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Still Testing 3900

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The rally from the first backtest of 3900 was over too fast to set up any possible possible divergence on the daily RSIs. That means that there are no possible daily RSI buy signals brewing on the US equity indices, and that is a strike in favor of the bears. The inflection point here remains...

Testing 3900

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The H&S patterns from the rally highs that I was looking at a week ago all made their target areas yesterday and SPX is now testing important support at 3900. This area was significant on the way up in early 2021, and was then key support in May, resistance in June, and was broken as...

On The Road To 3910

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]In my post on Friday I was looking for a fail at the backtest of the 4200 SPX area, and a break down from the H&S patterns forming on the US equity indices and we saw that fail and all the H&S patterns broke down. None of those have yet made target. SPX has broken...

Backtesting 4200

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I had my final divorce hearing this week and that is settled and done. It was a strange sight, lawyers really do strain at gnats and swallow camels. I do wonder how often anything resembling justice is seen in these places and whether, if seen, it happens by chance. I'm glad to be done with...

Broken Flags

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was looking at the equity indices on Sunday, and there were decent looking short term bull flags across the equity indices. These were a good indicator for a rally high retest next but they only break up about 70% of the time. The rest of the time they break down or evolve into larger...

Grey Swans

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I wanted to take an opportunity to take stock of where this rally is in relation to the possible all time high retests that I was talking about in my post on 14th June just before the 2022 low was made. I have done three main posts looking at this and a possible news background...

Still In The Inflection Point

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]If you missed our free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net on Sunday then you can see the recording here or on our monthly free webinars page here. In that Chart Chat we were saying that a retest of the rally high was likely early this week, and we saw that yesterday. SPX has a daily...

In The Inflection Point

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]In my last post on Tuesday I was talking about ideally seeing a higher high on this rally to set up divergence and we have since seen that on SPX, NDX and IWM. That has set possible daily RSI 5 and hourly RSI 14 sell signals brewing on SPX and brought SPX closer to the...

Testing Main Resistance

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]When I started to write about the prospects for a decent rally on the 17th and 22nd June I was somewhat apologetic about even suggesting that a rally might be possible, as the background looked so grim and people were so relentlessly bearish. I was looking for strong rallies on the US equity indices and...

Testing 4000

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Last weekend I was looking at the higher probability bear flag formation options on SPX and was looking at the resistance trendline on the chart below as the highest quality bear flag resistance trendline. That's in the 4050 area now, having eliminating the triangle option in the move up this week, and SPX successfully negotiated...