The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 463% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
Last week’s Fed meeting provided a slightly Hawkish lean and comments from Bullard confirms that the Fed is and will be discussing trimming or as Bullard commented “Of course we need to remove emergency measures….” referring to the measures that have been put into effect as a result of COVID. While the text of the actual announcement probably involves a total of 12 word changes, the press conferences have shed light on the “the rigorous debates” that are coming in the next two fed meetings. Commodities are STILL BULLISH and no major technical damage has been done to bullish trends. The commodity cycle still leans long. The USD reaction to the Fed meeting is the main driver and the USD wrecking ball from last week should see the dominate trend re-assert itself. This represents a significant buying opportunity especially in metals. Buying opportunities exist in Copper, Gold, Silver, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Sugar, Coffee, and Platinum. Longer term holds in metals with inflation developing is still advised. US Dollar devaluation should continue longer term which will press metals and commodities higher in general. No invalidation of the larger trends have occurred yet.
I am currently flat in the portfolio. Last week has opened many new opportunities, watch the twitter feed this week for entries. See the Track Record below under Completed Trades for information on trade this year. All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record which is posted below under Completed Trades below. I have modified the track record to reflect 9 lot trades using the information in this Blog assuming $25,000 per lot as the current portfolio is over $225,000. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
2-21 – Sugar is at target and has overthrown the upper trend line. We are a few days early and there is no negative D on RSI. So likely path here is to set negative D and then reverse. Higher highs expected into 3-1 then a decent pull back into $15. Look for the next long setup in late April/ early May.
2-28 – Sugar is turning and may see a higher high or a lower high this week. Watch for a confirmation of a reversal with a break of the monthly pivot at 16.38. Sugar has made target as discussed and is poised for a pull back into May.
3-7 – Sugar is pulling back as expected and about to break the support trend line of the last advance. Look for lower as Brazil gets ready for harvest into May. Target is $14-14.50.
3-14 – Sugar has completed a 5 down structure now looking for a three back and another lower low. Target is still 14.50 stead as she goes.
3-21 – Sugar starting the next 5 down structure as it has completed 5-3 and now looking for the next 5 down. Watch for weekly pivot as resistance this week.
3-28 – Sugar now completing the second 5 down as discussed so we now have a 5-3-5 structure and likely we will break the support trend line – watch for a bounce this week from the Negative D setup on RSI and then lower to complete the larger retracement structure. So far a great call on Sugar!
4-4 – No reversal on Sugar yet, but the setup is still there. Positive D is holding on RSI and a move higher into $15.50 is warranted. Once complete watch for the next legg lower into May.
4-11 – Reversal in Sugar as discussed, and now in wave B, watching for a marginal higher high to complete B then start C lower into May window. So far so good.
4-18 – Sugar is now three back and has more than made target. This is where we need to see the bear take the take this week and make the lower low. Support at 15.50-15.75 is a bullish sign and higher highs can happen directly. The lean is still lower lows and a break of the support trend line.
4-25 – Sugar has topped out and is about to pull back. 5-14 is the low cycle date and we have the possibility that we may just see $15 and a higher low. Expecting a turn this week.
5-2 – Sugar pulling back as expected and more than likely will see three down and higher highs into $19. China is buying commodities at a record pace and cane is just one they are focused on. More upside is expected and support at $16.
5-9 – Sugar not pulling back yet but needs to give RSI a break before it can advance further. Lots of reasons to buy Sugar but no set up here to get long. Wait for the pull back into Monthly pivot first then look for $19.
5-16 – Sugar pulling back as discussed and the trend line break was expected and a good sign that we find a bottom this week and higher highs. Look for $1650 or so then $19 as target.
5-23 – Expecting the next rally starting this week as we are close to the 16.50 target and looking for $19 next. So far so good, looking for the next rally in Sugar.
5-20 – Rally as expected Sugar and looking for continuation higher this week and next stop is $19. The current low needs to hold.
6-6 – So far so good on the rally. Small three down in progress and looking for the next major step higher into $19. Look for support at 17.20.
