The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 714% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
The US Non-Farm Payroll report came in stronger than expected which indicates that a recession may be moderating, but commodities did not rally. The recession in the US could moderate but in the rest of the world will not. The markets are fearing that higher global rates will result in sustained headwinds internationally. Most global companies have set much lower EPS going forward. I expect the market to become more entrenched in it’s recession expectations. The S&P has yet to find a bottom and lower prices are expected into mid August to around 3600. The Grain markets are at a critical juncture. There are reduced concerns about the Soybean crop in the US due to rain in the area. The next production forecast will be important for this market. Oil is close to putting in a low in the $84-$86 area, look for a setup this week. As mentioned last week, Gold was at a decision point and looks like it may confirm the turn this week. So far so good. In Equities, no emotional bottom yet and the charts are not set up yet for a bullish turn, we are in a retracement pattern that can see 4200. Upcoming data this week from China, Germany, Italy, Britain, France and Spain could improve prospects for commodities if the numbers show inflation moderating. Remember the market is global and so are the headwinds. Weakness in equities in the first half of 2022 has played out per my comments last December. Volatility is expected to rise going forward, this week is bearish for equities.
I am eyeing a few metals trades this week. As of the next trade, I will be increasing the number of lots traded to 14 assuming $25,000 per lot as the account balance will be over $350,000. This year so far 80% winners and currently The Weekly Call is in the top 10 at Striker.com.
All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. So far we are up 50% YTD and there are a number of good tradable opportunities. Mind your risk and size with the high volatility currently present across the markets. I am now trading 14 lots given the account balance and will increase as appropriate given changes in the account balance. I am assuming $25,000 per lot as the current portfolio is over $350,000. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
1-2 – Sugar printing a small flag that should break up. Target remains the same at 21.50.
1-9 – Bull flag may be complete here and looking for a turn this week and a break up into $21.50. Retracement pattern may be compete.
1-16 – The turn may be in, and a retest of the low can still happen. Convert the declining resistance trend line and this confirms to $21.50
1-23 – The turn is confirmed and more upside is expected to higher highs. $21.50 target and gap support below.
1-30 – Retest of the broken trend line and next impulse higher is expected. $21.50 is still target.
2-6 – Nice setup here and a retest of the low with positive D on RSI – look higher this week and target is $21.50
2-13 – Nice follow through and no decision yet at the trend line. Convert the resistance trend line and we open 21.50 as next target
2-20 – Break up expected this week as USD goes lower. Convert the declining resistance trend line and we see 21.50 target next.
2-27 – Broken resistance trend line and now retesting the support trend line. This compression is about to break one way or the other. Lean is a break up and target 21.50 as discussed.
3-6 – Nice rally and on the way to target at $21.00-21.50 as discussed – support test this week and more volatility ahead.
3-13 – Flag forming on Sugar which is a continuation pattern, looking for more upside and a conversion of the resistance trend line – 21.50 still target.
3-20 – Flag is breaking up and the next advance should take hold this week. Looking for new highs into the May window.
3-27 – Nice continuation this week and the trend line should break and convert. Expecting new highs and a 5-16 high window and 21.50 target.
4-3 – A break up here is needed as we compress and go sideways. Convert the trend line and look for 21.50 next as target.
4-10 – Nice rally last week and we are creating separation from the trend line. 21.50 still target and steady as she goes.
4-17 – Nice follow through and the 5-16 window is looking good for the high. Trend line test this week and higher into target at 21.50 expected.
4-24 – Flag has printed and expecting a break up and target at 21.50. Support at $19 needs to hold.
5-1 – Sugar has a flag that is starting to break up and 21.50 expected as target. The lower rising support trend line needs to hold.
5-8 – Flag trend line starting to break up and look for follow through this week on Sugar. Should see new highs and 21.50 as target by the end of May.
5-15 – Flag now confirmed as broken up and expecting new highs and 21.50 as target.
5-22 – Nice follow through on Sugar and look for continuation higher into the 6-16 window, support at 19.20.
5-29 – A flag forming on Sugar and expecting the last legg up on this impulse to start this week. 6-16 the timing and 21.50 target as discussed.
6-5 – A flag is still forming and a higher high is still expected. Look for a break of the flag resistance trend line this week to open 21.50 as target.
6-12 – No change from last week as the flag is still forming and about to break up. Look for a conversion of the resistance trend line this week.
