The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 831% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
CPI and PPI readings in the next month are going to have an impact on the markets. US CPI expecting a .2% increase and China .1%. US PPI expected .1% increase would be a moremoderate sign. Could this cause the Fed to pause in their May meeting? Maybe. But for now I am still expecting higher inflation later this year. Fed finds rate should see 7% before it is all said and done. Historically when Fed Funds rate gets as high as inflation then we see inflation beaten and easing can happen. Too early for any change in policy. Interest rates a serious headwind for small cap stocks as we are seeing more and more corporate earnings taking a hit. The Gold rally is right in line with my forecast to 2050 and we should see a turn and reversion to 1975 or so. Copper supply continuing lower which indicates higher prices should be seen into 4.50. On SPX, the turn is likely in and looking lower into early May. Mind your risk as volatility is expected to increase with the CPI and PPI readings.
All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. Mind your risk and size with the high volatility currently present across the markets. I am now trading 15 lots given the account balance and will increase as appropriate given changes in the account balance. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE. Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
9-4 – Forecast is the same, more upside is expected in Sugar and the 9-21 window is approaching. Still expected $20-21.
9-11 – Consolidation continues and more upside is still expected in a thrust. Looking for $20-21 next.
9-18 – Consolidation continues and not any change since last week, Expecting an upside break and still expecting the $20-21 area.
9-25 – Consolidation continued and pressure building, looking for a thrust higher this week. No change in forecast.
10-2 – More compression with Sugar and be patient waiting on the pop higher into $19 next. Should see a conversion of the trend line.
10-9 – Has made target into the high window as discussed, pull back into broken trend line and higher highs expected into 20.50-21.00.
10-16 – Waiting on the pull back as RSI shows Neg D here. Once seen look for next step up into 20.50 or so. 18.20 retest target.
10-23 – Retest almost complete and looking for the broken trend line to get tested. Lean is higher into 20.50.
10-30 – Retest deeper than expected and no change in forecast as we are retesting the broken trend line. Lean is still long into 20.50.
11-6 – Converted the broken trend line and nice rally – we are confirmed into 20.50 next.
11-13 – Nice follow through, support at $19 and higher highs into 20.50 expected.
11-20 – Retest into 19.50 and looking for a higher high once seen. $22 is the next target.
11-27 – Retest now quite done yet, made target but RSI is not where it needs to be, 19-19.20 the zone to watch for a reversal.
12-3 – Lean is long here as the retest appears to be done. Next week we should see higher highs here and next target is 21.50.
12-11 – Volatility this week and USD falling should see SB go higher, still targeting 21.50.
12-18 – Nice break up and continuation should follow, 21.50 next target.
12-25 – Sugar is approaching target and we may see it in early 2023!! Look for a $19 support test when 21.50 is seen.
1-1-23 – No change in forecast here, weather still a driving force with La Nina, 21.50 last legg up expected before seeing $19.
1-8 – The turn is in and look for the trend line next as support. Higher highs are coming to 22.50 once the retest completes.
1-15 – So far so good, no change in forecast. 18.50 next the higher highs to 22.50.
1-29 Change in forecast here as Sugar has broken higher so expect a 5th wave higher then retest into 19.50-20 then higher higher into $22.50 next.
2-5 No change in forecast, retrace expected into $20 then higher into 22.50-23.50 next.
2-12 – Forecast remains the same, more retest needed first as a wave C then look higher into 22.50.
2-19 – Still waiting on the retest into 18.70 or so then the next legg higher. Look for a setup with an RSI in the 30s.
2-26 – Still waiting on the retest into 18.70 or so then the next legg higher. No change to forecast.
3-5 – Negative D on RSI and still needs to see a retest into minimum 19.20. Waiting on the next setup long, 22.50 is still target.
3-12 – Negative D on RSI and still needs a retest, looking for another long entry into 22.50.
3-19 – Retest finally underway and look for support near the monthly pivot at $20. Buy for a long into 22.50.
3-26 – Retest into monthly pivot at $20 then 22.50 target still expected.
4-2 – Target made and likely wave Y complete – retest $21 then look for 23.50 next.
4-9 – Made 23.50…… Big extended wave Y wave here and looking for it to revert into the monthly pivot or so over the next few weeks. Higher highs expected
Coffee
9-4 – Retest in Coffee as expected and higher highs into 10-19 still expected, so far so good.
9-11 – Retest in Coffee may be done, looking for a conversion of middle band and higher highs into the cycle date of 10-19
9-18 – Three down flag and looking for this structure to break up in Coffee. Bull flag targets 260 by 10-19
9-25 – Converting the resistance trend line and looking for the next major legg higher. Trouble with weather and crop in Brazil, should push prices higher.
10-2 – Converting the resistance trend line and 260 is the next target to the upside into the October high window.
10-9 – Flag converting and higher highs expected into 260 – look for the high window next.
10-16 – Three down and a very clear wave C – still bullish and a bullish overthrow of the channel trend line. 250-260 still expected into December.
