Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #521. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.
U.S. Markets (Friday, August 14 Close)
S&P 500: Closed at 7,785.76, declining approximately 0.2% Friday but gaining about 0.4% for the week.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 26,729.16, falling approximately 0.3% Friday while finishing roughly 0.1% higher for the week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 53,732.41, declining approximately 0.2% Friday and about 0.6% for the week.
U.S. equities finished slightly lower Friday after the S&P 500 reached another record high earlier in the week.
The market received encouraging inflation news, with both consumer and producer inflation readings coming in softer than feared. That substantially reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in September.
However, weaker economic data introduced a different concern. July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, while consumer sentiment weakened, raising questions about whether softer employment conditions are beginning to affect household spending.
Artificial intelligence remained the most important structural market theme, although Applied Materials demonstrated how high expectations have become. The company delivered solid results and guidance, but shares declined sharply because investors had already priced in extremely strong AI-related demand.
Global Markets
FTSE 100 (United Kingdom): Closed at 10,750.11, declining approximately 0.2% Friday and recording its first weekly loss in five weeks.
DAX (Germany): Finished near 26,000, rising approximately 0.6% Friday as technology and software stocks offset weakness in mining and commodity-related shares.
Nikkei 225 (Japan): Closed near 68,714, finishing another strong week as Japanese technology and financial shares benefited from improving global risk sentiment.
Shanghai Composite (China): Closed near 3,927, remaining relatively stable as investors continued balancing government stimulus expectations against persistent weakness in property and domestic consumption.
European markets remained resilient despite renewed energy-price pressure. Technology and software shares performed well, while mining stocks weakened as copper prices pulled back.
Japan remained one of the strongest major international equity markets, although expectations for future Bank of Japan tightening are likely to increase volatility.
Commodities Snapshot (Friday Close)
Gold: Approximately $4,380/oz, gaining about 0.7% Friday and approximately 0.9% for the week.
Silver: Approximately $64.99/oz, rising modestly Friday and gaining approximately 2.6% for the week.
Copper: Approximately $6.50–$6.60/lb, retreating modestly late in the week but remaining historically elevated.
WTI Crude Oil: Settled at $82.40/barrel, rising approximately 1.4% Friday and 5.4% for the week.
Brent Crude Oil: Settled at $88.52/barrel, gaining approximately 1.7% Friday and 6.0% for the week.
Natural Gas: Approximately $2.65–$2.70/MMBtu, remaining under pressure as strong U.S. production continued to outweigh summer demand.
Oil again became one of the market’s most important variables. Renewed tanker attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz, stalled negotiations with Iran, and continued U.S. naval pressure pushed crude sharply higher during the week.
Gold and silver benefited from lower expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, while copper remained supported by long-term demand from electrification, grid modernization, manufacturing, and data centers.
Cryptocurrency Market (Early Sunday, August 16)
Bitcoin (BTC): Approximately $63,032, remaining near important support after failing to sustain last week’s rally above $65,000.
Ethereum (ETH): Approximately $1,625, remaining significantly weaker than Bitcoin.
Solana (SOL): Approximately $77.97, consolidating near recent lows.
XRP: Approximately $1.059, holding near an important technical support zone.
BNB: Approximately $607.47, continuing to demonstrate better relative strength than most other large-cap altcoins.
Cardano (ADA): Approximately $0.1763, weakening during weekend trading.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Approximately $0.0699, remaining subdued as speculative retail participation stayed limited.
Crypto again failed to participate meaningfully in the strength of U.S. equities.
Bitcoin remains the strongest institutional digital asset but has been unable to establish a sustained breakout. Ethereum and most major altcoins continue to struggle with limited liquidity, weak market breadth, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. regulation.
Key Market Drivers
- Inflation data improved. Softer consumer and producer inflation reduced the immediate probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
- The Federal Reserve is increasingly expected to hold rates steady in September. Markets entered the weekend pricing approximately a two-thirds probability of no change.
- Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%. The first monthly decline in several months raised concerns that consumers may finally be responding to slower employment growth and higher living costs.
