The Weekly Call – Trade Setups for the Week of November 25th

The Weekly Call provides perspective on high-quality setups and trading strategies focused in the Commodity world. My current performance shows a 777% return since October 2016. The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach.

Markets are beginning to speculate on a June interest rate cut, which is wishful thinking. It may take a few more months for the realization to set in, but retail sales for the holidays are guarded, jobs numbers are higher, and we still have a recession ahead of us.  First sign will be retail sales from Friday not meeting expectations. I am still expecting a recession next year as the inverted yield curve is very reliable.    A weaker dollar should make US exports more competitive and looking for a rally in Soybeans. Also watch crude, gold, gasoline, diesel, and wheat for moves in the next few weeks. Looking higher into the CL 105 area.   Dry conditions in Brazil is creating concerns about crops from that region. Energies may have found a low last week, looking for follow thru this week.  The rotation out of stocks into Gold and Bonds is still expected to continue, Gold has reversed as predicted last week, look for Gold to continue higher into 2050 which is in line with our forecasts.  Continue to look long in instruments such as Soybeans, Hogs, Live Cattle, Platinum, Gold and Silver.

All trades are posted on our Private Twitter Feed for subscribers and are in the track record posted below under Completed Trades.   I am now trading 15 lots given the account balance and will increase as appropriate given changes in the account balance. See some of my completed trade videos below.

The Weekly Call can now be auto-traded on Striker.com. Just call Striker Securities and open an account of at least $25,000 and every trade I make here will be made for you automatically there. I am planning to use the same methodology and risk management approach with the auto-traded account at Striker that I have been using here. If you have a Daily Update or Trader Triple Play membership, there is no subscription fee for the auto-traded account at Striker. For more information, call Striker.com and speak with William at (800) 669-8838. For more information, you can also watch this video from our subscriber Q&A HERE.   Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see our Disclaimer for more information.

The trades below are discussed on the Daily Update: Click Here for a FREE Trial

Sugar

 

1-1-23 – No change in forecast here, weather still a driving force with La Nina, 21.50 last legg up expected before seeing $19.

1-8 – The turn is in and look for the trend line next as support. Higher highs are coming to 22.50 once the retest completes.

1-15 – So far so good, no change in forecast. 18.50 next the higher highs to 22.50.

1-29 Change in forecast here as Sugar has broken higher so expect a 5th wave higher then retest into 19.50-20 then higher higher into $22.50 next.

2-5 No change in forecast, retrace expected into $20 then higher into 22.50-23.50 next.

2-12 – Forecast remains the same, more retest needed first as a wave C then look higher into 22.50.

2-19 – Still waiting on the retest into 18.70 or so then the next legg higher.  Look for a setup with an RSI in the 30s.

2-26 – Still waiting on the retest into 18.70 or so then the next legg higher. No change to forecast.

3-5 – Negative D on RSI and still needs to see a retest into minimum 19.20. Waiting on the next setup long, 22.50 is still target.

3-12 – Negative D on RSI and still needs a retest, looking for another long entry into 22.50.

3-19 – Retest finally underway and look for support near the monthly pivot at $20. Buy for a long into 22.50.

3-26 – Retest into monthly pivot at $20 then 22.50 target still expected.

4-2 – Target made and likely wave Y complete – retest $21 then look for 23.50 next.

4-9 – Made 23.50…… Big extended wave Y wave here and looking for it to revert into the monthly pivot or so over the next few weeks. Higher highs expected

4-16 – Retest has started from the extended wave Y, looking for 22.40 or 21.50 the higher highs to complete the pattern.

4-23 – Higher high and neg D setup here and retest into 22-22.50 has started. Way overbought here.

4-30 – An expected wave Y, and a retest is still badly needed, way overbought.  Lower to $23 support, possible three wave move before we see higher highs.

5-7 – Sugar into a wave B here and likely we see wave C lower into at least $24, possible we see full target into $23. Still overbought.

5-14 – Still overbought on the daily chart and needs wave C lower, support trend line is close and looking for a break and a $23 print.

5-21 – A break of the trend line and looking for a $23 print next.

5-28 – Breaking down, not yet at first target at $23, should be seen this week.

6-4 – SB still looking for lower low at least into 24.20 – RSI has a long way to go.

6-11 – Sugar wave B as expected, it may mill around here for a while, lean is lower into $22 for wave C.