6-13 – No change in forecast, bullish lean into $19 and 17.20 is support – consolidation and a correction in time instead of price, this can break up directly.
6-20 – retest helped last week by the USD rally and the Fed meeting, made the 17.20 retest target and formed a 5 down for a wave C. Look for channel resistance to break up and target remains at $19.
Coffee
12-6 – Wave C is printing and looking for a long in the 115-113 area. Next long should make 135 into the late January time frame. Look for the three back to complete for the next turn and an RSI in the 30 area.
12-13 – Coffee is not quite make the 115 area and turned and broke the resistance trend line from the 116s. At this point the broke trend line should be support and next step up is into January 24th and 135. Watch for an IHS and then the next step up.
12-20 – Coffee should see more for pullback before continuation higher. Expecting a 1/24/2020 high window and $136.00. Watch the daily middle bollinger band as next support.
12-27 – Coffee should continue to find the support trend line support into the January 24th window. Looking for higher prices into $136 target and possibly higher into $140.
1-3 – Coffee having production problems with the Brazil crop off 15%. Demand has been weak due to Covid so these market forces seem to be balancing each other. Expecting a high this month into 1-24 timing window and $136, support is the trend line as as long as it holds, expect higher prices.
1-10 – Coffee made the lower trend line of the channel system and turned as expected. Continuation higher expected into 1-24 and $136. Demand should pick up later in the year and with the production issues in Brazil, expect this market to be bullish through 2021.
1-17 – Nice rally on Coffee and continuation higher expected, weekly pivot at 126.20 is support and higher highs into 136 expected into the end of January. Coffee will continue to be bullish this year.
1-24 – Pull back on Coffee and a break of the weekly pivot. The trend line is support and must hold to open the $136 target. Rally confirms above 125.20. A broken trend line here and stand aside as this could be an expanded flat.
1-31 – A broken tend line in KC and that means a flag may be developing and lower prices to 117. Chances are that a retest of 123.95 occurs first then lower lows.
2-7 – Coffee is consolidating and as mentioned last week, lower prices should develop in a wave C into the 117-118 area. From there look higher into 136.
2-14 – Coffee is working it way to target also, and should see 119.55. This week a reversal may occur and next step up is 136 into the end of March. I’ll be looking for a long this week.
2-21 – The Coffee turn was early and did not make full target at 119.55. This week look for a low retest and higher to target at 136. We can see a full double bottom retest.
2-28 – Coffee has made the 136 target and is in a shallow retest again. Likely we see support at 133.35 and higher prices into 141q and eventually 149 which should be the top of Wave Y. Lean long with Coffee this year as demand expansion and a poor crop year are creating bullish conditions.
3-7 – Coffee pulling back as expected. Wave Y complete and a last legg higher is needed into 141-144. A turn is expected this week and trend line support is just below. Watch for a positive D setup on RSI.
3-14 – The turn has occurred as discussed and not quite at the trend line. We could see the trend line or we convert Monthly pivot and head higher. The Lean is still higher into 141-144.
3-21 – Trend line support which must hold this week to see the next advance in Coffee. Looking for target next at 141-144.
3-28 – Trend line has broken down and this opens a lower low into the 124.40 area. We can still see this and the lean is the same, long Coffee into 141-144 into late April/early May.
4-4 – Low is being retested and I am looking for a reversal this week on Coffee. Convert 124.40 and we have lift off and 141-144 is still target for the next legg up.
4-10 – Reversal as discussed and now Coffee is in the next leg higher into 141-144. So far so good, this week middle band need to be support to see continuation higher. So far so good.
4-18 – Retesting and looking for the next advance – watch for support in the 128 area and next advance into 141 coming. So far so good.
4-25 – Coffee is headed higher into 141-144 as discussed. Support is now at 130 and should hold. Watch for target in about two weeks.
5-2 – Coffee is close to full target which is now with the roll is 151. Expecting middle band or $140 as support and higher highs into $151 next. From there we pull back into monthly pivot as a minimum target.