10-23 – Oversold here and still and wave C and a double bottom. Decent long setup here with positive D on RSI. Needs to recover 209 to see target into 250 into December, if now we can see lower.
10-30 – Oversold here and wave C overdone!! Convert 184 and we see a rally as the short bus is very full. Resistance at 209.
11-6 – Oversold and a double bottom setup and looking for a test of 184 and if converted this confirms the next rally.
11-13 – Oversold and about to bounce and convert middle band. COT Commercials are long here, Pos D on RSI, looking for a year end rally.
11-20 – Nice wedge and reversal expected here. COT Commercials are long, Pos D on RSI, year end rally coming.
11-27 – A break up of the wedge has occurred, and next we need to see follow thru next into 210 as resistance.
12-3 – Lean is long here and La Nina continues which means rain and poor crop conditions. IHS forming, 210 next target.
12-11 – A flag printing and higher highs expected here with 180 as the next target, then 210.
12-18 – A flag break up and retest and look for continuation here also – 180 next target then 210.
12-25 – Coffee Daily chart here, positive D on RSI and COT index is long, lean long into 180 resistance then 210 resistance into 2023.
1-1-23 – With a break of the consolidation trend line lower, we can see 160 tested as support, but weather concerns and production problems persist, still expecting 180 next then 210 into 2023.
1-8 – Consolidation is coiling the market and there is a compression warning on Coffee. Lean long into 180 then 210.
1-15 – Compression broke lower last week and low is possible here, my see a lower low to 140 to set up positive D on RSI. Lean is still long and March window 180-85 expected.
1-29 – Coffee breaking higher and should see 180 next, likely retest into 162 then higher highs into March.
2-5 – Lean is long and retest not deep enough yet, wait for RSI. $210 next target into March.
2-12 – Same forecast this week and still waiting on the wave C lower to finish the retracement. Higher into 210 still expected.
2-19 – Looking for 210 into March, retracement expected first and an RSI in the 30s.
2-26 – Close to target we need a 5th wave higher into time and price window.
3-5 – Lean is still long and close to an RSI of 30, looking for the 5th legg higher into 200-210 then consolidation then higher into 240.
3-12 – Looking for wave 5 higher into 200-210, once seen then a full retrace and then hang on for a big move to 240 next.
3-19 – Flag breaking up and expecting a 5th wave higher into 200 then a consolidation to where we are now then the big advance to 240 next.
3-26 – Lean is still long overall and 5th leg expected into $200 then consolidation then next step up into $240 target.
4-2 – Lean is still long and looking for $200 next as a wave 5. No break of trend line yet but looking or it later this week.
4-9 – Broken flag and now look for $200. 5th wave in play.
Live Cattle
9-4 – Rally and the flag has broken up, looking for a higher high and then a full retest and consolidation before we see higher highs.
9-11 – Higher high completes the structure and look for a retest of previous degree wave 4 then higher highs.
9-18 – Live Cattle rally still expected to complete a wave 5, then retest to 144 support and higher highs expected.
9-25 – Made the new high and now in the retest. Looking for 147 to be support and still expected higher into next year.
10-2 – Live Cattle overthrowing the trend line and putting in a wave X – more upside still expected and may see another $1 or so of downside first.
10-9 – Live Cattle Q4 we should see a drop in production so looking for higher highs. Flag broken up and support trend line should hold.
10-16 – Live Cattle lean is long into Q4 as discussed. 12-2 high window and current consolidation should break higher into upper band.
10-23 – As mentioned, Q4 drop in production and a nice pop in Live Cattle. Retest expected this week and higher into December.
10-30 – Nice rally and Q4 production dropping and more upside into early December expected. 156-158 target.
11-6 – Retest here and support at monthly pivot and flag broken to the upside, 12-2 next target window 156-58.
11-13 – consolidation and looking for the rest of this legg higher into December to 156-58 expected.
11-20 – Higher high and looking for the 12-2 window and 156-158. So far so good.
11-27 – More rally left in this last legg higher into 158. Once seen 154 is support and higher highs expected into Q1.
12-3 – Higher high completes a pattern. Looking for the upper trend line touch and then the break. Production shortfalls this quarter as expected and should continue.
12-11 – Three back and now look for the higher high next, continuation higher expected.
12-18 – Live Cattle typical bullish move during Q4 due to production issues continues. Expecting more upside into 162 after we top out here short term.
12-25 – Production issues continue and a 5th wave here completing, retest into 153 then higher into 162 in early 2023.
1-1-23 – Topping out and retrace in progress. Watch for 152 as support then 162 into the end of February.
1-8 – Retracement incomplete, needs a lower low first before we can see continuation into February.
1-15 – Waiting on wave C, no change to forecast. Once trend line is broken then look for the next rally higher.
1-29 – Bullish Line Cattle thru 2-28, Wave C done and higher highs expected into 164.
2-5 – Live Cattle resistance, retest into 161 then higher into 165 into the end of February.
2-12 – More retrace expected in LE then the last legg higher into 165-66 to complete the pattern. Once seen, a larger retrace into 158 is expected.
