Today’s update focuses on SPX, RUT, USD and Oil. I covered in today’s video the first except on using time based analysis in trading. Time based analysis is the most undervalued and misunderstood aspect of TA in my opinion and we will be covering more of this in the future.
SPX – Be aware that I will be making posts intraday on these updates in the comments section. On the Wednesday Update, we called 65-70 as resistance and the formation of a triangle on ES. Both played out beautifully. More easily seen on ES, we have a clear ABCDE which completed yesterday and are now seeing a trust out of the triangle. Bulls are in must perform mode. Watch for resistance at ES 68’s – a fail there means we may see another test of the bottom of the range then 34’s next. I am expecting 68’s to be broken and see higher prices back to test the monthly pivot.
RUT – Setting up nicely for a flat – A-B-12345 which is a reversal structure to 1263 and the monthly pivot.
CL – Finishing a flat with the possibility of a marginal new high before we see lower prices and 49’s for a significant turn. Watch the Pit open thi morning for clues.
DX – Testing a key pivot this morning and we may not have finished wave C of the triangle – so higher prices in store if support at the pivot holds. If we break support, look to complete wave D at 94.20’s.
A question was asked about the cloudiness of the video – they are all HD quality and you must make sure in the bottom right corner of the viewer that the HD button in on. It also takes Vimeo a few minutes to covert the video to HD after I post it.
Have a GREAT WEEKEND. 🙂
10th Jul 2015
great call on the US$. sandy
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Very interesting , Love the time box: Question I am trying to redraw the HR chart on StockCharts and the candles are different, Can you think of any reason that they would not be the same? Maybe you are all season ? TIA , great stuff
careful john that the time bars are the same distance – some chart packages the bars to the right of current time not the same – not familiar with stock charts software
Very much thanks for video updates. Which region would SPX target if it fails at 2,083/5 resistance area? 2,050ish back test?
YW Aslan – A quick answer to your question – I don’t like to guess at retracements. My skill and background is around forecasting impulsive moves, their duration and timing. As such, I concern myself with only that – a backtest is just that – a backtest of support. Not something I trade as I concern myself as a swing trader to capturing the trend short and medium term. If you are day trading the emini, go for it in trading both directions. Day trading is different in that way. Once we see 83’s – if I have a perspective – I’ll offer it, but routinely the question you ask is difficult to answer with a 70% win rate. Lets see what happens next week as we will have more information – after the Sunday open which will be interesting.
Well it didn’t take long for the SPX to blow thru 2068 to ~2076 this morning. So it looks like some back-testing and then higher, into next week I think is forecast. I’m really interested in the “turn” you mentioned. When (next week?) and to what possible lower levels. The news is mentioning Greece and China as catalysts this am. On Sunday the EU should now probably approve a new Greek bailout and next week 2Q earnings really begin. Should be an interesting time period.
Thanks much for the videos Stan. They are very informative and helpful as well as spot on so far! I’ll be watching for any intra-day updates. 🙂
I think it was 2068 on the futures (e mini) As I post it is 2063 http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures
Back test of triangle breakout trendline 62-63 – if support then higher prices, if break then we revisit lower range – inflection point here
Lost on a day like today Something at 2070 area http://screencast.com/t/nE5FeyfNlrCC
Retest of 68 on the e minies now Head fake or fail?????
Planning to go short at around 2,083/5..
2,083/85 SPX..
We are still swaying above & below 2068 on the e minies ……..very irritating
Great call Stan , currently stuck on a fibo : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p79781216200&a=412023953
So far so good, monthly pivot in site – first pass fade expected then a retest and possible break higher to 95-2100.
Retest around 2,060ish and then break higher to 95-2100?
Thanks Stan. So far things playing out the way you’ve predicted in your vids this week. I know you mentioned you let price tell you where the market is going. But, how high do you think the SPX can go before the “turn” you mentioned. (I think you’re suggesting a new downtrend?) New highs maybe? It could be really dangerous to short this market too early.
Thanks for the vids this week Stan. Wild week. After viewing the vid again I think the “turn” mentioned may be from a failed rally where you expect a “low” next week and then a turn from the current patterns, to a new uptrend/pattern. You mentioned a vid this weekend so I’ll watch to see for more info there. Have a great weekend all! 🙂
Failed rally = a really good definition of a “B” wave. Otherwise known as a suckers bet. We will know when we are there as I am sure others will be calling for new highs – thanks for the posts Mike, cya next week. 🙂
Glancing at news , blogs and twits , sentiment seems to be turning positive although the 2083 target hit and down turning indicators suggest the playout of the back test scenario http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p46845485511&a=412023953
Members Thoughts ?
Other lines that look vaguely in play http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=19&id=p32981845846&a=415665724
Now the question is if SPX will keep moving up breaking 2,083/85 at first test or a back test scenario is in play. If the second scenario is in play what could be the target of back test move down? After Friday’ s action up, I don’ t think SPX would drop hard..
Greek news doesn’t look positive as of Sat night. If no deal materializes Sunday, markets will be down big.
Not looking that positive Sunday afternoon either. I’m surprised but this is why I didn’t hold any longs over the weekend.
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