The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 763% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
CPI numbers last week came in 7.7% Y on Y verses 7.9% which is slightly less than expected. The market has rallied and all eyes are on FOMC, the market thinks that their policies are effective but it is WAY TOO EARLY to make this decision. FOMC usually requires three months of reduction in CPI and other indicators before they consider reducing their aggressive approach as in the past when they have relaxed interest rate hikes early, it prolongs inflation. We need to see December and January CPI relax in order for FOMC to slow down their current policy. Expect another 75 basis point hike in December and likely January. Despite the Fed’s actions, inflation will PERSIST as there are other factors which will force inflation higher despite the current policy. The biggest contributors to inflation in the next quarter will be Oil prices, higher wages, supply chain issues which still persist, the war in Ukraine, aggressive price management by OPEC, and elevated food and grain prices. The Fed can not control inflation directly, they can only influence it so expect higher inflation through the end of Q1 and with it lower stock prices. Last week we saw a big drop in the USD as a result of CPI and a nice rally in Oil. Our Gold position I have taken off the first legg for a 369% profit. This year a 60% profit YTD and 763% profit since inception. I am a hold on the last legg as I am still expecting higher prices into 1900. Banks are accumulating Gold at a record pace around the world so I am expecting prices to continue higher. Given the rally in the S&P, this is a bear market rally and the low will eventually get retested. I am still expected 3350 next. More volatility ahead, year end is going to be rocky, expect higher volatility going forward.
We are long Gold 1/2 size current;y. So far this year I am in profit 60% and expect this to continue. As of this Gold trade, I have increased the number of lots traded to 14 assuming $25,000 per lot as the account balance is over $350,000. This year so far 80% winners and currently The Weekly Call is in the top 10 at Striker.com.
All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. So far we are up 50% YTD and there are a number of good tradable opportunities. Mind your risk and size with the high volatility currently present across the markets. I am now trading 14 lots given the account balance and will increase as appropriate given changes in the account balance. I am assuming $25,000 per lot as the current portfolio is over $350,000. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
5-1 – Sugar has a flag that is starting to break up and 21.50 expected as target. The lower rising support trend line needs to hold.
5-8 – Flag trend line starting to break up and look for follow through this week on Sugar. Should see new highs and 21.50 as target by the end of May.
5-15 – Flag now confirmed as broken up and expecting new highs and 21.50 as target.
5-22 – Nice follow through on Sugar and look for continuation higher into the 6-16 window, support at 19.20.
5-29 – A flag forming on Sugar and expecting the last legg up on this impulse to start this week. 6-16 the timing and 21.50 target as discussed.
6-5 – A flag is still forming and a higher high is still expected. Look for a break of the flag resistance trend line this week to open 21.50 as target.
6-12 – No change from last week as the flag is still forming and about to break up. Look for a conversion of the resistance trend line this week.
6-19 – No change again from last week as the flag is now fully formed and we have a small rally forming. Looking for CANE to push higher this week. New highs 21.50 expected.
6-25 – Still waiting on the channel to break up and we have now seen the full 100% fib for a three down. Looking for a turn this week and we have a bullish over throw of the base trendline.
7-3 – Flag channel printed and still waiting on the break up. Should see a decision this week as we are retesting the low. Convert resistance trend line ad look higher into $21.
7-9 – Heading to 19.60 next and oversold move last week which was news based. Convert 19.60 we see higher highs, if not we retest the low and can be in a consolidation.
7-24 – Lower into a wave C and look for the long setup. Chart is still bullish, lean long into the end of August.
7-31 – A possible reversal right from the channel trend line. Looking for a move above $18 to confirm the turn. End of August high expected, then next high is end of December.
8-7 – A possible turn and no conversion of 18 yet – once seen look for target into August 30th. The next high is in December.
8-21 – Sugar has made significant progress and is now testing support at the trend line which needs to hold. Higher expected into $20-21 still expected. Weather issues still impacting supply in Brazil.
8-28 – More upside last week and follow through expected this week. Look for the 9-21 window and a break of the resistance trend line to confirm.
9-4 – Forecast is the same, more upside is expected in Sugar and the 9-21 window is approaching. Still expected $20-21.
9-11 – Consolidation continues and more upside is still expected in a thrust. Looking for $20-21 next.
9-18 – Consolidation continues and not any change since last week, Expecting an upside break and still expecting the $20-21 area.
9-25 – Consolidation continued and pressure building, looking for a thrust higher this week. No change in forecast.
10-2 – More compression with Sugar and be patient waiting on the pop higher into $19 next. Should see a conversion of the trend line.
10-9 – Has made target into the high window as discussed, pull back into broken trend line and higher highs expected into 20.50-21.00.
