The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 463% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.
Last week, the outsized gains in jobs with revisions in December and January numbers much higher than expected is clear evidence of an improved economic outlook. This raises the odds of the first interest rate hike from the Fed of 50 basis points or more. The Fed is planning 4 interest rate hikes this year and evidence of increased inflation continues to be seen. The next two days will determine the trend for the remainder of February for the S&P which for now can go either way. With a hawkish Fed will commodity inflation continue? The answer is yes due to the fact that the Fed has actually done nothing yet. Food related commodities should lead the rise in inflation going forward. Bullish follow through is expected as Argentina is getting dryer. Corn and Soybeans as a result are still bullish. Natural gas follow through has played out as expected, look for $6 next. Oil is still expected to retest but also continue higher as the theme of demand outstripping supply is still present. This will eventually change but for now these themes are present in the markets. Weakness in equities in the first half of 2022 is expected, commodity inflation should continue at least into July this year and volatility overall is still expected to be high going forward.
All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record which is posted below under Completed Trades below. I have modified the track record to reflect 9 lot trades using the information in this Blog assuming $25,000 per lot as the current portfolio is over $225,000. See some of my completed trade videos below.
The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE.
The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: – Click Here for a FREE Trial
Sugar
9-12 – Retracement has played out as expected and looking for a reversal this week and a move to begin into $21. A minor legg lower is likely into 18.30-50. Expecting a reversal later this week from that area.
9-19 – Flag has been broken to the upside as expected and looking next for the $21 target. This legg should be choppy and will be somewhat dependent on the USD dropping.
9-26 – Consolidation should break up and looking for Sugar to make target at $21. A USD drop here will help Sugar.
10-3 – Sugar is in the last legg into $21, it may make it before the November cycle date. New highs coming and should see $21-21.50 as forecasted.
10-10 and 10-17 – No change in forecast, all is going well, continuation higher expected into target $21-21.50.
10-24 – A broken trend line and a full three back with support in a channel. Expecting the channel to break up and see the $21 target. This should be the last advance for Sugar this year.
10-31 – Three back completed and still expecting $21 target. Commercials are aligned for a last rally. Looking for more upside this week.
11-7 – More upside should continue this week. Look for the flag resistance trendline to break and higher highs to $21-21.50 to finish the pattern.
11-14 – Against the upper channel trend line and the flag is about t break up. Looking for a higher high into 21.50 this week then a retest and higher highs.
11-21 – A break up from the flag channel and higher highs expected into 21.50. Pull back to previous support and higher into 2022.
11-28 – Holiday tape and a three back flag on Sugar, looking for the flag to break higher and still expecting target at 21.50. Possible triangle here.
12-5 – Trend line support and looking for the Monthly pivot to break up. Likely target is 21.50 and being patient and waiting. DX should drop this week which will help.
12-12 and 19 – The turn is in in Sugar and next stop is 21.50. The resistance trend line should break up and looking for this last legg to finish by January.
12-26 – Retesting the trend line resistance. Look for the resistance trend line next at 20.50 and 21.50 as target.
1-2 – Sugar printing a small flag that should break up. Target remains the same at 21.50.
1-9 – Bull flag may be complete here and looking for a turn this week and a break up into $21.50. Retracement pattern may be compete.
1-16 – The turn may be in, and a retest of the low can still happen. Convert the declining resistance trend line and this confirms to $21.50
1-23 – The turn is confirmed and more upside is expected to higher highs. $21.50 target and gap support below.
1-30 – Retest of the broken trend line and next impulse higher is expected. $21.50 is still target.
2-6 – Nice setup here and a retest of the low with positive D on RSI – look higher this week and target is $21.50
Coffee
10-10 – A classic pattern – flag breaking up, backtesting the channel trend line and rally expected into $230 into early November. This will be the completion of a major degree impulse.
10-17 – Another small flag which should break up this week as we head higher into target at $230. First week of November likely the high for the year.
10-24 – The small flag has not broken up yet but is expected to. Look for higher prices this week and next week the $230 target.
