Potholes On The Yellow Brick Road

On Thursday morning my SPX path that has held the last four weeks hit a serious pothole with the break below shorter term rising wedge support and a break back into the high 2800s. I’ve been looking carefully at the options from here and there are clear bull and bear scenarios. Price needs to give direction but until demonstrated otherwise I’m leaning towards the bullish option that SPX has another new ATH into what well then be a high that lasts well into 2019.

RUT has been leading the market, as is often the case and is testing the 200dma, which is holding so far. On a break below the next big support is rising support from the early 2016 low. A break below that would be a major technical break. RUT daily chart:

On SPX shorter term rising wedge support was broken and SPX came close to a test of main rising channel support at the low on Friday. At the moment the original upside targets in the high 2900s are still on the table, a full test of channel support likely cuts that to 2960ish, and a break below tells us that the high may already be in. I’d note that the first serious daily and weekly sell signals on the equity indices fixed last week, so the wind is at minimum already changing. SPX 60min chart:

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Written by:

Richard Chappell

Jack is a 20 year retail trading veteran and co-founder of The Art Of Chart. He started his blog at channelsandpatterns.net in 2010 and since has published tens of thousands of charts looking at hundreds of trading instruments across most tradeable markets, doing original work mainly in the areas of trendlines, patterns and divergences. At The Art Of Chart Jack has taught trading skills, technical analysis, and the discipline and trader psychology that allow those to be used effectively in trading.

07th Oct 2018

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