10-16 – Waiting on the pull back as RSI shows Neg D here. Once seen look for next step up into 20.50 or so. 18.20 retest target.
10-23 – Retest almost complete and looking for the broken trend line to get tested. Lean is higher into 20.50.
10-30 – Retest deeper than expected and no change in forecast as we are retesting the broken trend line. Lean is still long into 20.50.
11-6 – Converted the broken trend line and nice rally – we are confirmed into 20.50 next.
11-13 – Nice follow through, support at $19 and higher highs into 20.50 expected.
Coffee
4-3 – Broken flag, retesting flag trend line and now follow through to the upside expected. Middle band here needs to hold as support and $255 is the next resistance.
4-10 – Coffee finishing a 5 up structure and will likely retest 220 before seeing more upside. $255 next resistance and target is still $280.
4-17 – Coffee retesting and watch for an inverted right shoulder likely support and higher into $255 then $280.
4-24 – Coffee finding support at the trend line and higher highs expected into the 7-5 window and 280.
5-1 – Coffee flag channel is breaking up. Looking for continuation this week into the upper bollie then retest middle band to confirm support.
5-8 – New lows and we can see as much as $200 before turning. Lean is the same as weather this year is not good for Brazil production, long into $255 hen 280 still likely.
5-15 – Trend line currently resistance and expecting a break up next week and next step up is $255
5-22 – Nice follow through on KC and this week expecting higher highs to convert the resistance trend line. On the way to 255.
5-29 – Broken resistance trend line as expected and higher highs expected into 255 next.
6-5 – Coffee continuation higher expected with support at 230. 255 is next resistance with target at 280.
6-12 – Coffee forming a flag and should see a break higher this week. Still expecting 255 next.
6-19 – Coffee breaking up and looking for a 255 resistance test followed by 280. No change in forecast as long as the trend line holds.
6-26 – Coffee three down into the 100% fib here too. Watching this carefully as we have broken the base trend line and still expecting another rally.
7-3 – Nice rally last week and higher highs expected. Lean log into the end of the month.
7-9 – Break above 230 and we see higher highs and if not we ca see 185 as a retrace target. Bulls need to take the tape here.
7-24 – Nice potential turn and looking for the trend line to convert at 230 or so. Target is 270.
7-31 – Nice rally and more upside expected into 230 first the 270. 206 needs to hold as support.
8-7 – Coffee in a consolidation here which should resolve higher. Trend line resistance at 226 and a conversion confirms 270 as target.
8-21 – Coffee retesting support with a simple flag which should break up this week. Looking for the resistance trend line to convert and higher highs into 270.
8-28 – Nice follow through on Coffee. Retest this week and higher into target expected into 10-19
9-4 – Retest in Coffee as expected and higher highs into 10-19 still expected, so far so good.
9-11 – Retest in Coffee may be done, looking for a conversion of middle band and higher highs into the cycle date of 10-19
9-18 – Three down flag and looking for this structure to break up in Coffee. Bull flag targets 260 by 10-19
9-25 – Converting the resistance trend line and looking for the next major legg higher. Trouble with weather and crop in Brazil, should push prices higher.
10-2 – Converting the resistance trend line and 260 is the next target to the upside into the October high window.
10-9 – Flag converting and higher highs expected into 260 – look for the high window next.
10-16 – Three down and a very clear wave C – still bullish and a bullish overthrow of the channel trend line. 250-260 still expected into December.
10-23 – Oversold here and still and wave C and a double bottom. Decent long setup here with positive D on RSI. Needs to recover 209 to see target into 250 into December, if now we can see lower.
10-30 – Oversold here and wave C overdone!! Convert 184 and we see a rally as the short bus is very full. Resistance at 209.
11-6 – Oversold and a double bottom setup and looking for a test of 184 and if converted this confirms the next rally.
11-13 – Oversold and about to bounce and convert middle band. COT Commercials are long here, Pos D on RSI, looking for a year end rally.
Live Cattle
4-10 – Looking for the next legg up and the 4-18 window may be early. Looking for a full three up into $142 next which may take us into the end of April.
4-17 – Lean is still long and next stop 142.50. The 4-18 window will be late, looking into month end for the next high.
4-24 – Nice follow through and Cattle on the way higher. High window of 4-18 will be late as next short term target is the trend line.
5-1 – Trend line support is being tested and it appears Feeder Cattle is ready to rally which give a clue to a Live Cattle potential rally next week.
5-8 – A small double bottom here and Feeder Cattle showing a long setup. Lean is long herer also and looking for 142.50 as the next target to the upside. Support here is $130.