10-31 – Trend line support and higher highs expected into $230. Coffee should be making the high for the year in November.
11-7 – KC consolidating and expecting trend line support and the next legg higher. Higher high puts in a short term top. Looking for $230.
11-14 – Flag has broken up so expecting target this week at 230. Looking for a counter trend move into the 180 area then higher highs. The high for the year should be in this week.
11-21 – KC is topping out and setting up a reversal into 180 into February. This should be the high for the year for Coffee.
11-28 – Coffee still strong and now a 5 up and negative D on RSI , expecting a pull back into February and 180.
12-5 – Coffee retesting the high and a reversal should complete this week. A good rejection from the high is a sign, lower next into February and 180 is target.
12-12 and 19 – The turn for Coffee is in, we have found the neckline area as support and a retest of the broken trend line resistance is likely next.
12-26 – Trend line converted and now expecting monthly pivot next. The declining resistance trend line should hold on the retest.
1-2 – Lower lows still expected on Coffee, 210 is next then 190. Looking for a February low.
1-9 – One more legg lower expected into 210 minimum and then look for the long setup. Expecting higher highs, but lower low first.
1-16 – Coffee turning and as discussed 210 is the next step lower. Should see a push this week. An alternate to consider is a retest of the trend line and higher. I am bullish Coffee this year and the best structure for a bullish run is a lower low.
1-23 – Coffee needs to convert the rising support trend line and if seen we open 210 as target. Fail this week and we are already in the next impulse higher. Key decision this week for KC.
1-30 – Coffee making a decision here, convert the trend line and we open 210 for a great long opportunity. It is possible to go higher directly but not a high probability long.
2-6 – Coffee may be break up directly – or this can be a short term double top which will call price lower. Given where RSI is right now, I’m, waiting to see how this resolved. Break back below the trend line and we se 210 next and a nice long setup. I am hunting a long setup with the trend, avoiding the short side for now.
Live Cattle
10-10 – Oversold and a rally as expected and looking for the higher around the 20th then pull back and higher into February next year. As inflation rises we should see cattle prices rise also.
10-17 – Breaking up and Live Cattle is heading into the November high window and 135 target. Continuation higher expected.
10-24 – Monthly pivot support and higher highs expected with target at 134. Watching this week with interest as the monthly pivot must hold here as support.
10-31 – Important trend line support test occurring now, this is a must hold and higher highs expected. Target is still 134, looking for a turn Monday.
11-7 -Expansion to the upside and now past the cycle date and waiting for target at $134 this week. Should see weekly pivot and then the next legg higher.
11-14 – Chop and a press higher to target completes the first legg higher. Retest and higher highs into 140 expected. This instrument should track with inflation.
11-21 – LE – new highs and negative D setup on RSI, we may still see higher highs into 139 – looking for a retest of the last support and higher highs into 142 next.
11-28 – Live Cattle has made target and now expecting a pull back into 137 then higher highs expected. Inflation should power this commodity higher.
12-5 – Needs a wave C lower to complete the flag patterns. Expecting higher highs next into 144 and higher into 2022.
12-12 and 19 – Live Cattle is completing wave C and likely will break higher into 144 next. Support is a little lower at 136.50.
12-26 – Live Cattle retested the low at 136.50 as discussed, looking for the rally from here. Convert the broken trend line and higher highs should ensue.
1-2 – No change in forecast. Three back and expecting the next rally into 144. Monthly pivot is expected as support.
1-9 – Trend line support and higher highs expected into 144. Needs to convert weekly pivot this week which is 138.15.
1-16 – Live Cattle now back above the trend line and a small over throw last week. Expecting 146 as target and a conversion of the monthly pivot this week.
1-23 – Live Cattle breaking up and continuation higher expected. A lot of compression forming, upper trend line converts is the confirmation for 146 as target.
1-30 – The lean is higher in Cattle, looking for 146 as next target. Compression should break up this week.
2-6 – Target made at 146. Likely we see a 4 and a 5 for a short term sell signal. Once we see the retrace, look for the next long setup into 151.
