Category: Long Term View

A Big Picture Review

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]In my post on Friday 6th August I was looking at a possible backtest scenario on SPX that could be setting up and I'd like to review how that is looking on my first post this year, as I think that backtest may well be delivered over the next few weeks. That backtest would be...

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Category: Long Term View

Choices Choices

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]SPX did the lower low I was expecting in my last post and found support at the rising support trendline from the March 2020 low, as I had suggested it might. The strong rally since then is now within striking distance of a retest of the all time high, and if seen, the normal range...

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Category: Long Term View

The Daily Lower Band Ride

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The mean reversion move that I was looking for in my posts over the last two weeks has now completed, with SPX breaking below the 45dma, now at 4562. That is the main target for the move hit, though that doesn't mean that the low is necessarily in, or close. There are some signs that...

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Category: Long Term View

Approaching Key Support

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was talking in my last post on Friday about the likely mean reversion move coming that should at least return SPX to a backtest of the 45dma, now at 4549. The low so far today has taken SPX down to the 4565 area, so that is getting close, and SPX is now in an...

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Category: Long Term View

Thanksgiving Thoughts

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]UPDATE NOTE - Since I wrote this post last night, SPX/ES has obviously broken down from the asymmetric double top there with alternate targets in the 4540 and 4515 (both SPX) areas, though so far, NDX/NQ has not yet broken down. So far this week SPX has defied the historically bullish tape over Thanksgiving and...

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Category: Long Term View

Options For Next High

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]As I was saying in my last post on Monday, the all time high on SPX a few days before was at an impressive 5.54% over the 45dma and, excluding the spike up after the low last year, was one of the highest against the 45dma in the last decade. This is a good indication...

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Category: Long Term View

Mean Reversion Looks Close

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The last high on SPX reached a few days ago was an impressive 5.54% above the 45dma, one of the highest readings in the last decade excluding the initial spike up from the March 2020 low, and slightly above the 5.4% reached at the early 2018 high. Coupled with the strong punch over the NDX...

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Category: Long Term View

Another Day, Another Inflection Point

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was saying yesterday that I was expecting the decision in yesterday's inflection point to be made fairly quickly and so it was. The smaller NDX H&S pattern I showed broke down at the open this morning and has now made target. NDX 5min chart:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="119393" img_size="large" alignment="center" onclick="img_link_large"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]That has completed the larger H&S pattern...

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Category: Long Term View

Nasdaq Setting Direction Here

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I haven't written a post since 1st September as I've been immersed in divorce paperwork again. That should all be finished within a few days, and that should be the last serious work that needs to be done in my quest to be single again, which will be a relief. This should therefore be the...

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Category: Long Term View

Rising Wedges And Mean Reversions

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]I was looking at the tests of the main resistance trendlines on SPX and ES on Monday, and at the possibility that SPX might turn down there. Instead it broke through, dragged upward by tech stocks, and the very nice daily RSI 5 divergence on both SPX and NDX was lost. On both SPX and...

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