The Weekly Call for October 11th

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Call, your trusted source for high-quality commodity setups and trading strategies. Since October 2016, our approach has delivered an impressive 777% return, and we continue to share the insights and methodologies that drive these results with this post #529. This week, we’ll explore the latest market trends, actionable trade setups, and global economic factors influencing commodities like sugar, coffee, live cattle, and gold.

Markets ended the week with the major U.S. stock indexes posting gains despite elevated Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and questions surrounding artificial intelligence investment.

The S&P 500 finished near its record closing high, while the Nasdaq and Dow also advanced. However, weakness among small-cap stocks and cryptocurrencies suggests investors remain selective.

This week brings third-quarter earnings from major financial institutions, important inflation reports, and retail sales data. These developments may determine whether the market can extend its recent advance or enters a period of consolidation.

U.S. Markets

S&P 500: 7,811.54 — up 1.15% for the week

The S&P 500 finished close to Tuesday’s record closing level of 7,818.93.

The index recovered on Friday following earlier volatility associated with rising interest rates and concerns about AI-sector profitability.

Continued earnings growth remains supportive, but the market needs stronger participation beyond its largest companies.

A sustained move above 7,819 would reinforce the positive trend. Failure to maintain 7,800 would put the recent advance under closer scrutiny.

Nasdaq Composite: 27,366.17 — up 0.64%

Technology shares recovered Friday, although the Nasdaq remained below its Tuesday closing level of 27,599.89.

Concerns over the timing and profitability of artificial intelligence investments contributed to selling in semiconductor and related technology companies during the week.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming reports from major semiconductor companies for confirmation that spending on AI infrastructure remains supported by customer demand.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,654.95 — up 0.93%

The Dow finished the week higher, with gains occurring despite volatility in transportation, technology, and telecommunications shares.

The coming week’s bank earnings could provide an important test for the financial sector and broader economy.

Russell 2000: 2,806.98 — down approximately 0.91%

Small-cap stocks underperformed the larger benchmarks.

This divergence is important because smaller companies are generally more sensitive to financing costs and domestic economic conditions.

The continued strength of larger companies alongside weaker small caps suggests that investors have not yet embraced a broad risk-on environment.

10-Year Treasury Yield: approximately 5.24%

Treasury yields remain elevated, creating competition for equities and increasing borrowing costs across the economy.

VIX: 14.84

The volatility index finished at a relatively contained level despite uncertainty surrounding inflation, earnings, and geopolitical developments.

Global Markets

FTSE 100: 10,552.05 — up 0.86%

British equities advanced, benefiting from selective strength despite broader uncertainty in energy costs and interest rates.

DAX: 25,087.27 — down 0.57%

German equities weakened over the week as investors continued to assess growth expectations, financing conditions, and industrial-sector pressures.

Nikkei 225: 69,030.92 — up 1.06%

Japanese equities recorded a weekly gain, continuing to demonstrate relative strength.

Shanghai Composite: 3,813.79 — down 0.74% from the September 30 preholiday close

Chinese equities finished lower relative to their last close before the Golden Week holiday. The abbreviated trading week makes direct comparisons with other markets less useful.

Overall, international markets remain mixed. I am watching whether performance begins to broaden or remains concentrated in a limited number of countries and sectors.

Commodities Snapshot

Gold: $4,216.30 per ounce — December futures

Gold recovered during Friday’s trading, settling above $4,200.

The metal remains sensitive to movements in Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and currency markets.

I am watching the $4,156–$4,234 Friday trading range for an indication of the next near-term move.

Silver: $61.048 per ounce — December futures

Silver finished above $61, reflecting renewed buying interest late in the week.

A sustained recovery would be more convincing if supported by continued strength in precious metals and industrial commodities.

Copper: $6.6920 per pound — December futures

Copper strengthened Friday, with investors continuing to evaluate industrial demand and global economic conditions.

Its performance remains useful as an indicator of market expectations for manufacturing and economic activity.

WTI Crude Oil: $91.85 per barrel — November futures

Brent Crude Oil: $104.72 per barrel — December futures

Oil markets remained volatile because of disruptions affecting Middle Eastern shipping and Gulf of Mexico production.

Brent remains above $100, a level that carries implications for inflation, transportation, and corporate operating costs.

Persistent energy prices may complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to contain inflation.

Natural Gas: $3.220 per MMBtu — November futures

Natural gas gained approximately 6.1% during the week.

Storm-related production interruptions helped support the market, although demand, LNG exports, and weather conditions will continue to influence prices.

Cryptocurrency Market

Cryptocurrency markets were generally weaker, despite positive institutional and infrastructure announcements.

Sunday Morning Prices

Bitcoin demonstrated greater resilience than the larger altcoin market.

Ethereum and Solana experienced meaningful declines, while Cardano was one of the few assets in our regular coverage to finish higher.

I remain focused on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize above $80,000 and reclaim the $85,000–$87,000 area.

A stronger recovery across Ethereum, Solana, and other large digital assets would provide better confirmation of improving market sentiment.