6-19 – No change again from last week as the flag is now fully formed and we have a small rally forming. Looking for CANE to push higher this week. New highs 21.50 expected.
6-25 – Still waiting on the channel to break up and we have now seen the full 100% fib for a three down. Looking for a turn this week and we have a bullish over throw of the base trendline.
7-3 – Flag channel printed and still waiting on the break up. Should see a decision this week as we are retesting the low. Convert resistance trend line ad look higher into $21.
7-9 – Heading to 19.60 next and oversold move last week which was news based. Convert 19.60 we see higher highs, if not we retest the low and can be in a consolidation.
7-24 – Lower into a wave C and look for the long setup. Chart is still bullish, lean long into the end of August.
7-31 – A possible reversal right from the channel trend line. Looking for a move above $18 to confirm the turn. End of August high expected, then next high is end of December.
8-7 – A possible turn and no conversion of 18 yet – once seen look for target into August 30th. The next high is in December.
1-2 – Lower lows still expected on Coffee, 210 is next then 190. Looking for a February low.
1-9 – One more legg lower expected into 210 minimum and then look for the long setup. Expecting higher highs, but lower low first.
1-16 – Coffee turning and as discussed 210 is the next step lower. Should see a push this week. An alternate to consider is a retest of the trend line and higher. I am bullish Coffee this year and the best structure for a bullish run is a lower low.
1-23 – Coffee needs to convert the rising support trend line and if seen we open 210 as target. Fail this week and we are already in the next impulse higher. Key decision this week for KC.
1-30 – Coffee making a decision here, convert the trend line and we open 210 for a great long opportunity. It is possible to go higher directly but not a high probability long.
2-6 – Coffee may be break up directly – or this can be a short term double top which will call price lower. Given where RSI is right now, I’m, waiting to see how this resolved. Break back below the trend line and we se 210 next and a nice long setup. I am hunting a long setup with the trend, avoiding the short side for now.
2-13 – Coffee has broken up into a wave B and still expecting a turn and lower prices this week with a possible target at 210.
2-20 – Coffee three down and looking for more downside into 222 then possibly 210 and then higher highs into July.
2-27 – Break of the support trend line and lower into 222 expected. Look for the next long as higher highs are expected later this year.
3-6 – Target made as discussed and we could see a lower low to set up positive D – trend is up and expecting higher highs. Look for a long setup this week.
3-13 – Same as last week, we can still see a marginal lower low to set up positive D – Turning market here, look long into 280.
3-20 – Low may be in and target was made as discussed. Next move is higher directly into 280. Looking for the trend line to convert this week.
3-27 – Low is likely in and we have broken and are converting the resistance trend line. More upside expected into 280.
4-3 – Broken flag, retesting flag trend line and now follow through to the upside expected. Middle band here needs to hold as support and $255 is the next resistance.
4-10 – Coffee finishing a 5 up structure and will likely retest 220 before seeing more upside. $255 next resistance and target is still $280.
4-17 – Coffee retesting and watch for an inverted right shoulder likely support and higher into $255 then $280.
4-24 – Coffee finding support at the trend line and higher highs expected into the 7-5 window and 280.
5-1 – Coffee flag channel is breaking up. Looking for continuation this week into the upper bollie then retest middle band to confirm support.
5-8 – New lows and we can see as much as $200 before turning. Lean is the same as weather this year is not good for Brazil production, long into $255 hen 280 still likely.
5-15 – Trend line currently resistance and expecting a break up next week and next step up is $255
5-22 – Nice follow through on KC and this week expecting higher highs to convert the resistance trend line. On the way to 255.
5-29 – Broken resistance trend line as expected and higher highs expected into 255 next.
6-5 – Coffee continuation higher expected with support at 230. 255 is next resistance with target at 280.
6-12 – Coffee forming a flag and should see a break higher this week. Still expecting 255 next.
6-19 – Coffee breaking up and looking for a 255 resistance test followed by 280. No change in forecast as long as the trend line holds.
6-26 – Coffee three down into the 100% fib here too. Watching this carefully as we have broken the base trend line and still expecting another rally.
7-3 – Nice rally last week and higher highs expected. Lean log into the end of the month.
7-9 – Break above 230 and we see higher highs and if not we ca see 185 as a retrace target. Bulls need to take the tape here.
7-24 – Nice potential turn and looking for the trend line to convert at 230 or so. Target is 270.
7-31 – Nice rally and more upside expected into 230 first the 270. 206 needs to hold as support.