6-18 – Wave B should break this week, lean is lower into $22 for a buy.

6-25 – Wave C is underway and looking for $22 and a reversal and new highs expected.

7-1 – Wave C has made target, looking for a reversal pattern this week.

7-9 – Wave C has made target at $22 as discussed, now looking for a long setup and may need a minor lower low to enable pos D. Looking for higher highs.

7-16 – Looking for a retest of the low and a turn higher into he November Window an $28

7-23 – Breaking up and no change in forecast, still expecting $28 in Novi.

7-30 – No change in forecast, expecting expecting continuation higher into $28 target.

8-6 – Small flag forming, look for support at the lower band and higher into the $28 target.

8-13 Flag breaking up – follow through means we are on the way to $28 target

8-20 Support found at broken flag trend line, lean is long into $28 target.

8-27 Breaking up and looking for $28 as next target in November.

9-3 Continuation expected and higher highs into $28. support 24.30

9-10, 9-17, 9-24, 9/30 No change in forecast, continuation expected higher into $28

10-8 and 10-15 and 10-22 and 10-29 and 11-5 – Flag has broken up, follow thru coming to target $28-28.50.

11-12, 11-19, 11-25 – target made and a reversal into $22 can occur at any time.

Coffee

 

1-8 – Consolidation is coiling the market and there is a compression warning on Coffee. Lean long into 180 then 210.

1-15 – Compression broke lower last week and low is possible here, my see a lower low to 140 to set up positive D on RSI. Lean is still long and March window 180-85 expected.

1-29 – Coffee breaking higher and should see 180 next, likely retest into 162 then higher highs into March.

2-5 – Lean is long and retest not deep enough yet, wait for RSI. $210 next target into March.

2-12 – Same forecast this week and still waiting on the wave C lower to finish the retracement. Higher into 210 still expected.

2-19 – Looking for 210 into March, retracement expected first  and an RSI in the 30s.

2-26 – Close to target we need a 5th wave higher into time and price window.

3-5 – Lean is still long and close to an RSI of 30, looking for the 5th legg higher into 200-210 then consolidation then higher into 240.

3-12 – Looking for wave 5 higher into 200-210, once seen then a full retrace and then hang on for a big move to 240 next.

3-19 – Flag breaking up and expecting a 5th wave higher into 200 then a consolidation to where we are now then the big advance to 240 next.

3-26 – Lean is still long overall and 5th leg expected into $200 then consolidation then next step up into $240 target.

4-2 – Lean is still long and looking for $200 next as a wave 5. No break of trend line yet but looking or it later this week.

4-9 – Broken flag and now look for $200. 5th wave in play.

4-16 – Target made. Looking for a pullback and then higher to 240. Retest has started.

4-23 – Higher high and a negative D setup and lower to 184 is likely. Higher highs expected into 240

4-30 – Near the support area of 180-184, lean is long and expecting a turn this week and higher highs to 240.

5-7 – Retest target made in the 180 area, lean is long into 240, turn is not yet confirmed, can still possibly make the lower support trend line.

5-14 – Retest has made full target and has made the trend line. Lean is long here into end of July and 240. Looking for the rally to confirm above 188.

5-21 – Support test at the trend line, and has conformed above 188. Lean is long into 240.

5-28 – Breaking the support trend line and DX having an influence, needs to recover the trend line to open 240.

6-4 – A last legg lower likely into 170 which is the support trend line then lean is long into 7-29 window and 240.

6-11 – Breaking up and did not see the 170 full target, lean is long here into 240, retest of broken trend line expected this week.

6-18 – Breaking up and has retested broken trend line, looking for $240 next.

6-25 – Lean is still long and DX pushing this a little lower, so waiting for the DX turn this week and giving this a little room. 240 still target.

7-1 – Coffee over throwing a support trend line and DX close to a turn here, giving this a little room.

7-9 – Coffee is over throwing a support trend line in a three down, lean is still long here and the pattern should break up. Columbia has 7 year low production, higher coming.

7-16 – Looking for a conversion of Monthly Pivot to see higher highs into the end of October. Production low should drive prices higher as demand is growing.

7-23 – Start of a rally Friday, could be the beginning of the move on Coffee higher into October.

7-30 – Lean is long and retesting support trend line. Bulls must perform this week, maintaining the forecast long into October.

8-6 – Follow thru last week is encouraging, look for the rally to continue this week and into 10-29.