5-9 – Coffee has made target and now expect a decent retracement back to monthly pivot. Should see 138-140 as the last advance was very USD driven. Likely we see the retrace start this week.
5-16 – As mentioned last week, a decent retracement in progress ad look for a turn for wave B then lower lows for wave C. Previous degree wave 4 is 140 or so, once seem we should have RSI setup for a long. Looking for the next long entry here.
5-23 – Retracement is still incomplete as we have a wave B which should yield a wave C lower into 140. Higher highs expected into 170 once the pull back is complete.
5-30 – Coffee is extended here and the retrace is still incomplete. This week look for a conversion of 157.65, a break of the support trend line and lower into 143-144. Once seen buy Coffee as $170 is still target.
6-6 – The reversal is in and now looking for the rest of the structure lower. Trend line should break and looking for a print in the 145 area. Lower high expected to hold.
6-13 – Consolidation here also and look lower into 152 at a minimum and likely 146-67, Legg C is about to unfold.
6-20 – Legg C unfolding as discussed, and near target. Can make a marginal lower low to set up positive D. Likely we see a reversal this week. $170 is the next upside target.
Live Cattle
11-28 – Cattle very close to target, and am expecting a small push into $115 and a higher high that sets neg D on RSI. Chances are we will break the support trend line and open a retest of the low into December. Wait for the setup.
12-6 – Live Cattle close to invalidation as the trend line must hold here. Monday need to see a reversal higher and ideal target area for this flag is 116. We are late to the high window and if the trend line breaks we see a retest of the low directly. Lean for now is still long into 115-116.
12-13 – Live Cattle invalidated the support trend line and is now back-testing it. As mentioned to subscribers, look for the next major step lower into January 16th then the next higher high. Looking for a reversal this week and lower lows into 105-06.
12-20 – Live Cattle may be in a triangle here, lean is still lower into the 106 area into January and this week we need to see a reversal OR we can continue higher into target. Waiting for a turn no higher than the R1. If we break, higher highs will ensue.
12-27 – Live Cattle may be in a triangle here. It is early to call a triangle but it has all the characteristics. The R1 must hold here and if seen, look for wave C of the triangle into the 1-16 window then D and E then thrust into 2-26. The ideal play here is a long at the bottom of wave C or a strangle to capture premium.
1-3 – The triangle broke up so expecting a shallower pull back as we are finishing a 5 wave sequence. A higher high and we see a pull back into 1-16 and the $112.00 area before the next major move higher into $124.
1-10 – Live Cattle is consolidating and may see a retest of the low before seeing the next legg higher into the end of Feb. $134 is target and looking for the previous high to convert to confirm next legg higher.
1-17 – Live Cattle has made target and is against monthly pivot. Convert the pivot and we see 2-26 as the next high window and the 122-124 area. Look for a confirmation on a conversion and invalidation below the current low.
1-24 – Nice rally from the low as expected, and higher highs into 2.26 and the 122-124 area is next. RSI is expected so watch for support at 120 and continuation higher.
1-31 – Retracement and support at 120 is expected and the last leg up in LE into 126s and completion of major degree wave W. Looking for a reversal this week.
2-7 – Confirmation of the turn last week and continuation higher as expected into the 2-26 window and likely the 126 window.
2-14 – Target has been made in Live Cattle, we can see a last push higher into 2-26. A reversal is coming this week and looking for a break of the lower trend line and the 117 area next into April.
2-21 – Reversal in Live Cattle no surprise as we made target last week. looking for a right shoulder this week and a move to the trend line in the 118 area. Still bullish Live Cattle and looking for 134-35 next after the retracement.
2-28 – Watch this week for Live Cattle to bottom out in the 118-119 area. No long setup yet on RSI but one is coming later this week. Looking for the next step higher into 135s.
3-7 – No turn yet for Cattle, we are in he 118 zone and we have a positive D setup. Waiting for a marginal lower low, Looking for a Cattle reversal this week.
3-14 – Cattle is in a possible reversal and we have a positive D setup on RSI. Looking for the rally this week and eventually target at 132-134.