2-19 – Topping out here and may have a little left. Big pull back expected into 158 area next.
2-26 – Retrace may have started, looking for 158 next as next step down.
3-5 – Retrace has started, 162 floor ceiling possible support then 158. Lean is still bullish into 190 the end of this year.
3-12 – Lower expected as the retrace is underway. 162 is next target. Lean is still bullish into the end of this year.
3-19 – 162 made and 158 still possible. Lean is long here for Cattle, looking for a positive D setup and a last legg lower.
3-26 – Live Cattle ahead of Feeder Cattle, we can see the lower trend line so mind your stops. Lean is long overall into 166.
4-2 – Live Cattle breaking up and likely headed to 166, retest to broken resistance trend line needed first.
4-9 – Live Cattle gap up and setting up neg D on RSI. Looking for this last legg up to 166 to end soon. pull back into 156 expected.
Gold
9-4 – Full retest of the low and Gold is a gift at these levels, next high window is in December and just buy some for a longer term hold. Looking for a confirmation of a turn above 1750 this week.
9-11 – Metals are turning, Commitment of Trader reports shows Commercials are long, seasonal trend is up. We may see a lower low, this market is turning.
9-18 – Lower low here while Silver is breaking up. This is a good area to buy a longer dated position into January. Looking for a confirmation above 1730 this week.
9-25 – Lower low here and the lean is still long. Silver a higher low which is in the support area. Looking for a reversal and we are long now as of last week.
10-2 – Gold, nice rally given the USD drop and continuation expected to convert the 1700 area to confirm the run higher to 1900. We are holding long here.
10-9 – Follow through always a nice confirmation. Retesting broken trend line and higher highs expected next.
10-16 – Have retested the broken trend line and then some. DX rally as pressed Gold lower. Long is still the lean into December. Positive D on RSI and looking for a turn this week.
10-23 – Looking for Gold to rally this week as we have a broken flag and higher highs expected. Convert 1670 and we have a confirmation for 1900
10-30 – Consolidation and 1670 still the level to convert. Once seen then a break of 1700 signals we are open to 1900.
11-6 – Nice rally as USD falls apart. Banks buying gold at a record rate, expecting a conversion of 1700 which opens 1900 as next target by year end.
11-13 – Nice rally and overdone, 1736 support and higher highs into 1900 in December still the plan. Have taken off one legg of current trade in profit.
11-20 – Retest and higher expected. Watch for support 1750ish ad higher highs into mid December 1850-1900. One legg in profit, still holding trailer.
11-27 – Decision point here for Gold, we can break higher Monday with a drop in the USD OR we can test 1720. Either way expected a rally into mid December.
12-3 – Lean is long into the end of December. 1850 is the next target, retest and higher highs expected. Support trend line is key here and must hold.
12-11 – Continuation higher into 1850 expected with 1750 as support. A wild week coming with CPI and FOMC and quad-witch!
12-18 – A volatile week last week and still expecting a Gold rally as the USD falls. Middle band being tested and as long as it holds lean long into 1850-1900 next.
12-25 – The Weekly Call has taken profits on the Gold trade – likely the turn is in and we should see 1750 as the next support test before turning higher into April 2023 and 1950
1-1-23 – Retest is expected and looking to reload when 1750 and perhaps 1680 is seen. Lean is still long into April.
1-8 – I am bullish Gold but it needs a retracement. Looking for 1750 next then higher highs.
1-15 – Same forecast, I am bullish but gold very over bought, move driven by the USD. Likely we see the turn this week and 1800 pull back target then higher highs.
1-29 – Gold will likely retest here as USD ready for a rally and should see 1832 as retest target. Alternate is retest into 1900 then retest the high then 1832 target. Higher into 2050 into April expected.
2-5 – Gold has made the initial targets as discussed, retest and 1850-1832 then the turn. Looking for major rally into 2050.
2-12 – Retrace in Gold continued lower into 1850-1832 then look for a reversal. DX will likely continue to rally into 106 or so.
2-19 – Target made on Gold and looking for a reversal and next step higher into 2050. DX rally may complete in the 105 area.
2-26 – Turn expected this week and looking for higher highs. Convert 1872 and we open 2050 next. DX spike has made the4 105 area.
3-5 – Middle band has converted, lean is long into 2050, look for a retest of middle band on a daily basis and higher higher.
3-12 – Against the upper band on a daily basis, middle band at 1842 retest expected then higher highs expect into 2050.
3-19 – Big move and the banking crisis, which is a non-crisis, is creating a lot of fear. PTSD from 2009, maybe. Retest needed into 1900 then look for 2050.
3-26 – Nice rally with banking crisis and flight to safety. Expected to continue into 4-5 and 2050 as discussed.
4-2 – Gold consolidating and the break up that is coming should make 2050 and then cause a pull back int the consolidation pattern. Still bullish Gold.
4-9 – Pop higher and 2050 as expected. Target made. Right now small little flat so a minor higher high likely before it comes off into 1975.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
09th Apr 2023