8-13 – Support trend line holding up price, this week the bulls need to show up and rally above the previous high

8-20 – Looking for a rally back through the resistance trend line. Once seen we target the 220 area.

8-27 – Lean is long here and a few days of rally has not yet confirmed higher highs, convert the trend line and we open 220 area.

9-3 – Looking for the resistance trend line to break this week, USD likely to fall as well. Decision on this rally this week.

9-10 – Still waiting on the break up and the resistance trend line to break, Bollinger bands are extremely tight, a move is coming.

9-17, 9-24 – Break up may just be beginning, not far enough to confirm a turn, follow thru needed Monday.

9-30 – Low retest and a better long setup here, looking for a confirmed turn this week

10-8 – No reversal yet, turn in DX may support this this week. Convert the middle band and we have a reversal.

10-15 – Start of a rally, waiting for the confirm when we convert the middle band. Looks like the turn may be in.

10-22 and 10-29 – Turn is in and watch for a middle band retest and higher highs expected to 200

11-5 – Retest is done and higher highs now expected into the declining resistance trend line.

11-12, 11-19, 11-25 – More upside expected, still targeting $200

Live Cattle

 

1-1-23 – Topping out and retrace in progress. Watch for 152 as support then 162 into the end of February.

1-8 – Retracement incomplete, needs a lower low first before we can see continuation into February.

1-15 – Waiting on wave C, no change to forecast. Once trend line is broken then look for the next rally higher.

1-29 – Bullish Line Cattle thru 2-28, Wave C done and higher highs expected into 164.

2-5 – Live Cattle resistance, retest into 161 then higher into 165 into the end of February.

2-12 – More retrace expected in LE then the last legg higher into 165-66 to complete the pattern. Once seen, a larger retrace into 158 is expected.

2-19 – Topping out here and may have a little left. Big pull back expected into 158 area next.

2-26 – Retrace may have started, looking for 158 next as next step down.

3-5 – Retrace has started, 162 floor ceiling possible support then 158. Lean is still bullish into 190 the end of this year.

3-12 – Lower expected as the retrace is underway.  162 is next target. Lean is still bullish into the end of this year.

3-19 – 162 made and 158 still possible. Lean is long here for Cattle, looking for a positive D setup and a last legg lower.

3-26 – Live Cattle ahead of Feeder Cattle, we can see the lower trend line so mind your stops. Lean is long overall into 166.

4-2 – Live Cattle breaking up and likely headed to 166, retest to broken resistance trend line needed first.

4-9 – Live Cattle gap up and setting up neg D on RSI. Looking for this last legg up to 166 to end soon. pull back into 156 expected.

4-16 – Retest has started here also and 166 target essentially made. Looking for a decent pull back here with the Neg D setup on RSI. 156 target area.

4-23 – Lean is long and retest in progress, look for 161 next then possibly we can see 156.

4-30 – Retrace still in progress and lean is long but must see at least 160 before turning.

5-7 – Retest and lower expected, price has made the gap test as expected and next step is resistance in the 163 area then lower lows into 156-7

5-14 – Three down and looking for the next legg lower as a flag has formed. Looking for next step down into 156-7.

5-21 – Flag printing and looking for lower into 158 next.

5-28 – Flag not yet breaking down, channel has completed, looking for a turn this week.

6-4 – Big move on Live Cattle, lean is still long and retacement required for next buying point in the 166 area. Lean long here until January.

6-11 – Coming off as expected, big squeezes usually have little support underneath them. Lean is still long look for 168 support.

6-18 – Wave C has started and looking for 168 then higher highs into the end of the year.

6-25 – Still needs to see a 7th swing lower into 168 before we see the next major advance.

7-1 – Like Cattle over throwing a trend line and a double bottom coming, overbought and looking for a move lower this week.

7-9 – Live Cattle head count shortage still a problem and higher highs still expected into January. Retest first to make room on RSI then higher highs.

7-16 – Higher high, neg D, retest of support required here and higher highs into the end of the year

7-23 – Possible turn, no confirm yet, needs to convert the trend line, lower lows coming.

7-30 – Broken trend line and more retest coming, convert middle band look for $174 next then higher highs.

8-6 – flag forming here and lower low likely. FC and LE are still stretched and higher is expected into January, we need more retest first.

8-13 – Flag breaking down and looking for 178 support then the turn higher.

