It's been a while since we last saw an example, but one of my strongest historical stats is the Three Day Rule. On this stat, there first needs to be a 2%+ decline, and then on a break back over the 5 day MA, currently at 2627, then on a clear daily closing break back...
read moreTag: RUT
Better Late Than Never
I prepared this post a while before the close today, but for some reason, my media computer took two hours to encode the video. Everything still relevant now so here it is. In the interim the backtest into the 2619 area is in progress and assuming that support holds, I'm expecting a higher high to...
read moreTag: RUT
One Down, Three To Go
Today is the end of the first quarter and the first day of the second quarter on Monday traditionally leans 75% bullish. That's worth bearing in mind here as any bullish move here may follow through on Monday. Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL,...
read moreTag: RUT
FOMC Tomorrow
ES bounced at monthly pivot support yesterday and a likely bear flag is forming that on a break down should at minimum deliver a retest of yesterday's low, and likely continuation lower after that. There is a small section looking at Facebook at the end of the video today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES,...
read moreTag: RUT
A Promising Start
ES never managed to break below weekly pivot support last week, but the new weekly pivot moved over price and ES is now testing the monthly pivot at 2698, which is holding so far. SPX and NDX have broken their rally rising wedges and retraced 38.2% of them, and if we are to see a...
read moreTag: RUT
In-Between Daze
Today has been a choppy in-between day as SPX/ES has tested strong support and, so far at least, failed either to convert it to resistance and continue down, or rally strongly from it. However, we are likely to see one or the other of those soon and I'm surprised that the process has taken as...
read moreTag: RUT
Testing Key Support
Yesterday's promising start to the downtrend has continued today and brought ES & SPX down to test important trend support at the weekly pivot on ES at 2749 and the 50 hour MA on SPX now at 2751. SPX is trading about 4 handles below ES today. A decent confirmation that support is breaking would...
read moreTag: RUT
Buffing Fingernails Modestly
Stan and I were saying in the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday that the last day of the cycle high window was today and we were expecting to see a rally high made by the end of the day. You can see the recording of that here. There was obviously no doubt in our...
read moreTag: RUT
The Blue Pill
ES gapped up over resistance on the NFP numbers this morning, and we are running the second option that I was looking at on the intraday video yesterday. ES is likely to hit the rising channel resistance I was looking at yesterday and that is now in the 2785 area. Ideally that gets hit today....
read moreTag: RUT
The Thin End Of The Wedge
On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of...
read more