3-21 – Live Cattle has overthrown the trend line can can still see a marginal lower low. A long setup is coming when we reset pos D on RSI – 132-134 is still the target in May.
3-28 – Looks like Live Cattle has reversed. As much as I want to confirm the turn, there has not been a support test yet and ideally we see the declining resistance trend line and then higher. This week a decisive week for cattle – lean is still long into 132-134 into May.
4-4 – Live Cattle topping out here and a higher high sets up neg D on RSI and a support test at monthly pivot. $121 support and higher into 132 is expected.
4-10 – Retracement on Live Cattle as discussed, and looking for higher highs into 132-134. So far so good.
4-18 – No joy with the reversal in Cattle. We are at trend line support and the next step up is coming. Needs to convert 123.50 to confirm 132-134 next.
4-25 – No joy yet on Live Cattle, we are very extended to the downside. Looking for the weekly pivot to convert at 116.975 to signal a confirmation of the turn. Lots of positive D on RSI. Looking for a confirmation this week.
5-2 – Live Cattle is turning with a bullish overthrow of the channel support trend line which means we should se a rally this week into Monthly Pivot. Expecting more upside into 132-134.
5-9 – Live Cattle has reversed and has gone much lower than expected. This week we should see the low retest and support in at an inverted right shoulder level of about 114 then higher. This seen, the turn is confirmed and 132 is the next target to the upside.
5-16 – Live Cattle has seen a 5 wave rally and is in the low retest as discussed last week. Looking this week for a reversal as we are in the inverted right shoulder area. 114 should be support and a higher high confirms target at 132.
5-23 – Live Cattle looks to be heading higher if the trend line holds this week. Next step up is 132, we should see more of a squeeze above 121.
5-30 – Live Cattle looking for a low retest here and currently could see a full three down into 116.50. Also currently three down and can turn here directly. Tuesday’s tape should decide the direction.
6-6 – Live Cattle has seen the three down as mentioned last week, now expecting higher highs into target area at 132. This week’s price action needs to hold 117.40 to see continuation higher.
5-13 – Live Cattle has broken up and is converting the trend line. Watch for the broken trend line to now be support, lean is higher into July 18th.
5-20 – So far so good on Live Cattle. Retest and higher expected and the retest is basically complete. Next rally should start to unfold. 132 is target.
Gold
12-27 – Continuation higher expected in Gold and the support trend line needs to hold into 1920 or so before a pull back will ensue. Gold should set up with neg D here in a higher high and any pull back is a buying opportunity. For 2021, expect to see inflation support Gold prices.
1-3 – Continuation higher still expected as we have not yet seen 1920ish target and a new swing high. Once seen this week we should see a pull back and another buying opportunity into 70 by mid January then the next major swing higher into March. I am bullish commodities in general in 2021, especially metals and Gold.
1-10 – New swing high as expected, the POP then the DROP as expected also and beyond retrace target at 1870-50ish. This represents a buying opportunity so adding to existing positions here is suggested. We can still see positive D set up on RSI so a marginal lower low is possible. Looking for a reversal this week and a move higher into March and 2100s possible.
1-17 – Gold is likely turning here and I am expecting the next legg higher to start this week. A double bottom is almost here and if seen positive D is a strong long setup. DX may be reversing as if seen that will support gold prices.
1-24 – Higher prices as expected last week and we are in a small retrace here which should hold weekly pivot. Looking for continuation higher this week. DX may have broken lower and should see $88 – GC must hold 1815 this week and we are at a decision point here Monday.
1-31 – Broken flag and a retest of flag resistance trend line and higher highs expected. DX is finding resistance at the trend line and if that resistance holds, look higher in GC. 1815 still support and looking for it to hold this week.
2-7 – Last week 1815 broke which opened the next support area at the monthly S1 which is where we are now. We can see a turn without positive D on RSI or we will see a lower low and a turn. The decision to watch is 1821 – if resistance likely the low will be retested and possibly a lower low.