5-15 – Lean here is long and Live Cattle is consolidating and with inflation and this consolidation pattern, Cattle should rally into 142 next.
5-22 – No love on Live Cattle, Positive D setup taking shape, looking for a turn later this week and a conversion of 133 which will open 142.
5-29 – Broken trend line here and more upside expected in Live Cattle. Looking for 136 this week which will confirm the turn.
6-5 – Feeder Cattle is bullish and Live Cattle should follow. Higher into 136 expected then 142 as the next major high.
6-12 – Nice bullish movement last week, expecting a conversion of the declining resistance trend line and a break higher into target at 142.
6-19 – About to break the declining resistance trend line and this will open the next target at 142.50.
6-26 – Consolidation and the lean is still higher. I will be watching the demand numbers closely this month, lean is still long into 142.
7-3 – More consolidation and lean is still long. Look for the resistance trend lie to convert ad then target is 142.
7-9 – Consolidation and a pinch which should lead to an expansion higher. Look for the upper trend lie to convert this week.
7-24 – Consolidation appears to be breaking up and the Commitment of Trader Report, the Commercials are long. Looking for follow through this week.
7-31 – Break up and retest of the trend line. Looking for more upside action this week into 146.
8-7 – Rally expected into 8-9 then into 8-30. From there look for a larger retracement then higher highs
8-21 – Live Cattle following Feeder Cattle and should see target at 146 easily. Could see higher highs into 148 by the cycle date
8-28 – Retest and support trend line test. We are at the end of the line for Feed Cattle in terms of the timing window. Looking for a last push higher this week.
9-4 – Rally and the flag has broken up, looking for a higher high and then a full retest and consolidation before we see higher highs.
9-11 – Higher high completes the structure and look for a retest of previous degree wave 4 then higher highs.
9-18 – Live Cattle rally still expected to complete a wave 5, then retest to 144 support and higher highs expected.
9-25 – Made the new high and now in the retest. Looking for 147 to be support and still expected higher into next year.
10-2 – Live Cattle overthrowing the trend line and putting in a wave X – more upside still expected and may see another $1 or so of downside first.
10-9 – Live Cattle Q4 we should see a drop in production so looking for higher highs. Flag broken up and support trend line should hold.
10-16 – Live Cattle lean is long into Q4 as discussed. 12-2 high window and current consolidation should break higher into upper band.
10-23 – As mentioned, Q4 drop in production and a nice pop in Live Cattle. Retest expected this week and higher into December.
10-30 – Nice rally and Q4 production dropping and more upside into early December expected. 156-158 target.
11-6 – Retest here and support at monthly pivot and flag broken to the upside, 12-2 next target window 156-58.
11-13 – consolidation and looking for the rest of this legg higher into December to 156-58 expected.
Gold
1-2 – GC has converted 1800, looking for the trend line at 1855 next. DX has broken the middle band and must stay below middle to support metals to continue to climb short term.
1-9 – Gold has broken 1800 and will likely see 1777-1770 and the lower bollie and then rally. DC is falling and more downside with push gold higher. Gold needs to convert 1800 to confirm more upside.
1-16 – Gold should convert 1805 as support and continue higher this week, Next step up is 1840 then 1855. Trend line resistance expected on the first pass.
1-23 – Gold made the 1840 target and now headed to 1855. From there a support test and higher highs to convert the resistance trend line and the turn is confirmed.
1-30 – Gold made target at 1855 and the retrace was deeper than expected. Trend line support being tested, 1820 needs to convert to confirm the next major legg higher.
2-6 – Watching the 20-25 area for resistance and if seen we can open a legg lower into 1720-40. If it happens it will be quick and would be a great long setup. If we convert 25 then we have higher prices coming. We have been compressing in Gold for some time now, a break up is my lean for Gold longer term.
2-13 – Break up has occurred Friday and a retest into the weekly pivot likely then look higher into 2-17 for a top around 1890-1900.
2-20 – Target Made!! Almost done on this impulse, a minor higher high needed then retest into 1850-60 then higher highs expected.
2-27 – In the retracement and expecting a lower low to 60 then the next move higher to new highs. Gold will continue to be impacted by news headlines.
3-6 – No retracement to 60, news driven tape and a three wave move looks complete. Retest and support test and higher – look for 1900 as the area to buy.
3-13 – Flight to safety last week and the retracement is playing out. Support now at 1950 and this may hold and if so we see higher directly. Can still break lower, but lean is higher and this is a news and risk driven tape.
3-20 – The low is likely in and a small flag is printing which should break up. Risk is still present in the markets and inflation is still present and uncontrolled. More upside is the longer term lean.
3-27 – Gold is headed into 1980 as target and after a retest of 1950, expected higher highs. 1950 is critical support and must hold for Gold to see 2100s.
