The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies. Our current performance is showing a more than 277% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This week, I am managing trades in sugar and looking to possibly initiate new trades in lumber, lean hogs, soy, coffee, live cattle, and silver.
Last week, I doubled up my size in sugar and the market may have turned. This week, the support test should be definitional. I am looking for entries this week in lumber and possibly coffee, lean hogs, and live cattle. Some find it hard to wait on trade setups; I have been waiting for weeks and will continue to wait until the trades come to me. Fear of missing out can kill a portfolio and even though my goal is to produce a 400% return by October of this year, I will wait on quality, as I know quality is what will get me to my goal.
All trades posted here are discussed in detail in our Daily Update Subscription Service and posted on our private Twitter feed. Our track record is posted below under Completed Trades. See some of our completed trade videos below.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Soy – Re-entering the Trade
2-19 – Last week, I exited both trailers on both soy positions at 1009 and 1022 for nice profits. I am currently flat and waiting for a retracement to re-enter. This impulse ended a minor degree wave three and we did very well with 66% and 133% return on margins on both positions. I like to carry trailers and add positions on a third wave, especially with commodities. I will be watching for a re-entry at 1003s this week. I am expecting higher prices into 1050.
2-25 & 3-4 – Still waiting on the retracement on soy to re-enter the trade. It really needs to get into the RSI 30-40 area to have any chance of a re-entry. If seen, I plan to re-enter the trade. Cycles show bullish action into April. This is a much higher risk entry than the earlier two on this impulse, so I will be waiting for an ideal setup. I don’t mind missing this one.
3-11 – This week, I re-entered the soy trade with 1/2 size position on what appears to be a wave 4. My entry was 1047.75. I am looking higher still into the 1090 area and will add size once a turn is confirmed. Soy still needs a smaller degree 4 and 5 to finish the decline and we may see monthly pivot.
3-18 – Soy looks like it has turned and has made monthly pivot as discussed. It has also broken the declining resistance trend line and I am expecting it to rally from here to the next high window. I will be exiting 1/3 and be moving my stop to even early this week. This is how we manage risk; legging in and out of the trade on the way to target—more on this next week.
3-25 and 4-1 – I exited the soy trade with the news about tariffs at 1028 — no sense in holding onto a trade which has this type of headline risk. I will be watching this market with a lot of interest as the news shakes out.
4-9 – Tariff news is still having an impact on the tape. Given the headline risk, I am standing aside for now. Soy has downside risk here after the three up is finished to the trend line. China is the largest importer of US soy and last year imported $14B in soy. Any reduction in demand from China will have a serious implication on pricing across the soy complex.
4-22 – I have been waiting on a re-entry and resolution of the tariff news. Soy is in a three down and very close to an entry. Lower prices are likely into 1025ish or so, but I like this setup for a long into May for a trade.
4-29 – Given the current state of the impulse and also the risk reward of this trade, I am going to hold off on any longs for now. I really was not very aggressive with this entry and as a result, I may have missed the last impulse higher. I may look at a short trade here in the coming weeks so I will continue to post soy for the next month to track the cycle date and the next turn lower.
Sugar – Managing the Trade
I am hunting an 18-month cycle low in sugar and we have a reversal pattern in the form of a double bottom. My entry is just 1/2 size to start at 12.88 with risk to 12.50. If the lower low is seen the divergence on RSI should hold and I plan to add size. This may only be a corrective pattern to the upside and if seen we will take profits accordingly.
3-18 – Sugar has seen another legg lower to the support fib at 12.50. I show a new low window in the next few days and am looking for a reversal pattern to add size. I am still expecting a rally into late April.
3-25 and 4-1- I am long sugar and the lower support trendline has just been found on Thursday. I am expecting a reversal from here into the monthly pivot. Once a reversal pattern is seen, this is a good level to add to our position. I will be posting my entry on our private Twitter feed this week. Convert the pivot and we open the late April timing window.
4-8 – Still long sugar 1/2 size and waiting for this week; expecting the bulls to take the tape this week and show us the monthly pivot. On the retest from the monthly pivot, I plan to add size once support is demonstrated.
4-22 – Sugar is near a turn this week and I like the $11 area for the turn. I am looking for a lower trend line touch or a reversal pattern in order to add size to the trade. The May high window should break the wedge trend line which will confirm a turn in Sugar. The reversal pattern should set up early this week.
4-29 – I have doubled my size in Sugar at $11.34 and it appears we may have a turn. For now, we are three up and a re-test down to $11.45, the weekly pivot, should call price higher to $12.50s by May 12th. Divergence has held so we have a candidate low. Time will tell if this is the turn or just a flag setting up a lower low.
Live Cattle – Entering the Trade
4-8 – The backtest is occurring in live cattle as discussed and I am expecting higher prices into the timing window of 4-20. This time of year and into June is peak slaughter time and lower prices are expected as supply comes to market. I currently have no position.
4-22 – The backtest in three waves is still in progress in cattle, looking for either 108 or 110 for resistance as we likely have another wave lower into July. Cattle slaughters and supply at a peak now through June which should push supply into the markets and depress prices further.
4-29 – The entry may come this week as I am patiently waiting for the three back to complete into the 109.20 area to complete the flag. The next legg down should see at least a double bottom at $97. Timing Cycle chart shows the end of June for a potential timing target.
Coffee – Entering the Trade
4-8 – I have been tracking coffee, looking for a turn in this market as the wedge is compressing. Given the price action and the timing window, I will be looking for a turn this week. There is still risk to $114 so any break of the low suggests an exit for now. The largest coffee harvest in the world starts in May so this move may be short-lived. If the setup works, I see higher prices into the next timing window in early May. A trend line break and conversion of monthly pivot confirm the move.
4-22 – I am still looking for the setup to enter coffee, so far no reversal pattern. The fib at 114.10 is a target area where we should see a setup between now and May 12th. The entry with sugar should occur first. I like a rally here in coffee through July.
4-29 – No entry as we now have broken the trend line without any divergence. I am still waiting for the setup and am expecting lower prices. This time of year there is the Brazil harvest and supply will likely depress prices further so I am standing aside and waiting for the setup in coffee. Timing cycles are pointing to early May for a lower low and a possible turn. Some say this is the hard part of trading, waiting for the setup. If you are scanning the market and looking at various setups it is not hard. It is like shopping in a grocery store choosing which ripe melon you want to take home with you. Patience here is key to trading commodities.
Lumber – Entering the Trade
4-29 – I am putting up lumber as a potential short to consider in the coming weeks. The impulse here has been strong and is nearing exhaustion. As you can see from the chart below, lumber is in the five up into the 556-581 area which should be the end of the five up sequence. I am looking for negative D to set up an entry. I am looking for a turn roughly around 5-2 and am expecting 428 as a target for the move.
Lean Hogs – Entering the Trade
4-29 – Lean hogs is an interesting chart and is setting up for a rally. A lower low into my cycle date gets me long with a target roughly in the $90 area. I like the commercial and retail COT positions here and I also like the seasonality long into June. I will be posting my entry on lean hogs and the other commodities list here on The Art of Chart private Twitter feed.
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Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted on this blog using a $50,000 account limited to a three contract position size. We will increase position size after we generate a 200% return. See the videos below for more information.
There is a substantial risk of loss of capital when trading and/or investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.