The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 843% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
Retail numbers for December were lower, down 1.1% which was a surprise. This has increased recession fears even with inflation data now softening. Housing market “reset is occurring with some home builders seeing a cancellation of contracts as high as 68% according to Fortune. These are signs that a recession is already in progress. China is showing a clear economic contraction and more COVID infections should occur post New Year. Economic numbers may be moderating in the US, but Oil is increasing in price which may be supporting in the second half of the year another bump higher in inflation. Given the mixed market, mixed economic views and mixed commodity demand expectations, 2023 is going to be a traders market. In my January 1st post, I mentioned the themes for 2023, look for these to play out. Our Crude Oil long, we have taken the first legg off in profit. Expecting a retrace this week then higher highs. Gold looking for a pull back and DX indicates a rally about to occur short term. Still bullish Gold after a pull back this week. Soybeans and Corn show a tighter supply than expected and Argentina going to under produce – look long here. On SPX, topping out here and 3620 is the next target to the downside. More volatility ahead in 2023, looking forward to another great year of trading and investing!!!
We have close the first profit of 2023 with the first legg off on Oil for a nice profit!!! We have closed the Gold trade in December for a nice profit, a 444% return!!! I have increased the number of lots traded to 16 assuming $25,000 per lot as the account balance is over $400,000. In 2022, 83% winners and currently The Weekly Call is in the top 10 at Striker.com. We are currently long Crude Oil and Natural Gas.
All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. Mind your risk and size with the high volatility currently present across the markets. I am now trading 15 lots given the account balance and will increase as appropriate given changes in the account balance. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
9-4 – Forecast is the same, more upside is expected in Sugar and the 9-21 window is approaching. Still expected $20-21.
9-11 – Consolidation continues and more upside is still expected in a thrust. Looking for $20-21 next.
9-18 – Consolidation continues and not any change since last week, Expecting an upside break and still expecting the $20-21 area.
9-25 – Consolidation continued and pressure building, looking for a thrust higher this week. No change in forecast.
10-2 – More compression with Sugar and be patient waiting on the pop higher into $19 next. Should see a conversion of the trend line.
10-9 – Has made target into the high window as discussed, pull back into broken trend line and higher highs expected into 20.50-21.00.
10-16 – Waiting on the pull back as RSI shows Neg D here. Once seen look for next step up into 20.50 or so. 18.20 retest target.
10-23 – Retest almost complete and looking for the broken trend line to get tested. Lean is higher into 20.50.
10-30 – Retest deeper than expected and no change in forecast as we are retesting the broken trend line. Lean is still long into 20.50.
11-6 – Converted the broken trend line and nice rally – we are confirmed into 20.50 next.
11-13 – Nice follow through, support at $19 and higher highs into 20.50 expected.
11-20 – Retest into 19.50 and looking for a higher high once seen. $22 is the next target.
11-27 – Retest now quite done yet, made target but RSI is not where it needs to be, 19-19.20 the zone to watch for a reversal.
12-3 – Lean is long here as the retest appears to be done. Next week we should see higher highs here and next target is 21.50.
12-11 – Volatility this week and USD falling should see SB go higher, still targeting 21.50.
12-18 – Nice break up and continuation should follow, 21.50 next target.
12-25 – Sugar is approaching target and we may see it in early 2023!! Look for a $19 support test when 21.50 is seen.
1-1-23 – No change in forecast here, weather still a driving force with La Nina, 21.50 last legg up expected before seeing $19.
1-8 – The turn is in and look for the trend line next as support. Higher highs are coming to 22.50 once the retest completes.
1-15 – So far so good, no change in forecast. 18.50 next the higher highs to 22.50.
Coffee
9-4 – Retest in Coffee as expected and higher highs into 10-19 still expected, so far so good.
9-11 – Retest in Coffee may be done, looking for a conversion of middle band and higher highs into the cycle date of 10-19
9-18 – Three down flag and looking for this structure to break up in Coffee. Bull flag targets 260 by 10-19
9-25 – Converting the resistance trend line and looking for the next major legg higher. Trouble with weather and crop in Brazil, should push prices higher.
10-2 – Converting the resistance trend line and 260 is the next target to the upside into the October high window.
10-9 – Flag converting and higher highs expected into 260 – look for the high window next.
10-16 – Three down and a very clear wave C – still bullish and a bullish overthrow of the channel trend line. 250-260 still expected into December.
10-23 – Oversold here and still and wave C and a double bottom. Decent long setup here with positive D on RSI. Needs to recover 209 to see target into 250 into December, if now we can see lower.
10-30 – Oversold here and wave C overdone!! Convert 184 and we see a rally as the short bus is very full. Resistance at 209.
11-6 – Oversold and a double bottom setup and looking for a test of 184 and if converted this confirms the next rally.
11-13 – Oversold and about to bounce and convert middle band. COT Commercials are long here, Pos D on RSI, looking for a year end rally.
11-20 – Nice wedge and reversal expected here. COT Commercials are long, Pos D on RSI, year end rally coming.
11-27 – A break up of the wedge has occurred, and next we need to see follow thru next into 210 as resistance.
12-3 – Lean is long here and La Nina continues which means rain and poor crop conditions. IHS forming, 210 next target.
12-11 – A flag printing and higher highs expected here with 180 as the next target, then 210.
12-18 – A flag break up and retest and look for continuation here also – 180 next target then 210.