- Consumer sentiment weakened. Household confidence remains pressured by higher gasoline prices, persistent inflation, and uncertainty surrounding employment.
- Treasury yields remained elevated. The 10-year yield ended near 4.7%, continuing to place pressure on highly valued growth companies.
- Oil rose sharply. Renewed attacks on tankers and stalled negotiations with Iran restored the geopolitical premium to crude markets.
- Corporate earnings remained exceptionally strong. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth remained well above historical norms, led heavily by Microsoft, Amazon, and other AI-related businesses.
- AI valuations remain demanding. Applied Materials declined despite strong operating results because investors expected even more aggressive growth.
- Reddit surged after being selected for the S&P 500. Index inclusion created significant anticipated demand from passive investment funds.
The macro story has changed. Investors are now balancing weaker inflation against weaker economic activity. Lower inflation supports equities, but slowing employment and consumer spending could eventually create concerns about economic growth.
Emerging Crypto Projects & Ecosystem News
- The CLARITY Act was pushed into September. The Senate entered its August recess without completing the anticipated vote, reducing the probability of passage before year-end.
- September 15 is now the key date. Senate leadership has scheduled a procedural vote that will require 60 votes to advance the legislation.
- The bill faces significant hurdles. Stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering requirements, ethics provisions, and competition with traditional banks remain unresolved issues.
- Tokenized equities remain one of the strongest institutional blockchain opportunities. Financial institutions continue preparing blockchain-based versions of stocks that could support longer trading hours and faster settlement.
- Stablecoins continue moving into mainstream finance. Banks, payment companies, asset managers, and crypto firms are building custody, treasury-management, payment, and settlement infrastructure around regulated digital dollars.
- Tokenized money-market funds and Treasury securities continue expanding. These products increasingly represent the bridge between traditional finance and blockchain settlement.
- Real-world asset tokenization remains a major growth area. Private credit, government securities, commodities, real estate, equities, and investment funds continue migrating toward blockchain infrastructure.
- Chainlink and interoperability infrastructure remain strategically important. Cross-chain communication, reliable pricing, proof-of-reserves, and settlement technology will become increasingly important as institutions operate across multiple networks.
- Institutional custody remains a key investment theme. Secure custody, compliance, transaction monitoring, and operational controls are becoming essential parts of the digital-asset ecosystem.
The strongest digital-asset themes remain regulated stablecoins, tokenized securities, real-world assets, institutional custody, settlement infrastructure, and blockchain interoperability rather than speculative token issuance.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
- Federal Reserve minutes: Investors will analyze the July FOMC minutes for evidence of how divided policymakers remain regarding inflation and future rate increases.
- Jackson Hole: Markets will begin positioning for the annual Federal Reserve symposium, where policymakers may provide important guidance on the rate outlook.
- Economic growth: Investors will closely monitor whether weaker retail sales represent a temporary decline or evidence of broader consumer deterioration.
- Treasury yields: The 10-year yield remains one of the most important valuation variables for technology and growth shares.
- Artificial intelligence: Investors will continue demanding measurable revenue, margins, and cash-flow returns from AI capital spending.
- Nvidia: The approaching earnings report will become the next major test of semiconductor demand and the broader AI investment cycle.
- Oil and geopolitics: Developments involving Iran, tanker traffic, and the Strait of Hormuz remain capable of rapidly changing inflation expectations.
- Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ETF flows, stablecoin adoption, tokenization activity, and the September CLARITY Act vote remain the primary institutional catalysts.
Key Levels to Watch
S&P 500: Support 7,700–7,725 | Resistance 7,800–7,850
Nasdaq Composite: Support 26,400–26,500 | Resistance 26,900–27,000
Bitcoin: Support $62,000–$63,000 | Resistance $64,500–$66,000
Ethereum: Support $1,575–$1,600 | Resistance $1,700–$1,750
Solana: Support $74–$76 | Resistance $82–$85
Gold: Support $4,300 | Resistance $4,450
WTI Crude Oil: Support $80 | Resistance $85–$87
As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.
Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
Coffee
Live Cattle
Gold (GC)
Come see what we are trading – Try our 30 day FREE trial – Click Here
COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
16th Aug 2026