4-3 – Retest here may be done. This week looking for higher highs and more upside in Gold. Looking for daily middle Bollie to be recovered confirming more upside. There is a 30% chance we break lower into 1840 and if seen this is a clear buy.
4-10 – Gold may be breaking up and has already converted the daily middle band. Follow through this week is critically important and would like to see 1977 as next resistance. Upside expected into July and should see new highs made by then.
4-18 – Gold should retest the support trend line at 1950 and see higher highs into 2050 next. War being declared by Russia on Ukraine should push a defensive play this week into Gold.
4-24 – Gold has broken the support trend line and the lean remains bullish. We may see the 1870 area as a quick support test and if seen this is certainly a buy. Looking for 2050 next.
5-1 – Gold has made the 1870 target and has broken up and is now converting the resistance trend line. Look for next target on Gold at 2050.
5-8 – Last week the resistance trend line broke up and then failed. This occurs a low percentage of the time. Lower lows and no positive D indicate we could still see the support trend line at 1840 or we can rally directly. Lean is still long, no break in trend and expecting 2050 as next target.
5-15 – Lower lows as discussed last week and looking for a turn this week as we have made 1840 and may be heading for the channel support trend line at 1800. Positive D setup on RSI and watching for a confirmation at 1850 to confirm the reversal.
5-22 – Nice turn on Gold which is currently unconfirmed. Gold has converted 30 and is working on 50 next. Once seen look for higher highs into 2050.
5-29 – Support trend line is a must hold and higher highs expected into 2050 as long as 1830 holds as support.
6-5 – Looking for 1850 to convert and if it holds we open next major step higher into 2050. The support trend line here is a critical hold. Decision expected Monday.
6-12 – Gold breaking up and now quite through the declining resistance trend line. Expecting higher highs into the end of this month and needs to stay above 1850.
6-19 – Gold now rallying and need to hold both 30 and 50 this week as support the break the trend line at 85. Once see this confirms the next major rally.
6-26 – Gold is now closing below 30 which is a sign that we may bead lower into 1786. No decision here yet but resistance at 31 can open an impulse lower. 50/50 lean here.
7-3 – Gold has made the 100% fib target and may be turning here – convert 1830 the 1850 ad we have a confirmed trend up.
7-9 – Gold 1700 retest likely and can be the bottom, looking for a long setup this week. Still bullish Gold.
7-24 – A candidate bottom may be in as the lower low has formed positive D. Follow though required into 1800 this week. Convert and the next bullish legg has started.
7-31 – Nice rally from the low at 1700 as discussed. Now we retest and hold 1750 and a conversion of 1800 confirms the turn and higher into 1950 is next.
8-7 – All about the trend line now, a conversion and retest that holds 1770 opens much higher prices. As mentioned on 7-24, a candidate low may be in.
8-21 – Gold made target at 1820 and has pulled back as expected into 1770 and then some. Looking for a USD drop this week and a sustained rally through 1800.
8-28 – No rally yet on Gold and a retest of the low is possible. Given the Jackson Hole speech, Gold will become attractive and higher highs are expected. Look for the turn this week.
9-4 – Full retest of the low and Gold is a gift at these levels, next high window is in December and just buy some for a longer term hold. Looking for a confirmation of a turn above 1750 this week.
9-11 – Metals are turning, Commitment of Trader reports shows Commercials are long, seasonal trend is up. We may see a lower low, this market is turning.
9-18 – Lower low here while Silver is breaking up. This is a good area to buy a longer dated position into January. Looking for a confirmation above 1730 this week.
9-25 – Lower low here and the lean is still long. Silver a higher low which is in the support area. Looking for a reversal and we are long now as of last week.
10-2 – Gold, nice rally given the USD drop and continuation expected to convert the 1700 area to confirm the run higher to 1900. We are holding long here.
10-9 – Follow through always a nice confirmation. Retesting broken trend line and higher highs expected next.
10-16 – Have retested the broken trend line and then some. DX rally as pressed Gold lower. Long is still the lean into December. Positive D on RSI and looking for a turn this week.
10-23 – Looking for Gold to rally this week as we have a broken flag and higher highs expected. Convert 1670 and we have a confirmation for 1900
10-30 – Consolidation and 1670 still the level to convert. Once seen then a break of 1700 signals we are open to 1900.
11-6 – Nice rally as USD falls apart. Banks buying gold at a record rate, expecting a conversion of 1700 which opens 1900 as next target by year end.
11-13 – Nice rally and overdone, 1736 support and higher highs into 1900 in December still the plan. Have taken off one legg of current trade in profit.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 14 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $350,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
13th Nov 2022