12-25 – Coffee Daily chart here, positive D on RSI and COT index is long, lean long into 180 resistance then 210 resistance into 2023.
1-1-23 – With a break of the consolidation trend line lower, we can see 160 tested as support, but weather concerns and production problems persist, still expecting 180 next then 210 into 2023.
1-8 – Consolidation is coiling the market and there is a compression warning on Coffee. Lean long into 180 then 210.
1-15 – Compression broke lower last week and low is possible here, my see a lower low to 140 to set up positive D on RSI. Lean is still long and March window 180-85 expected.
Live Cattle
9-4 – Rally and the flag has broken up, looking for a higher high and then a full retest and consolidation before we see higher highs.
9-11 – Higher high completes the structure and look for a retest of previous degree wave 4 then higher highs.
9-18 – Live Cattle rally still expected to complete a wave 5, then retest to 144 support and higher highs expected.
9-25 – Made the new high and now in the retest. Looking for 147 to be support and still expected higher into next year.
10-2 – Live Cattle overthrowing the trend line and putting in a wave X – more upside still expected and may see another $1 or so of downside first.
10-9 – Live Cattle Q4 we should see a drop in production so looking for higher highs. Flag broken up and support trend line should hold.
10-16 – Live Cattle lean is long into Q4 as discussed. 12-2 high window and current consolidation should break higher into upper band.
10-23 – As mentioned, Q4 drop in production and a nice pop in Live Cattle. Retest expected this week and higher into December.
10-30 – Nice rally and Q4 production dropping and more upside into early December expected. 156-158 target.
11-6 – Retest here and support at monthly pivot and flag broken to the upside, 12-2 next target window 156-58.
11-13 – consolidation and looking for the rest of this legg higher into December to 156-58 expected.
11-20 – Higher high and looking for the 12-2 window and 156-158. So far so good.
11-27 – More rally left in this last legg higher into 158. Once seen 154 is support and higher highs expected into Q1.
12-3 – Higher high completes a pattern. Looking for the upper trend line touch and then the break. Production shortfalls this quarter as expected and should continue.
12-11 – Three back and now look for the higher high next, continuation higher expected.
12-18 – Live Cattle typical bullish move during Q4 due to production issues continues. Expecting more upside into 162 after we top out here short term.
12-25 – Production issues continue and a 5th wave here completing, retest into 153 then higher into 162 in early 2023.
1-1-23 – Topping out and retrace in progress. Watch for 152 as support then 162 into the end of February.
1-8 – Retracement incomplete, needs a lower low first before we can see continuation into February.
1-15 – Waiting on wave C, no change to forecast. Once trend line is broken then look for the next rally higher.
Gold
9-4 – Full retest of the low and Gold is a gift at these levels, next high window is in December and just buy some for a longer term hold. Looking for a confirmation of a turn above 1750 this week.
9-11 – Metals are turning, Commitment of Trader reports shows Commercials are long, seasonal trend is up. We may see a lower low, this market is turning.
9-18 – Lower low here while Silver is breaking up. This is a good area to buy a longer dated position into January. Looking for a confirmation above 1730 this week.
9-25 – Lower low here and the lean is still long. Silver a higher low which is in the support area. Looking for a reversal and we are long now as of last week.
10-2 – Gold, nice rally given the USD drop and continuation expected to convert the 1700 area to confirm the run higher to 1900. We are holding long here.
10-9 – Follow through always a nice confirmation. Retesting broken trend line and higher highs expected next.
10-16 – Have retested the broken trend line and then some. DX rally as pressed Gold lower. Long is still the lean into December. Positive D on RSI and looking for a turn this week.
10-23 – Looking for Gold to rally this week as we have a broken flag and higher highs expected. Convert 1670 and we have a confirmation for 1900
10-30 – Consolidation and 1670 still the level to convert. Once seen then a break of 1700 signals we are open to 1900.
11-6 – Nice rally as USD falls apart. Banks buying gold at a record rate, expecting a conversion of 1700 which opens 1900 as next target by year end.
11-13 – Nice rally and overdone, 1736 support and higher highs into 1900 in December still the plan. Have taken off one legg of current trade in profit.
11-20 – Retest and higher expected. Watch for support 1750ish ad higher highs into mid December 1850-1900. One legg in profit, still holding trailer.
11-27 – Decision point here for Gold, we can break higher Monday with a drop in the USD OR we can test 1720. Either way expected a rally into mid December.
12-3 – Lean is long into the end of December. 1850 is the next target, retest and higher highs expected. Support trend line is key here and must hold.
12-11 – Continuation higher into 1850 expected with 1750 as support. A wild week coming with CPI and FOMC and quad-witch!
12-18 – A volatile week last week and still expecting a Gold rally as the USD falls. Middle band being tested and as long as it holds lean long into 1850-1900 next.
12-25 – The Weekly Call has taken profits on the Gold trade – likely the turn is in and we should see 1750 as the next support test before turning higher into April 2023 and 1950
1-1-23 – Retest is expected and looking to reload when 1750 and perhaps 1680 is seen. Lean is still long into April.
1-8 – I am bullish Gold but it needs a retracement. Looking for 1750 next then higher highs.
1-15 – Same forecast, I am bullish but gold very over bought, move driven by the USD. Likely we see the turn this week and 1800 pull back target then higher highs.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $350,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
22nd Jan 2023