8-20 – First three down complete, lean is long but likely we see bounce and another three down into 175 or so.

8-27 – One more legg lower as the FC chart needs a lower low. Once seen, then look long for new highs by year end.

9-3 – Still needs a lower low and a turn may be in, 176 target expected and may see 175.

9-10 – Needs a serious retrace and so does Feeder Cattle. Looking for a break lower then 176.

9-17, 9-24, 9-30 – Breaking up so watch for a retest into Monthly Pivot minimum and if we convert then we see full retest into 176 then higher. Higher highs into year end expected.

10-8 – Retest may be completed here or we see resistance at 189 then lower to 184. Break the low Monday/Tuesday we see 184. Higher highs into year end expected.

10-15 – Wave C lower to complete the patterns, then look for the next major rally.

10-22 – Wave C has started, watch for 182 next

10-29 and 11-5 – Made target and looking for the last legg higher into the end of this year, 195 target.

11-12, 11-19, 11-25 – lower low here is a buying opportunity, looking for the next rally to new highs into the new year

Gold

 

12-25 – The Weekly Call has taken profits on the Gold trade – likely the turn is in and we should see 1750 as the next support test before turning higher into April 2023 and 1950

1-1-23 – Retest is expected and looking to reload when 1750 and perhaps 1680 is seen. Lean is still long into April.

1-8 – I am bullish Gold but it needs a retracement. Looking for 1750 next then higher highs.

1-15 – Same forecast, I am bullish but gold very over bought, move driven by the USD. Likely we see the turn this week and 1800 pull back target then higher highs.

1-29 – Gold will likely retest here as USD ready for a rally and should see 1832 as retest target. Alternate is retest into 1900 then retest the high then 1832 target. Higher into 2050 into April expected.

2-5 – Gold has made the initial targets as discussed, retest and 1850-1832 then the turn. Looking for major rally into 2050.

2-12 – Retrace in Gold continued lower into 1850-1832 then look for a reversal. DX will likely continue to rally into 106 or so.

2-19 – Target made on Gold and looking for a reversal and next step higher into 2050. DX rally may complete in the 105 area.

2-26 – Turn expected this week and looking for higher highs. Convert 1872 and we open 2050 next. DX spike has made the4 105 area.

3-5 – Middle band has converted, lean is long into 2050, look for a retest of middle band on a daily basis and higher higher.

3-12 – Against the upper band on a daily basis, middle band at 1842 retest expected then higher highs expect into 2050.

3-19 – Big move and the banking crisis, which is a non-crisis, is creating a lot of fear. PTSD from 2009, maybe. Retest needed into 1900 then look for 2050.

3-26 – Nice rally with banking crisis and flight to safety. Expected to continue into 4-5 and 2050 as discussed.

4-2 – Gold consolidating and the break up that is coming should make 2050 and then cause a pull back int the consolidation pattern. Still bullish Gold.

4-9 – Pop higher and 2050 as expected. Target made. Right now small little flat so a minor higher high likely before it comes off into 1975.

4-16 – Gold has started the retest and has broken the support trend line, retest the broken trend line and lower to 1975 expected.

4-23 – Lower low and pos D setup in the 70-75 area then higher highs expected.

4-30 – Heading to the lower low as discussed, loo for the 70-75 area as discussed as support.

5-7 – Gold has made the retest target of 2000 in a flat, we may see a marginal lower low to set up positive divergence, lean is still long into 2200.

5-14 – Gold may see 1970 next and once we have a pos D setup on RSI, lean long into 2200 next.

5-21 – Target made….. lower low gives a pos D setup, lean is long here into 2200 next.

5-28 – Trend line and target made. Low low gave a pos D setup and looking long and a conversion of 74 to confirm

6-4 – Support at the trend line or if we break we can see a retest of the low. Lean is long into 2200 into Q4 this year.

6-11 – May retest the low and if it does a great long setup, also can still see a break up if DX converts 103.10 in which case we see the rally into the fall into 2200.

6-18 – Gold now turning and needs to convert the daily middle BB to see 2150 next. Lean is long into September.

6-25 – A retest of the trend line again as middle band was resistance. This time we see the rally and need to convert middle band. DX turn expected this week.

7-1 – Gold just beginning to break up, looking for middle band to convert on a daily basis to confirm the long into 2150.

7-9 – IHS and looking for a rally in metals with the drop in DX this week. Monthly pivot should break up, looking for new highs into year end.