Gold
9-5 – Declining resistance trend line converted as expected and now likely the first 5 up is done as a first impulse. Look for a retracement back into the 1800 area ad the broken trend line.
9-12 – Back test in Gold is close to complete, we can see a retest of the current swing low and as far as the monthly pivot. DX has also retested and looking for DX to start the next legg lower which should power metals higher. This is a spot to accumulate metals.
9-19 – Another legg lower and DX has put in a flag, and GC a three down. Looking for a bullish confirmation this week above 1772. Watch DX as it should give clues given the flag that has just finished forming, if it breaks down, Gold will rally.
9-26 – Still looking for the flag to break up. Needs to convert 1780 this week to open higher highs. Next high window is in January so looking for the rally to begin. DX currently consolidating and forming a flag which should break down this week which will influence GC prices.
10-3 – The USD has broken the flag upward which opens a possible test of $96 and opens a low retest on Gold. Looking for $1680 as a support test as the USD continues higher. There is a chance we break higher directly but this is a lower odds play, Gold should correct with the USD.
10-10 – Waiting on the USD rally and gold is consolidating. Looking for a low retest before we see a major rally as the USD may rally into 95.50.
10-17 – Gold is likely going to see a pull back as DX rises, this week look for a retest of the low then higher highs in Gold. The long term trend is still higher.
10-24 – Gold still looking for a pull back and hit the 100% fib and the resistance trend line of a channel. Looking for a retrace that break the support channel trend line and results in 1745. The trend is up longer term, a chance to accumulate Gold.
10-31 – Gold breaking down and looking for an RSI of 30 and a target of 1765. The trend is still up in Gold and this sip represents a buying opportunity.
11-7 – Gold saw 1765 and has turned. USD still may rally so some weakness short term can occur but the retracement low is likely in. 1780 support and higher highs coming.
11-14 – Gold should see a pull back this week and a higher high. The flag has broken as mentioned last week so higher highs thru Feb are expected.
11-21 – Retest as expected and almost at target. 1835 expected and if support then higher highs into February and 2100 are likely.
11-28 – Retesting the low and a buying opportunity this week with Gold. The USD make have dropped which means that metals could see a reversal and rally this week.
12-5 – Gold at a critical junction here and we either see the drop in the USD this week and a turn in Gold or we see a full retest of the low at 1725. Either way bigger picture Gold is still bullish.
12-12 and 19 – Higher low and a conversion of 1800 and the turn for Gold is in. Higher than expected inflation on the CPI confirms the bullish bias on Gold into next year.
12-26 – Conversion of 1800 may be in progress. This week tends to be bullish for gold so a conversion of 1800 and we open 1855 next. If we cannot hold the retest and convert 1800 we can still see 1725.
1-2 – GC has converted 1800, looking for the trend line at 1855 next. DX has broken the middle band and must stay below middle to support metals to continue to climb short term.
1-9 – Gold has broken 1800 and will likely see 1777-1770 and the lower bollie and then rally. DC is falling and more downside with push gold higher. Gold needs to convert 1800 to confirm more upside.
1-16 – Gold should convert 1805 as support and continue higher this week, Next step up is 1840 then 1855. Trend line resistance expected on the first pass.
1-23 – Gold made the 1840 target and now headed to 1855. From there a support test and higher highs to convert the resistance trend line and the turn is confirmed.
1-30 – Gold made target at 1855 and the retrace was deeper than expected. Trend line support being tested, 1820 needs to convert to confirm the next major legg higher.
2-6 – Watching the 20-25 area for resistance and if seen we can open a legg lower into 1720-40. If it happens it will be quick and would be a great long setup. If we convert 25 then we have higher prices coming. We have been compressing in Gold for some time now, a break up is my lean for Gold longer term.
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COMPLETED TRADES
Track Record of Completed Trades
The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 9 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $225,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.
Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.
Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.
Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.
Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.
Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.
*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.
Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th
We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th
The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.
Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd
We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.
Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th
We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.
Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th
We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.
06th Feb 2022
