycle High Window calls price higher into early November. We are expecting this high window turn this week.

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Cycle Chart for Gold showing cycle alignment

 

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Coffee showing a counter trend setup

We are hunting a big counter trend move in coffee and look for a potential entry last week. We called the turn in coffee back in February and called a trend change in June. We have a nice rounded bottom in Coffee on the Daily chart. Five up into the larger degree W means we have a significant backtest brewing.

11-30 – Coffee last week we were looking for two resistances –  167.30 monthly R2 and 168.25 100% fib as possible resistance. Both failed and we have made a new high.

This week, we are still looking for the turn and a significant backtest and we now have negative D on RSI and possible resistance at 173.75. We recommend an entry THIS WEEK – and suggest waiting for a lower high and trading against 173.75. If 173.75 is broken we suggest the next entry attempt at the resistance trendline.

NOTE – this is a counter trend trade and represents greater risk, on a trade below 165, take off 1/3 and put your stop to even to create a risk free position.

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Have a GREAT trading week!!!

 

 

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Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

06th Nov 2016

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