8-7 – Coffee in a consolidation here which should resolve higher. Trend line resistance at 226 and a conversion confirms 270 as target.
12-26 – Live Cattle retested the low at 136.50 as discussed, looking for the rally from here. Convert the broken trend line and higher highs should ensue.
1-2 – No change in forecast. Three back and expecting the next rally into 144. Monthly pivot is expected as support.
1-9 – Trend line support and higher highs expected into 144. Needs to convert weekly pivot this week which is 138.15.
1-16 – Live Cattle now back above the trend line and a small over throw last week. Expecting 146 as target and a conversion of the monthly pivot this week.
1-23 – Live Cattle breaking up and continuation higher expected. A lot of compression forming, upper trend line converts is the confirmation for 146 as target.
1-30 – The lean is higher in Cattle, looking for 146 as next target. Compression should break up this week.
2-6 – Target made at 146. Likely we see a 4 and a 5 for a short term sell signal. Once we see the retrace, look for the next long setup into 151.
2-13 – Target made and 5 up is done, now a consolidation retest for wave X then look for next high at 151.
2-20 – Three down incomplete and expecting next legg higher after we see the retest into 144-145. Next step up is 151. Commodity inflation will continue.
2-27 – An extended expanded flat and higher highs expected. Looking for a reversal at the support trend line.
3-6 – No support and a flush last week. Higher low a buying opportunity, cycles still lean long here. Convert 137.25 and this confirms a turn. 142 will need to convert to confirm 151 next.
3-13 – Higher low and good chance to see 141-142 and a decision, convert and I confirm 151 as next target. Looking for a high in the 4-18 timing window.
3-20 – At a critical juncture, Convert the trend line we open 148 into the April window. Fail here at the trend line and the low is retested. Decision expected early this week. The lean is long.
3-27 – A 5 up structure will retest and likely head higher. 134 is critical support and if seen, we should break higher – 144-45 is the next upside target.
4-3 – Retesting monthly pivot area and breaking down after a 5 up as expected. Support at 134.87 and looking for next upside target 144-145.
4-10 – Looking for the next legg up and the 4-18 window may be early. Looking for a full three up into $142 next which may take us into the end of April.
4-17 – Lean is still long and next stop 142.50. The 4-18 window will be late, looking into month end for the next high.
4-24 – Nice follow through and Cattle on the way higher. High window of 4-18 will be late as next short term target is the trend line.
5-1 – Trend line support is being tested and it appears Feeder Cattle is ready to rally which give a clue to a Live Cattle potential rally next week.
5-8 – A small double bottom here and Feeder Cattle showing a long setup. Lean is long herer also and looking for 142.50 as the next target to the upside. Support here is $130.
5-15 – Lean here is long and Live Cattle is consolidating and with inflation and this consolidation pattern, Cattle should rally into 142 next.
5-22 – No love on Live Cattle, Positive D setup taking shape, looking for a turn later this week and a conversion of 133 which will open 142.
5-29 – Broken trend line here and more upside expected in Live Cattle. Looking for 136 this week which will confirm the turn.
6-5 – Feeder Cattle is bullish and Live Cattle should follow. Higher into 136 expected then 142 as the next major high.
6-12 – Nice bullish movement last week, expecting a conversion of the declining resistance trend line and a break higher into target at 142.
6-19 – About to break the declining resistance trend line and this will open the next target at 142.50.
6-26 – Consolidation and the lean is still higher. I will be watching the demand numbers closely this month, lean is still long into 142.
7-3 – More consolidation and lean is still long. Look for the resistance trend lie to convert ad then target is 142.
7-9 – Consolidation and a pinch which should lead to an expansion higher. Look for the upper trend lie to convert this week.
7-24 – Consolidation appears to be breaking up and the Commitment of Trader Report, the Commercials are long. Looking for follow through this week.
7-31 – Break up and retest of the trend line. Looking for more upside action this week into 146.
8-7 – Rally expected into 8-9 then into 8-30. From there look for a larger retracement then higher highs
1-2 – GC has converted 1800, looking for the trend line at 1855 next. DX has broken the middle band and must stay below middle to support metals to continue to climb short term.
1-9 – Gold has broken 1800 and will likely see 1777-1770 and the lower bollie and then rally. DC is falling and more downside with push gold higher. Gold needs to convert 1800 to confirm more upside.
1-16 – Gold should convert 1805 as support and continue higher this week, Next step up is 1840 then 1855. Trend line resistance expected on the first pass.