2-14 – Gold broke 1821 last week and also broke the trend line. Chances are we have just retested the low and should see an impulse and higher highs this week. DX has already reversed and lower low coming. Gold getting ready for 2000 and beyond. It is possible to see a lower low here and if seen it is a buying opportunity.
2-21 – Gold putting in a bottom here with positive D on RSI. Key for this week is a rally through the trend line at 1800. DX has reversed and lower to $88 should play out. This is a decent buying opportunity.
2-28 – Gold failed to rally through 1800 and has made a larger three down. Support trend line at 1705 which must hold or we open 1636. 1800 still my main marker for the rally to confirm and I am still bullish Gold this year, no long term change in forecast as we are finishing a retracement pattern.
3-7 – Gold may be turning here for at least a bounce as we have a positive D setup here on RSI. Convert the trend line at 1760 and we have the next leg higher confirmed. OF we find resistance we can open the larger three down target at 1638. Gold is in a bull flag and I am expecting it to break up.
3-14 – Gold may have reversed, no confirmation yet on the structure which requires a conversion of 1755. If seen Gold will turn trend up. Requirements are USD to drop and the 10 yr yields to stay between 1.25-1.70.
3-21 – Gold may have reversed and a confirmation is coning on a conversion of the declining resistance trend line. We convert 55 we have a confirmed turn and higher highs to come. No inflation scare yet but this will eventually come to pass later this year.
3-28 – Gold now is compressed and about to break, direction is likely higher then typical triangle dynamics would see a retest back into the triangle then higher highs expected. Looking for a significant move this week on Gold and also the USD.
4-4 – Gold’s low retest is in and now the bulls are in “must perform”mode. DX is setup short and continuation lower going to press precious metals higher. This week we need to hold 1705 as support and see a new swing high above 1755.
4-11 – Gold has seen the bull perform as expected. DX has started it’s next legg lower too. At this point DX needs a pull back and lower and we should see that mirrored on GC. Monthly pivot is support at 1716 and higher into 1850 is expected next.
4-17 – Gold has broken up and should not continue higher into the 1850 area. Support is now at the trend line which must hold. The USD has broken lower and 88.50 is next so more upside is expected in Gold.
4-25 – Gold may see a small pull back here in the way to 1850. More downside expected in the USD and more upside expected in Gold. More volatility expected in stocks and indexes so we may see a rotation in the coming weeks into metals.
5-2 – Three down and monthly pivot support here. Looking for a rally and a reversal in the USD. It is possible to see 1716 as a deeper retest depending on what the USD does. Longer term forecast for DX is lower and GC is higher. Next stop is 1850 and the trend line.
5-9 – Payroll numbers Friday were much weaker than expected which resulted in the USD dropping and GC had a nice rally. We have made the 1850 target as discussed. Next step is a retrace and then a break and conversion of the declining resistance trend line.
5-16 – Gold is now against the 1850 trend line and I am looking for it to convert. We may first see the support tend like at about 1800 before seeing 1850 break. This is another chance to accumulate Gold for the next rally higher as the USD continues it’s devaluation lower.
5-23 – A pull back is still expected on Gold, nothing significant here in terms of a pull back and needs a rest on RSI before the next major step higher occurs. Look for a support test at 50 or 35 this week and higher highs into 1900 next.
5-30 – A small push expected and a long over due pull back into 50. Still bullish Gold and expecting higher highs into 1930 next.
6-6 – Last week we saw DX head higher which cause the retrace into the 50 area. From here DX should drop to new lows and 1930 is next. Current support is 1835, expecting a rally this week.
6-13 – Consolidation last week and should continue in a trading range between 1930 1864. Lean is 1930 next – retest – then higher highs.
6-20 – FOMC and the USD news reaction has pressed Gold lower than expected. We have broken the flag and the trading range as mentioned last week. This a news reaction so price action and the dominate trend is expected to play out next. We can see resistance at the 150 DMA and lower lows, while this is possible, watch DX for clues, as we can break up directly. Fundamental trend is still intact and I am still bullish Metals and Gold.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 9 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $225,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
20th Jun 2021