7-16 – Gold breaking up and DX drop has signaled a turn. Looking for higher highs into the end of this year into 2150.

7-23 – Gold breaking up and DX drop did help, lean is long and DX retrace needs to finish into 101 then look for next move higher in Gold.

7-30 – DX rally last week off the FOMC meeting and looking for a DX turn and also a Gold turn. Looking long here into 2150.

8-6 – Flag formed here, and buy signals fixing, looking long into 2150.

8-13 – Flag here is full developed, this should break up this week. USD will need to cooperate. 2150 target.

8-20 – Flag well developed here, waiting on the break up. Gold is extended and higher highs into end of September expected.

8-27 – Nice rally to start, DX has not yet turned so retest and higher expected. End of Sept. window still holding strong.

9-3 – Lean is long and a strong showing nu GC in the face of a DX rally. Looking for 2050 by end of September.

9-10 – Higher low and DX needs to cooperate and turn to see higher highs in Gold. Still looking for 2050 into end of September.

9-17, 9-24 – Breaking up – need to see continuation Monday to confirm this turn and DX needs to reverse.

9-30 – Gold has broken down and nice flag printing. DX is very expected and a reversal back above 70 confirms the turn and look for 2050 next

10-8 – USD has a sell signal fixed so watch for the confirmed turn above 1870 this week.

10-15 – As mentioned last week, DX sell signal fixed and decline has started, GC rally playing out as expected. 2050 next target.

10-22 – On the way to target and at the top of a 5th wave, retest expected this week then higher highs.

10-29 – Bigger retest into 50-60 then higher into the 2050 target by mid-November.

11-5 – Retest expected into 70 then look for higher highs into 2050, will see 2150 into Feb next year.

11-12 – Retest made target and then some, lean is still long and looking for a turn this week.

11-19. 11-25 – Turn is confirmed, looking for new highs into 2050 next

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COMPLETED TRADES

Track Record of Completed Trades

The purpose of this blog is to demonstrate how to swing trade futures using our methodology to select high-quality setups and manage the trade with our risk management approach. This track record is based on entries and exits as posted in this blog. I am currently using 15 lots for the Striker trades which is based on this account being over $375,000. Each lot for auto trading at Striker requires $25,000 per lot. See the videos below for more information.

Track Record January 2022 thru December 2022 Click Here.

Track Record January 2021 thru December 2021 Click Here.

Track Record January 2020 thru December 2020 Click Here.

Track Record January 2019 thru December 2019 Click Here.

Track Record January 2018 thru December 2018 Click Here.

Track Record October 2016 – December 2017 Click Here.

*** Trading futures contracts and futures options involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be appropriate for all investors. By reading this web site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Trading strategies referenced on this web site and associated documents and emails are only suggestions, no representation is being made that they will achieve profits or losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.. See our disclaimer here.

Completed trade in Cattle as of November 28th

We expect subscribers to have captured 60% of the swing in live cattle which is over $14,500 in profit using a margin of only $5,115. A great example of using leverage in futures.

 

Completed Trade in Coffee as of December 12th

The total swing was $37.00 and we expect subscribers to have captured 60% of a wing or $22 in coffee for a profit of over $25,500 using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures. See the video below for the review of the trade.

 

Completed Trade in Natural Gas as of January 2nd

We were stopped out of out last 1/3 position as weather-related news created a gap down on January 2nd and a possible flat with support at 3.196. This concludes our trade with natural gas; we exit with 550 ticks on 2/3s of a position with $8,500 in profit.

Completed Trade in Coffee as of January 19th

We exited the coffee trade on January 19th with $17 or over $15,000 in profit using a margin of $8,850. A great example of using leverage in futures.

Completed Trade in Gold as of February 8th

We exited the gold trade on February 8th with over $14,000 in profit. We entered on January 3rd and held the trade into the high window. We will re-enter gold in a few weeks after a backtest.

Written by:

Stan Nabozny

Stan is a 20 year retail trading veteran, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and Co-Founder of The Art of Chart. His specialties include using futures and options to trade Energies, Precious Metals, Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Softs, Grains and other commodities. Stan believes that Risk Management and Trader Psychology are more important that technical analysis and spends his time teaching and coaching other traders on these topics. Stan uses various trading systems and technical analysis approaches that integrate time and price in his work. See his latest articles here and www.huffingtonpost.com.

25th Nov 2023

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