1-23 – Gold made the 1840 target and now headed to 1855. From there a support test and higher highs to convert the resistance trend line and the turn is confirmed.
1-30 – Gold made target at 1855 and the retrace was deeper than expected. Trend line support being tested, 1820 needs to convert to confirm the next major legg higher.
2-6 – Watching the 20-25 area for resistance and if seen we can open a legg lower into 1720-40. If it happens it will be quick and would be a great long setup. If we convert 25 then we have higher prices coming. We have been compressing in Gold for some time now, a break up is my lean for Gold longer term.
2-13 – Break up has occurred Friday and a retest into the weekly pivot likely then look higher into 2-17 for a top around 1890-1900.
2-20 – Target Made!! Almost done on this impulse, a minor higher high needed then retest into 1850-60 then higher highs expected.
2-27 – In the retracement and expecting a lower low to 60 then the next move higher to new highs. Gold will continue to be impacted by news headlines.
3-6 – No retracement to 60, news driven tape and a three wave move looks complete. Retest and support test and higher – look for 1900 as the area to buy.
3-13 – Flight to safety last week and the retracement is playing out. Support now at 1950 and this may hold and if so we see higher directly. Can still break lower, but lean is higher and this is a news and risk driven tape.
3-20 – The low is likely in and a small flag is printing which should break up. Risk is still present in the markets and inflation is still present and uncontrolled. More upside is the longer term lean.
3-27 – Gold is headed into 1980 as target and after a retest of 1950, expected higher highs. 1950 is critical support and must hold for Gold to see 2100s.
4-3 – Retest here may be done. This week looking for higher highs and more upside in Gold. Looking for daily middle Bollie to be recovered confirming more upside. There is a 30% chance we break lower into 1840 and if seen this is a clear buy.
4-10 – Gold may be breaking up and has already converted the daily middle band. Follow through this week is critically important and would like to see 1977 as next resistance. Upside expected into July and should see new highs made by then.
4-18 – Gold should retest the support trend line at 1950 and see higher highs into 2050 next. War being declared by Russia on Ukraine should push a defensive play this week into Gold.
4-24 – Gold has broken the support trend line and the lean remains bullish. We may see the 1870 area as a quick support test and if seen this is certainly a buy. Looking for 2050 next.
5-1 – Gold has made the 1870 target and has broken up and is now converting the resistance trend line. Look for next target on Gold at 2050.
5-8 – Last week the resistance trend line broke up and then failed. This occurs a low percentage of the time. Lower lows and no positive D indicate we could still see the support trend line at 1840 or we can rally directly. Lean is still long, no break in trend and expecting 2050 as next target.
5-15 – Lower lows as discussed last week and looking for a turn this week as we have made 1840 and may be heading for the channel support trend line at 1800. Positive D setup on RSI and watching for a confirmation at 1850 to confirm the reversal.
5-22 – Nice turn on Gold which is currently unconfirmed. Gold has converted 30 and is working on 50 next. Once seen look for higher highs into 2050.
5-29 – Support trend line is a must hold and higher highs expected into 2050 as long as 1830 holds as support.
6-5 – Looking for 1850 to convert and if it holds we open next major step higher into 2050. The support trend line here is a critical hold. Decision expected Monday.
6-12 – Gold breaking up and now quite through the declining resistance trend line. Expecting higher highs into the end of this month and needs to stay above 1850.
6-19 – Gold now rallying and need to hold both 30 and 50 this week as support the break the trend line at 85. Once see this confirms the next major rally.
6-26 – Gold is now closing below 30 which is a sign that we may bead lower into 1786. No decision here yet but resistance at 31 can open an impulse lower. 50/50 lean here.
7-3 – Gold has made the 100% fib target and may be turning here – convert 1830 the 1850 ad we have a confirmed trend up.
7-9 – Gold 1700 retest likely and can be the bottom, looking for a long setup this week. Still bullish Gold.
7-24 – A candidate bottom may be in as the lower low has formed positive D. Follow though required into 1800 this week. Convert and the next bullish legg has started.
7-31 – Nice rally from the low at 1700 as discussed. Now we retest and hold 1750 and a conversion of 1800 confirms the turn and higher into 1950 is next.
8-7 – All about the trend line now, a conversion and retest that holds 1770 opens much higher prices. As mentioned on 7-24, a candidate low may be in.
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Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 14 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $350,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.