Below is the Wednesday Update and it covers SPX, RUT, ES, Oil, USD, and Gold. Am on holiday this week but back on Sunday for Chart Chat. Updates three days a week next week as usual. Sorry the post is late today, network issues. Covered a few points on ATR in the video and using it to trade. Will do a more complete video on risk management over the weekend.
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Have a GREAT weekend!!! 🙂
26th Aug 2015
The counts get complicated for me: (lead poisoning when I was a kid, I think) ……. For a while it was implied , by a lot of EWers , that we where still in PW3 but it has changed (or now confirmed) that PW3 ended in May ,which I thought. No idea what the May to Aug activity has been about; Absent T ism of major traders on vacation? In my minimalist broad stroke interpretation this looks like the 1ST wave down of PW4 of an ABC? And that new high may be played out in wave B if we get a flat ……. Betting a PW5 will be forced to happen because of the 4 year presidential cycle 2016
We don’t know which cycle we are correcting – 2011 or 2009? 1820’s nice area for P4 to end if we are in P4. Monthly chart and resistance at 2138 means we may be correcting the 2009 cycle. Will discuss Sunday.
Thanks for the update Stan! We still have a couple of hours to go before SPX cash opens, though overnight Europe not looking too panicky and DX and ES not cooperating so far, 65 pts off the overnight low on ES and DX at 94.61 seems to be favoring the double-bottom SPX scenario so far (although I guess I could have said the same thing yesterday up until about 3pm 🙂 ). Is the target for a bounce the same for the double-bottom alternate scenario as it is for the 1820’s V-bottom scenario? Hope you got to sneak some actual vacation into your vacation time this past couple of weeks.
watch 1933 resistnace
Thanks for sharing your work and perspective….Enjoy your vacation!
V day today but no V bottom – finished the day with a 5 up formation – into w3 here, backtest 22-23 then higher to 67’s or so – may be an area for w4 C – Tell will be this evening and if 22’s are support
Hi Stan,
ES has hit a high of 1964.50 in AH trading. Do you see any possibility of another major downturn back to 1830ish level or is this the upturn back to 2040?
Thanks
Kurt
Morning post: 5 up structure mentioned yesterday close to done es 67-71’s – big drop coming – DX in turn area also, both should fall together, gold/silver bounce coming too – turn day today
Alternate – Invalidation the above at spx 75 – if this continues higher we will be setting up a perfect retest of 2022-2030. if this is seen we are setting up a sideways market for 6 months and a good structure for a trip to 1400 over the next two years – The previous view above views current structure as primary 4 and correcting the cycle from 2011 – the alternate views the current structure as correcting the cycle from 2009
Stan, If I understood you correctly SPX close above 1975 would trigger the alternative view of correcting the cycle from the 2009 lows instead of the cycle from the 2011 lows. Is that correct? Does that mean you now favor the larger cycle alternative rather than the smaller one since the SPX closed at 1987.66 today?