Key Market Drivers

1. Federal Reserve policy remains a central concern

Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, released October 7, reinforced that policymakers remain focused on inflation.

The federal funds target range is currently 3.75%–4.00%, following September’s 25-basis-point increase.

Additional tightening remains possible, although the timing depends on incoming economic information.

For investors, higher interest rates increase financing costs and can reduce the relative attractiveness of risk assets.

2. Economic activity remains resilient, but inflation pressures persist

The September ISM Services PMI registered 54.9, indicating continued expansion in the services economy.

However, the prices-paid index increased to 74.0 from 72.6, suggesting that cost pressures remain significant.

This combination supports business activity while complicating the outlook for interest rates.

3. Consumer confidence weakens

The University of Michigan’s preliminary October Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 46.3 from 48.1.

One-year inflation expectations increased to 4.7%, underscoring household concerns about purchasing power.

Consumer spending remains critical to economic growth, making Thursday’s retail sales report particularly important.

4. Labor market conditions remain relatively stable

Initial unemployment claims declined to 197,000.

The low level of initial claims suggests businesses have not substantially increased layoffs despite higher financing costs and softer consumer sentiment.

Investors will continue to assess whether labor-market resilience can be maintained without additional inflation pressure.

5. AI investment expectations are being reassessed

Technology and semiconductor shares experienced selling during the week as investors questioned the pace at which large artificial intelligence infrastructure commitments could produce revenue.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index declined approximately 3.4% Thursday.

Upcoming earnings from major semiconductor companies will provide additional information about demand, margins, and capital spending.

6. Energy prices remain a significant inflation risk

Oil supply disruptions, shipping risks, and hurricane-related production interruptions contributed to volatile energy prices.

Elevated oil costs could affect transportation, manufacturing, consumer spending, and corporate profitability.

I will continue monitoring crude prices alongside inflation expectations and Treasury yields.

7. Earnings season becomes the next major market test

Third-quarter earnings begin with reports from major banks and financial institutions.

Analysts will focus on loan growth, credit losses, deposit costs, capital markets activity, and forward guidance.

Earnings expectations have strengthened substantially, so results may need to be more than merely positive to support additional market gains.

Emerging Crypto Projects & Ecosystem News

Securitize launches tokenized U.S. stock trading

Securitize announced an initiative allowing eligible investors to trade blockchain-based versions of major U.S. equities.

The securities are backed by underlying shares, and the initial platform uses Solana and USDC settlement.

This is an important development in the integration of traditional financial markets and blockchain infrastructure.

Solana introduces institutional settlement infrastructure

The Solana Foundation announced an open-source delivery-versus-payment system designed for institutional financial transactions.

JPMorgan contributed input regarding settlement practices and operational requirements.

The program is intended to allow asset transfers and their corresponding payments to settle together.

OKXICE seeks approval for tokenized stock trading

A joint venture between OKX and Intercontinental Exchange submitted a filing seeking regulatory approval for a platform supporting tokenized securities.

The proposed system aims to support extended trading availability and blockchain-based settlement.

OKX expands stablecoin payment services

OKX introduced OKX Money, combining stablecoin balances, payment functionality, and digital-dollar transfers.

The initiative reflects the growing focus on practical financial applications rather than trading alone.

These developments reinforce my view that blockchain infrastructure continues to evolve even during periods of weakness in cryptocurrency prices.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

The week of October 12–16 includes several important market catalysts.

Monday, October 12

U.S. equity markets are scheduled to remain open, while the Treasury bond market observes the Columbus Day holiday.

Trading conditions may be affected by lower participation in fixed-income markets.

Tuesday, October 13

Major-bank earnings are scheduled from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.

These reports will provide early insight into financial-sector conditions, the consumer economy, and corporate borrowing.

Wednesday, October 14

September Consumer Price Index — 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are also scheduled to report earnings.

Federal Reserve Beige Book — 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

This could be one of the most consequential sessions of the week.

Thursday, October 15

September Producer Price Index — 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

September Retail Sales — 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

The combination will help investors evaluate inflation at the producer level and the strength of consumer demand.

Friday, October 16

September Import and Export Prices — 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization — 9:15 a.m. Eastern.

These releases will add detail to the inflation and manufacturing outlook.

What I Am Watching

The most constructive outcome would be inflation data that show moderation without a substantial deterioration in economic activity.

Stronger bank earnings and favorable management guidance could support additional gains in equities.

However, higher inflation, further increases in Treasury yields, or disappointing earnings could cause markets to consolidate or correct.

Key Levels to Watch

These are reference levels for monitoring price action, combining recent observed prices and round-number zones. They should not be interpreted as guaranteed technical barriers.

As always, stay informed and adjust your strategies based on the evolving market conditions. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are included in the track record posted below under Completed Trades. I am currently trading 15 lots given the account balance and will adjust as necessary based on market developments.

Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.

The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial

Sugar

Coffee

Live Cattle

Gold (GC)

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.

Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.

Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.

Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.

Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.

Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.

Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.